Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+145) at DraftKings
Last week, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense scored more than 30 points while Mahomes threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns.
This week, he’ll battle the Broncos again. They held him just one touchdown and 306 yards in Week 6, but overall, this season, they’ve allowed 2.3 passing touchdowns per game, which is the most in the league.
The Chiefs offense hasn’t been as potent as years past, but their Week 7 performance could be taking a turn after two games in a row from Rashee Rice, in which he had 72 receiving yards in Week 6 and 60 in Week 7 and also added a touchdown.
Getting “+” money here, Mahomes is historically a lock to nail this wager. He’ll do it again in his second matchup against Denver this season.
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Pick: Travis Kelce Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel
To start the year, Kelce didn’t have 81 receiving yards or more until Week 6 against the Broncos. Now, in back-to-back games, Kelce has gone for at least 124 and had 179 last week against the Chargers.
He caught nine passes on nine targets against the Broncos two weeks ago. He was covered primarily by linebackers Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton. However, his biggest catch, 40 yards, was against Justin Simmons.
Even if you remove that 40-yard catch from his stat sheet, he’s still above 81 yards against them in Week 6.
Take the over on Kelce’s receiving yards.
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Pick: Travis Kelce Any Time TD (-107) at Caesars
As mentioned, Kelce has been on an absolute tear over the past two weeks, including a score last week. He has four on the season. Compared to the other Chiefs pass catchers, he runs the second-most routes and is second in receiving snaps. Remember, he missed Week 1.
He’s dominant in this offense against a team that allows 2.3 passing touchdowns per game.
At just -107, we’ll take a chance on Kelce scoring here for the fifth time this season.
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*All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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