Colts vs. Vikings Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Change at Quarterback Won't Help Against the Vikings Defense

• The Minnesota Vikings odds to win the NFC North collapsed after two straight losses

• The Indianapolis Colts are starting Joe Flacco at quarterback instead of Anthony Richardson

• The Vikings defense ranks above league average in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA

After a rough start to the year for Anthony Richardson, the Indianapolis Colts are giving the veteran Joe Flacco the starting nod against the Minnesota Vikings. Unfortunately for Flacco, he finds himself in a less than ideal situation as the Vikings' defense enters the contest ranked well above league average in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA. Factor in the Colts struggling to defend against either area of the offense and the Vikings are in a position to climb back up the NFC North division standings with a win.

Colts vs. Vikings Odds 

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Colts vs. Vikings My Pick

• My Pick: Colts Total Under 20.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Even with Joe Flacco getting the start, generating consistent offensive production will be a challenge as the Vikings' defense ranks near the top of the board in both Def Success Rate, DVOA, and EPA. Their exotic scheme puts opposing quarterbacks and offensive linemen in a pretzel as they call the highest rate of quarters coverage and the blitz in a variety of pre-snap formations. That will help their front seven break through a Colts offensive line who ranks top-5 in Adjusted Sack Rate while simultaneously putting Joe Flacco in heavy pressured situations to stall out drives.

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Colts vs. Vikings Predictions 

Not only will Joe Flacco struggle to generate pass production, but star running back Jonathan Taylor may also find it tough to get to the second level of the Vikings defense as Minnesota excels at stuffing the run. The Colts' offensive line will also do Taylor no favors in regard to opening up running lanes for him to exploit as they rank near dead last in Adjusted Line Yards. Factor in the Vikings' tendency to send their linebackers into the trenches and Taylor may be forced to deal with contact before even getting to the line.

Colts vs. Vikings Best Player Props

Jonathan Taylor Under 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

With the Colts offensive line entering the contest ranked near dead last in Adjusted Line Yards, Jonathan Taylor will be hard-pressed to generate rush production against a Vikings front seven who ranks top-10 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Taylor may also see a decrease in rush attempts when in the middle of the field as the Colts may opt into using him in more of a receiving role to help stretch out the Vikings' coverage in the form of dump-offs and routes to the flats.

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Joe Flacco Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-185 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

With the Colts' offense having no clear path for success against one of the best defensive units in the league in terms of Def DVOA, getting into a scoring position will be a struggle for Indianapolis. With a decrease in scoring opportunities comes a higher chance of cashing the under on Flacco’s passing touchdown prop, especially since Indianapolis may be better off keeping the ball on the ground when inside the 20 to help limit the variance that comes with throwing into crowded coverage.

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Sam Darnold Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

While the Colts' offense is expected to struggle, Sam Darnold and the Vikings' pass attack draw a favorable matchup as they face off against a defense who ranks near dead last in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Better yet for Darnold, he will get the opportunity to play in a clean pocket as the Colts defensive line struggles to generate pressure. This gives his Offensive Player of the Year contender Justin Jefferson more time in the open field to create separation from the Colts' coverage, giving Darnold higher-quality passing lanes for him to throw to.

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings How to Watch

• When: Sunday, November 3, 8:20 p.m. ET

• Where: U.S Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

• Where to Watch: NBC

Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings Best Promos and Sportsbooks

Take a look at some of the best NFL promos and top NFL betting sites available in the U.S. for Sunday night’s primetime matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings. Our favorites are listed in the table below.

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings Injuries

Indianapolis Colts Injuries

• WR Michael Pittman Jr - Questionable

• WR Josh Downs - Questionable

Minnesota Vikings Injuries

• LB Blake Cashman - Questionable