Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Jason Sanders Under 1.5 FGs (-115) at DraftKings
One of our favorite props from the Germany showdown includes Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders. Here, we’re taking the under of his field goals. Set at 1.5, the Dolphins make a league-low 0.7 field goals per game simply because their offense is so potent, and they score plenty of touchdowns. Also, teams only kick 1.1 field goals per game against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have an offense that you‘re not going to beat with field goals, so many teams will opt to go for it on fourth downs instead of kicking the field goal.
Look for plenty of offense in Germany on Sunday morning in the United States.
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Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+152) at FanDuel
We tried this prop last week against the Broncos, and we’re back to hit here. Against the Broncos, Mahomes threw for just 240 yards and two interceptions. He was ill with the flu before the game, which had to have had some bearing on his performance. I am not taking anything away from the Broncos here, of course, but he was ill before the game.
Against the Dolphins, Mahomes will face a defense that does have Jalen Ramsey back at cornerback. Still, they allow 1.5 passing touchdowns and 25.5 points per game.
The Chiefs pass the ball on 67.3% of their offensive snaps. Expect Mahomes to redeem himself here in front of this European crowd.
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Pick: Travis Kelce Any Time TD (-143) at Caesars
The value for Kelce isn’t great here at -143, but the matchup here screams any-time touchdown for the star tight end.
As mentioned above, the Dolphins allow 25.5 points per game. They’ve also allowed 46 receptions for 461 yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends, and none of them have been remotely on the level of Kelce. This season, the Dolphins have played Gerald Everett, Hunter Henry twice, Adam Trautman, Dawson Knox/Dalton Kincaid, Darren Waller, Hayden Hurst, and Dallas Goedert. There’s some talent in there, but Kelce is the top target on the Chiefs without question, and he’ll see plenty of David Long in this matchup. He’s allowed 17 receptions on 19 targets for 254 yards and a touchdown.
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*All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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