Commanders vs. Saints Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Derek Carr Likely to Miss Rest of Season

• The Saints allow 134.2 rushing yards (25th) and 246.3 passing yards (28th) per game.

• The Commanders are fourth in the NFL in points per game at 28.9. 

• The Saints head into this game with several injuries, including Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, Bub Means, Chris Olave, and more. 

The 5-8 New Orleans Saints are home in Week 15 against the 8-5 Washington Commanders. The Saints are in third place in the NFC South, while the Commanders are second in the NFC East. 

Below are the odds for this game, my best bet, predictions, and best player props. 

Commanders vs. Saints Odds 

Look below for the moneyline, point spread, and totals odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. By using our promo code WSNDYW at sign-up, you’ll get your next 10 bets doubled in winnings after betting $1. 

Commanders vs. Saints: My Pick

• My Pick: Commanders Spread at -7 (-120) at Caesars

The Commanders are sizable favorites here, but the Saints have an interim head coach, Darren Rizzi. Their quarterback is likely out for the season, and most of their key offensive weapons, with the exception of running back Alvin Kamara, are on injured reserve. 

Additionally, the Commanders allow just 190.7 passing yards, which is fifth-best in the NFL. 

Playing in a dome, I think the Saints have trouble against the dynamic Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. 

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Commanders vs. Saints Predictions 

The Commanders are 8-5 after going 1-3 over their last four games. However, in that span, they’ve scored 26 in three of those four games. 

Season-long, the Commanders average 28.9 points per game, fourth in the NFL. 

They are dealing with some injuries, including running back Austin Ekeler, who landed on injured reserve, and wide receiver Noah Brown, who is questionable with a torso injury. There is good injury news, though: cornerback Marshon Lattimore will suit up and make his Commanders' debut against his old team. 

Still, they’ll take on a Saints team that’s been upended by injuries and has fired its head coach. 

Quarterback Derek Carr is likely out for the season, and players like Taysom Hill, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Paulson Adebo have been placed on injured reserve. 

Now, the Saints will sport an offense that consists of either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler at quarterback, Kamara at running back, and a trio of receivers, including Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Cedrick Wilson Jr., and Kevin Austin Jr. 

The Commanders allow 190.7 passing yards per game (fifth), but they have been weak against the run, allowing 137 rushing yards per game (27th). 

Still, with how limited the quarterback position is for the Saints, I expect this will help the Commanders zero-in on the rushing attack led by Kamara. 

Kamara has 223 carries for 938 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and six touchdowns. He has 64 receptions on 84 targets for 485 yards and one receiving touchdown. 

That’s the Commanders' assignment on defense: slow down Kamara. 

The Saints' defense allows 134.2 rushing yards (25th) and 246.3 passing yards (28th) per game. However, they’ve held teams to 22.5 points per game, tied for 11th in the league. 

In taking the Saints, the only way I can rationalize it is the Saints and Kamara racking up four-ish yards per play, controlling the clock, and the Commanders running out of time. 

Otherwise, the Commanders are hands-down the better team here, with more avenues to win and cover the spread. 

Commanders vs. Saints Best Player Props

Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime TD (-135 at Caesars Sportsbook)

In the Commanders' previous game, Robinson Jr. ran 16 times for 103 yards and a touchdown. This marked his eighth touchdown of the season. He’s now had 138 carries for 640 yards. 

Fellow running back Austin Ekeler is out for the season, and now, Robinson will continue to get 15-plus carries per game. 

On the road and in a dome, Robinson Jr. will take a Saints defense that’s allowing approximately 21 carries for 107 yards (5.03 yards per carry) and 1.08 rushing touchdowns per game. 

The Commanders are favored by a touchdown in this game, which sets up nicely for Robinson to get the ball. The Commanders will be leading and have no need to throw. 

Robinson Jr. will get in the end zone this week. 

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Alvin Kamara Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-117 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Saints quarterback Derek Carr is likely done for the season with a hand injury, and the Saints will turn things over to either Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener. Additionally, the Saints have numerous injuries on offense, leaving Kamara as the only legitimate offensive weapon that’s left. 

While this could prove to be positive for his value, we’ve seen him still get involved in the passing game recently but fall short of this line of 32.5 yards. 

Over the last three games, he’s had 32 receiving yards or less twice. In the game he exceeded this line, he had just 35 yards. 

He had at least targets and four receptions per game in that same span.

I think Kamara will rack up some catches, but the Commanders' sole mission on defense will be Kamara. 

This season, the Commanders are allowing just three receptions for 23 yards per game to the running back position. 

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Jayden Daniels Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-148 at Caesars Sportsbook)

A dynamic threat at the quarterback position, Daniels may not need to throw a bunch in this game. 

This season, he’s finished with one or fewer passing touchdowns in eight of 13 games. He’s had multiple touchdowns in each of his last two games, but the Saints, despite all their other issues, have actually been quite stiff against passing touchdowns. 

They’re allowing 0.92 passing touchdowns per game and have only allowed multiple touchdown passes four times all season. 

I expect a lot of running from Daniels and Robinson Jr. here.

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Commanders vs. Saints: How to Watch

• When: Sunday, Dec. 15  at 1:00 PM ET

• Where: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA

• Where to Watch: FOX

Commanders vs. Saints Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Commanders vs. Saints Injuries

• Commanders running back Austin Ekeler was placed on injured reserve with a head/neck injury. 

• Commanders wide receiver Jamison Crowder has been placed on injured reserve with a calf injury. 

• Commanders guard Andrew Wylie is questionable. 

• Saints quarterback Derek Carr is week-to-week with a hand injury. 

• Saints linebacker D’Marco Jackson is questionable with an ankle injury. 

• Saints offensive tackle Nick Saldiveri has been placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. 

• Saints defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon is out with an Achilles injury. 

• Saints tight end Taysom Hill has been placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. 

• Saints wide receiver Bub Means has been placed on injured reserve with an ankle injury. 

• Saints wide receiver Chris Olave has been placed on injured reserve with a head injury.

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