Chiefs vs. Texans Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Two Teams Barely Still Alive

• Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been listed as a full participant in practice despite his ankle sprain

• Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has three interceptions over the last two games

• Chiefs offensive lineman Joe Thuney is slated to play left tackle. He allowed 10 pressures last week. Playing left guard in every other game this season, he allowed just 11 pressures

The 13-1 Kansas City Chiefs will host the 9-5 Houston Texans in Week 16 of the NFL season. The Chiefs have clinched the AFC West, while the Texans have clinched the AFC South. Both teams have a poor record against the spread. The Chiefs are 5-8-1, while the Texans are 6-7-1.

Below are the odds for this game, my best bet, predictions, and best player props.

Chiefs vs. Texans Odds

Look below for the moneyline, point spread, and totals odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Using our exclusive link and promo code WSNDYW, you’ll get your next 10 bets doubled in winnings after betting $1.

Chiefs vs. Texans: My Pick

• My Pick: Texans to cover the spread at +3.5 (-115) at Caesars

This line has been all over the place, given the uncertainty surrounding Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He was a full participant at practice, and it seems he’ll be suiting up.

Still, the Chiefs offense has struggled this season. They’re one of four teams that haven’t scored 30 points this season, and Mahomes is now dealing with an ankle injury. 

The Texans are appealing, thanks to the hook added onto the spread.

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Chiefs vs. Texans Predictions 

The Texans defense has been inconsistent lately, allowing 32 points to Tennessee and 20 to Jacksonville.

That said, there’s also been plenty of bright spots.

They’re averaging 1.36 interceptions per game and have at least one in eight of the last nine games. To be fair, that average was inflated a bit after the Lions game, but those interceptions still happened.

Both teams are in the top 10 in the least number of points allowed per game. The Texans allow 21.4, while the Chiefs surrender 18.5.

While both offenses are uninspiring, I’d say the Chiefs are slightly worse lately.

Let’s compare the quarterbacks.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud has thrown for less than 250 yards in nine of 14 games. He’s also thrown just one touchdown or less in—you guessed it—nine of 14 games.

At the same time, Mahomes also hasn’t been all too productive.

He’s completing 66.7% of his passes for 3,348 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt. He also has 15 turnover-worthy plays.

Now, dealing with an ankle injury, he’ll face a defense that’s allowing 302.4 yards per game (fourth), has 45 sacks (second), a plus-13 turnover differential (third), and has 19 interceptions (second).

The sack total is notable because, under pressure this season, Mahomes has completed 64 of 137 passes (46.7%) for 816 yards (six yards per attempt), six touchdowns, and four interceptions.

He’s been pressured on 32.6% of his dropbacks, and again, despite suiting up and logging a full practice, he still has an ankle injury.

I’m expecting a low-scoring game, and the Texans, thanks to their defense, have a real chance to steal one at Arrowhead.

Chiefs vs. Texans Best Player Props

Will Anderson Jr. 1+ Sacks (-104) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Texans are one of the best sack units in the NFL, and a big part of that has been Anderson Jr. He has 10.5 sacks this season and this week, he’ll face a Chiefs offensive line with Joe Thuney lining up at left tackle.

Thuney is a fantastic guard but struggled in Week 15 against the Cleveland Browns. He allowed 10 pressures. No, he didn’t surrender a sack, but let’s put those 10 pressures in context.

Before this, playing left guard, he allowed 11 pressures all season.

He nearly equaled his season-long total in one game at left tackle.

Anderson Jr. has a fantastic matchup against an ailing Mahomes.

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Derek Stingley Jr. 1+ Interceptions (+430) at Caesars Sportsbook

Stingley Jr. has been having an All-Pro caliber season. He has three interceptions over the last two games.

This week, he’s facing Mahomes, who has 15 turnover-worthy plays.

Mahomes hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 11, but he has five turnover-worthy plays in that span.

He could avoid the side Stingley Jr. is on, but given the +430 odds, I’d wager a half-unit on this prop.

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Isiah Pacheco Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-129) at Caesars Sportsbook

Since returning from injury, Pacheco has played three games and has logged 56 yards or less in all of them. 

Given Mahomes’ ankle injury, there should be no doubt that the Texans defensive game plan will be centered around not only pressuring Mahomes early and often but thwarting this rushing attack as the Chiefs could turn to it more with Mahomes being hurt. 

The Texans are allowing just 82 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and less than four yards per carry. 

There have been 33 running backs to log a carry against the Texans, and only eight have surpassed 56 rushing yards. 

Also, Pacheco hasn’t gotten more than 14 carries in any of the three games he’s played since coming back from injury. 

He’s finishing well under this mark.

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Chiefs vs. Texans: How to Watch

• When: Saturday, Dec. 21 at 1:00 PM ET

• Where: GEHA Stadium at Arrowhead in Kansas City, MO

• Where to Watch: NBC

Chiefs vs. Texans Best Promos and Sportsbooks

If you’re looking for the best odds for the Chiefs vs. Texans matchup or any other Week 16 NFL game, check out our top recommended NFL betting sites. Caesars is my go-to sportsbook for this matchup as it offers the best odds, point spread, and a fantastic menu of player prop options. 

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Chiefs vs. Texans Injuries

The following players haven’t practiced as of Wednesday, Dec. 18

• Texans defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi is questionable with an ankle injury

• Texans wide receiver John Metchie III is questionable with a shoulder injury

• Texans center Juice Scruggs is questionable with a foot injury

• Texans tight end Cade Stover is questionable with an illness

• Chiefs defensive back Chamarri Conner is questionable with a concussion

• Chiefs tackle D.J. Humphries is questionable with a hamstring injury

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