The Baltimore Ravens secured their first win of the season last week against the Dallas Cowboys
Josh Allen continues to climb up the oddsboard for the MVP award
The Buffalo Bills' front seven ranks near dead last in Run Defense PFF Grade
Even at 1-2, the Baltimore Ravens are still one of the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl heading into week four. They now have the opportunity to make a statement to the rest of the league against another championship contender in a primetime matchup against the surging Buffalo Bills. Lamar Jackson will need to continue to be efficient as he is locked into a quarterback duel against current MVP contender Josh Allen.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Buffalo Bills | +2.5 (-110) | +116 | Over 46.5 (-110) |
Baltimore Ravens | -2.5 (-110) | -136 | Under 46.5 (-110) |
With both offenses firing on all cylinders, expect a thrilling primetime contest between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens as there should be an uptick in scoring opportunities. Especially when both units have key advantages over each other's defenses, giving themselves a higher chance of moving the ball down the field and into scoring territory at a consistent rate for potential points up on the board.
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With the Ravens secondary uncharacteristically underperforming, Josh Allen and the high-powered Bills pass attack will be on full display as he picks apart their gaps in coverage. On the other side of the field, Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson will find themselves with plenty of open field to work with when they get to the second level of the Bills' defense due to Buffalo’s tendency of anchoring their linebackers in coverage. Expect plenty of offensive production to be generated by both units in what may be a preview of the AFC Championship.
Normally one of the more formidable coverage units in the league, the Ravens' secondary has yet to find their footing as they currently rank below league average in Def Pass EPA. With their pass rush poised to struggle against a Bills offensive line who ranks first overall in Pass Protection Win Rate, Josh Allen will find himself with a clean pocket to help pick apart the Ravens' gaps in coverage. With Baltimore’s front seven still excelling at stopping the run, expect the Bills offense to rely heavier on Josh Allen’s arm to help move the ball down the field.
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If you have already read our Best Lamar Jackson Prop Bets article, then you would know the under on Lamar’s longest completion prop is one of my favorite plays for this matchup as their offensive coordinators scheme revolves around short throws to help get their playmakers out in the open field. The Bills' defensive scheme is also built around limiting opposing explosiveness as they anchor their linebackers in coverage. Factor in the Ravens ground game getting the benefit of higher quality rushing lanes and a decrease in pass attempts will also help limit the possibility of Lamar burning this under.
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While it’s normally ill-advised to target the favorite in the anytime touchdown market, it’s tough to ignore Derrick Henry’s potential red zone usage as he is the Ravens' best course for success when in scoring territory. With Buffalo’s linebacking unit in coverage, the Bills defense will struggle to contain the bull back in the trenches with fewer bodies making contact to slow him down. Leaning on Henry’s legs also negates the variance that comes with throwing into heavy coverage, limiting the possibility of an empty trip while in scoring position.
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When: Sunday, September 29 at 8:20 PM ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Where to Watch: NBC
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LB Terrel Bernard - Out
CB Taron Johnson - Out
LB Roquan Smith - Questionable
OT Patrick Mekari - Questionable
C Tyler Linderbaum - Questionable
OG Andrew Vorhees - Questionable
Best Lamar Jackson Week 4 Prop Bets
Best Sunday Night Football Week 4 Picks
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