Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints Predictions, Odds, Picks

• The Buffalo Bills defense let the Indy Colts score 41 points against them in Week 11
• Last week New Orleans let the Eagles post forty points on them for a big loss
• Buffalo has not covered the spread in four of their last five games

Bills vs Saints Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook

Our Pick:

Buffalo has not covered the spread in four of their last games, so take the Saints to do just that.

The Buffalo Bills defense let the Indy Colts score 41 points against them in Week 11 while QB Josh Allen looked like a regressed version of himself throwing two interceptions and completing just 21 of 35 pass attempts in the 15-41 blowout loss, a wakeup call for a Bills team now fighting with the Patriots to rule the AFC East, a win here a head start towards that goal.

Speaking of porous defenses, last week the New Orleans Saints let the Eagles score forty points on them for a big loss that drops them a game behind Tampa Bay in the NFC South, so Saints head coach Sean Payton must find a better way to game plan a win with backup quarterback Trevor Siemian under center now that starter Jameis Winston is out for the year.

These two cross-conference rivals have faced each other 11 prior times, with the New Orleans Saints winning 7 of those games and the Buffalo Bills winning 4 of the games.

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints Predictions

Can Bills QB Josh Allen Rebound After Buffalo’s Week 11 Thrashing?

What a difference a week makes in the NFL, especially when it comes to quarterbacking, with Bills hurler Josh Allen thriving in Week 10 with a rating of 125.6 in a blowout win over the Jets and then plummeting in Week 11 in a blowout loss to the Colts with a rating of just 72.2.

Now the Bills need to stack wins and a great way to start would be against this Saints team that is missing its starting quarterback, but that means that Allen must protect the ball better after having thrown five interceptions in the last three games.

During that same three-game stretch, Allen was sacked seven times, so that could also be playing a part in his temporary decline, so watch for better protection and a quicker, wiser release against a New Orleans pass defense ranked 22nd in the league.

Can the Saints Defense Correct Whatever Ailed Them in Week 11?

The Saints got blown out by the Eagles last week, so they need to patch some things up on defense, a top-10 squad that has been banged up all season, right now with two defensive ends – Marcus Davenport (shoulder) and Tanoh Kpassagnon (ankle) – listed as questionable.

The Saints are far better against the run (ranked 3rd) than against the pass (ranked 22nd) so they should expect Buffalo to come at them on the ground, a rushing attack that linebackers like Kwon Alexander and Kaden Elliss must anticipate and do their best to neutralize.

The New Orleans defense averages 2.3 sacks per game, the fifteenth most in the league, so guys like DEs Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport need to step up on Thanksgiving and go quarterback hunting for Josh Allen all game.

Bills Key Player: (WR) Stefon Diggs

In his two seasons with the Buffalo Bills, receiver Stefon Diggs has quickly become quarterback Josh Allen’s favorite target, and the 7-year NFL veteran has stepped up and become a consistent route runner, a reliable pass catcher, and a tough playmaker to tackle.

Diggs has been targeted 92 times this season and has caught 60 of those passes for 773 yards and 6 touchdowns, and now he has the chance to go against a Saints defense that is ranked 22nd against the pass this season.

Keep an eye on Diggs at the start of the game as he tests the Saints’ secondary for weaknesses, then expect him to catch at least one deep ball, the man already with a 61-yard reception this season.

Saints Key Player: (RB) Alvin Kamara

The main issue the Saints are having is consistency under center, right now with backup Trevor Siemian taking the snaps and Taysom Hill filling in now and again as a quarterback but also as a receiver and wildcat rusher out of the backfield.

That means New Orleans could use plenty of help from its rushing attack, so that means dual-threat back Alvin Kamara needs to have a big game on Thursday, the playmaker who has averaged six yards per touch over his NFL career, though this season it has dropped to 4.7.

In 2021, Kamara has run the ball 146 times for 530 yards and 3 touchdowns while catching 32 balls for 310 yards and 4 more scores, but right now he is listed as questionable due to a knee-MCL so he could be a game-time decision worth checking back for.

How to Watch Bills vs Saints