Tampa Bay is currently in first place in the NFC South division standings
The Buccaneers are one game back from the Washington Commanders for the last wildcard spot
The Cowboys' front seven ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate
With a one game lead over the Atlanta Falcons for first place in the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in full control of their own destiny with three games left in the regular season. Should the Bucs manage to go 3-0, then they will win the NFC South division title and secure a berth for the playoffs as well. Winning the division is vital for the Bucs as they are currently not in possession of one of the three wildcard spots.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -4 (-110) | -205 | Over 48.5 (-110) |
Dallas Cowboys | +4 (-110) | +170 | Under 48.5 (-110) |
In order to finish the last three weeks of their schedule unblemished, the Bucs must first take care of business on Sunday in a favorable matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Generating defensive production has been a struggle for Dallas this season, especially in regard to stopping the run as their front seven ranks near dead in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. That gives the Bucs an opportunity to sustain their drives down the field, putting them in a great position to clear the over on their team total.
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With the Cowboys' front seven severely struggling with stopping the run, the Bucs' rookie running back Bucky Irving will have the opportunity to thrive on Sunday night. While Irving is in a position to run wild, the Cowboys Rico Dowdle may find it tough to match his level of production as he faces a far more daunting front seven. Dowdle may also be in for a lighter workload as the Cowboys would be wise to attack the Bucs' secondary, increasing the likelihood of him staying under the total on his rushing yardage prop.
As previously mentioned, the Dallas Cowboys defense has been severely underwhelmed in their efforts of stopping the run as their front seven ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their defensive line plays a major role in their struggles as they rank equally as poor in Def Adjusted Line Yards. That means Bucky Irving should find himself with plenty of high-quality rushing lanes for him to exploit, as well as having more room to work with when he gets to the second level of their defense.
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On the other side of the field, the Cowboys Rico Dowdle will find it tough to generate rush production as he faces off against a Bucs front seven who ranks in the top half of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Dowdle may also see a decrease in his number of carries as the Cowboys' best path for success will revolve around the pass as the Bucs' secondary grades out poorly in coverage. With less rush attempts, Dowdle will struggle to clear the over on this total.
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While the Cowboys' front seven has struggled to stop the run, their secondary has been far more productive as they enter the contest ranked top-15 in Def Pass EPA and Def Pass Success Rate. Not only do they excel in coverage, but the Cowboys defensive line also generates pressure at a high rate. When under pressure, Baker Mayfield will have less time in the pocket to let plays develop which hurts his chances of connecting on an explosive play.
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When: Sunday, December 22 at 8:20 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Where to Watch: NBC
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Injuries
QB Baker Mayfield - Questionable
RB Bucky Irving - Questionable
TE Cade Otton - Questionable
LT Tristan Wirfs - Questionable
FS Antoine Winfield Jr - Questionable
Dallas Cowboys Injuries
WR CeeDee Lamb - Questionable
DT Nazi Smith - Questionable
CB Jourdan Lewis - Questionable
FS Malik Hooker - Questionable
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