Chiefs vs. Bills NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Player Props
Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 Passing Attempts (-108) at FanDuel
Mahomes registered 41 passing attempts against the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card round (despite the conditions creeping to a real feel of -30), putting him well over this line. However, that game played out in a way that was favorable for the over and in a way we don’t see happening in this one.
The Chiefs held onto the ball for 34:05 last week, nearly three and a half minutes more than their season average of 30:40. The extra time in possession of the ball allowed them to dial up more plays, but we don’t expect a run-heavy Bills squad to afford them the same luxury.
Even if the Chiefs are behind and need Mahomes to be Superman, he’s likely to take off and run when pressured. He averaged just a tick more than this line (37.3) for the season as a whole, but the under makes more sense in this spot.
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Josh Allen Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel
There’s no questioning Allen’s ability or commitment to running the football. He picked up 67 and 74 yards on the ground in his last two outings and 68 and 88 yards in his two playoff encounters with the Chiefs.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady favors the run, and Allen is a firm part of that game plan. He carried the ball an average of 11.3 times over the last three weeks and is facing a Chiefs team that allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season.
With this game set to be played under another cold Buffalo night, Allen’s physicality and affinity for initiating contact will make him a great weapon on the ground. Watch for the Buffalo bruiser to beat and potentially fly over this total.
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Isiah Pacheco Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel
Everything about Pacheco’s aggressiveness, physicality, and running style says that he will be a focal point of the offense in a cagey, cold game against a tough defense with a point to prove.
Pacheco ran a season-high 24 times last week for 89 yards and a touchdown. He went over this line in five of his last seven games, averaging 17.3 carries and 80.7 yards in the process. He did not play against Buffalo in the regular-season fixture but was part of the team’s Super Bowl run last year and will be aware of the magnitude of this matchup.
Buffalo ranked 15th in rushing yards allowed (110.3) and is going to have to stay disciplined against Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. Look for the Chiefs to lean into Pacheco to help keep Allen off the field and control the time of possession, leading to him going over his rushing total.
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Dalton Kincaid 50+ Receiving Yards (+146) at FanDuel
There’s a very viable argument to be made that each of the Bills’ last three games have been their most important games of the season. Kincaid, a rookie first-round tight end, showed up in each of them, averaging 76.7 yards and clearing this total in every instance.
While opposing defenses often pay attention to Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dawson Knox, the Utah product has quietly picked up an important role in the offense. His 21 targets over the last three games were close to twice as many as he received in the three previous weeks, and he led all Bills players in receiving yards in the Wild Card.
Risk-averse bettors can grab this line for over 40.5 yards. However, Kincaid’s growing role and chemistry with Allen are reason enough to believe he can have another strong day, especially if the Bills have to play from behind and end up throwing the ball all over the field.
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How to Watch Chiefs vs. Bills
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Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
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When: Sunday, January 21, 6:40 p.m. ET
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TV/Streaming: CBS
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