Chiefs vs. Ravens Week 1 TNF Prop Bets and Predictions: Will Mahomes Beat Lamar in AFC Champ. Rematch?

After months of waiting, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Baltimore Ravens in the kick-off to the 2024 NFL season on Thursday Night Football.

The Chiefs defeated the Ravens 17-10 in the AFC Championship Game last winter, spoiling Lamar Jackson’s second NFL MVP season as Patrick Mahomes and co. went on to win their second straight Super Bowl.

A new year presents new chances for players on both teams, including Baltimore’s new arrival, Derrick Henry. But which players are going to stand above the rest on Thursday?

Here are our favorite Chiefs vs. Ravens prop bets for the 2024 NFL season-opener on Thursday Night Football.

Chiefs vs. Ravens Week 1 TNF Odds

Odds for Chiefs vs. Ravens are provided by bet365 Sportsbook. Use our promo code WSN365 to claim your bonus of choice: Claim $200 in bonus bets or a $1,000 safety net.

Chiefs vs. Ravens Week 1 TNF Preview

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season in what was expected to be a “down” year. They lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed but kept most of their important pieces together, including Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Creed Humphrey, and Trent McDuffie, among others.

KC also acquired a pair of speed receivers in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy. The two should add more verticality to the Chiefs’ offense, which has been missing since Tyreek Hill departed for South Beach.

The Ravens, on the other hand, experienced much more losses than the Chiefs, particularly on defense. Patrick Queen, Geno Stone, and defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald all found new homes, as did three-fifths of their offensive line.

There aren’t many players or teams that can consistently be in a position to compete with the Chiefs, and the Ravens are one of the few. A Week 1 road win would go a long way toward building their confidence and sending a warning to the rest of the league, especially after the result of last year’s AFC Championship. 

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Week 1 TNF Chiefs vs. Ravens Prop Bets 

• Derrick Henry anytime touchdown scorer (-105)

• Patrick Mahomes longest completion over 35.5 yards (-115)

• Lamar Jackson under 221.5 passing yards (-110)

Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105) at bet365

Feed the beast! The Ravens led the league in rushing yards per game in 2023 and added arguably the best running back of his generation, “King” Henry, making their ground game as close to unstoppable as there is in the modern NFL.

Henry is a mountain of a man and a bruiser at the goal line. He recorded double-digit rushing touchdowns in six straight seasons, including one in which he only played eight games, and scored 12 last year.

The Chiefs ranked eighth in red zone touchdown percentage allowed but will struggle to keep Henry out of the end zone if the Ravens get inside the 20. The threat of Jackson both as a runner and passer combined with the sheer power of Henry means they won’t be able to commit heavily in any direction, and we believe Baltimore will want to get their new signing a touchdown in his debut.

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Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion Over 35.5 Yards (-115) at bet365

Mahomes has been starved for downfield playmakers for the past couple of seasons. His 6.5 air yards per attempt last year ranked 33rd in a 32-team league, which is arguably the biggest indictment of the team around him and also the biggest credit to him still finding a way to win another Lombardi Trophy.

The arrivals of Brown and Worthy, along with the returns of Kelce and Rashee Rice, should make this Chiefs offense much more explosive. Brown is dealing with a shoulder injury and will likely miss the opener, but the other members (plus the newly-signed JuJu Smith-Schuster) should still open up the field for Mahomes.

The Ravens did not allow many explosive plays last year, but the loss of a starting safety and their defensive coordinator makes this team more likely to suffer communication breakdowns. We also don’t think Mahomes and Andy Reid will be able to resist the opportunity to play with their new toys.

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Lamar Jackson Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-110) at bet365

Lamar—in his second MVP-winning season—averaged 229.9 passing yards per game. That’s a very thin margin compared to his line on Thursday, especially since he’s now going against the second-best defense of a year ago on opening night, when he and his teammates are likely to have more rust and less chemistry.

The Chefs held their opponents to 185.8 passing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the league. The loss of Sneed would be a major issue for other teams, but Kansas City has a proven ability to develop players it drafted, whether that be Sneed, Charvarius Ward, or others.

Baltimore can’t be naive here. It needs to run the ball, control the clock, and win its situations. None of that includes airing the ball out with Lamar, again, especially with the arrival of Henry in the backfield. All of that is why we like him to go under this line on Thursday Night Football Week 1.

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How to Watch Chiefs vs. Ravens

• What: Chiefs vs Ravens TNF Week 1 Game

• When: Thursday, September 5 at 8:20 p.m. ET

• Where: Arrowhead Stadium

• How to Watch: NBC