Bills vs. Dolphins Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Tagovailoa Seeking Revenge

• The Dolphins allow 1.43 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs, marking the second-worst rate in the NFL. 

• The Dolphins have allowed just two passing touchdowns over the past four games. 

• Before Week 8, when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned, running back De’Von Achane hadn’t scored since Week 2. 

The Buffalo Bills are hosting the Miami Dolphins in Week 9 of the NFL season. The Bills are 6-2 this season and have scored 31 or more points in the last two games. The Dolphins are 2-5 with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup for the second game since suffering a concussion against Buffalo in Week 2. Below are the odds for this game, my pick, predictions, and best player props.

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds 

Look below for the moneyline, point spread, and total odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. By using our exclusive FanDuel sign-up link, you can receive $150 in bonus bets after placing a winning $5 wager. 

Bills vs. Dolphins: My Pick

• My Pick: Bills Spread at -6.5 (-105) via FanDuel

The Dolphins surrendered two passing touchdowns in a losing effort against the Arizona Cardinals last week. This came after they held three quarterbacks in a row to zero. 

To be fair, though, those games were against Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, and Anthony Richardson. Sure, they’re NFL quarterbacks, but they’ve thrown for just 11 touchdowns across 17 combined games. 

The Bills offense has been rolling lately, and I think that continues here, especially on the ground. 

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Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions 

As mentioned, the Dolphins are a bit of a mixed bag against quarterbacks. Against an above-average one in Kyler Murray, they allowed 307 passing yards and two touchdowns. 

However, where I think the Bills win this game is actually with the rushing attack.

On the road in Week 8, we saw running back James Cook breakout with over 100 yards and two rushing touchdowns. 

Now, he’ll be on the second-worst defense in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs, allowing 1.43 per game. There hasn’t been a single game without a rushing score from a running back, and I think a combination of Cook and Ray Davis can do more than that. 

In his return, Tagovailoa threw for 234 yards, one touchdown, and had three fumbles. 

I expect them to lean heavily on running back De'Von Achane here, but the Bills have been better against opposing running backs lately, partially due to their offensive performance. 

They allowed just 16 rushing yards on 12 carries to the Seahawks last week, and in Week 7, they allowed 19 carries for 76 yards. 

I think quarterback Josh Allen will have a great game here, especially with wide receiver Amari Cooper, who is now in his third game with the team, and the running game complementing the offense well. 

The Bills win by at least a touchdown at home against a Dolphins team trying to get back on track.

Bills vs. Dolphins Best Player Props

Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-137 at Caesars Sportsbook)

When you look at the stats of quarterbacks against the Dolphins, there’s not a lot of statistical evidence to back this prop up other than Week 8, with Murray throwing two touchdowns. 

Before that, no quarterback had multiple touchdown passes against the Dolphins. 

However, context matters. 

The games before Week 8 included the following opponents:

• Jacksonville Jaguars: Quarterback Trevor Lawrence had just two passing touchdowns through the first three weeks of the season. 

• Bills: This was the game when Tagovailoa got hurt, and the Bills intercepted him three times. The Bills had a massive lead, so it wasn’t necessary to throw. 

• Seahawks: This game was against the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins, and again, the Seahawks had a massive lead. 

• Titans, Patriots, and Colts: I mentioned this already, but these were pedestrian signal-callers, in all fairness. 

Here, the Bills are just about touchdown favorites, but Allen has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three straight games and now has Cooper to work with, be it in the passing game directly or having him take away double teams from other receivers. 

I expect a great performance from Allen at home.

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James Cook Any Time TD (-128 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Only one team allows more rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs than the Dolphins. They’ve also surrendered at least one in every game this season.

Cook has scored in three straight games, including four touchdowns in that span. 

Against the Dolphins earlier this year, Cook had 11 carries for 78 yards, two rushing touchdowns, and caught one pass for 17 yards and one touchdown. 

Cook, barring injury, will see plenty of volume here against a weak Dolphins run defense.

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De'Von Achane Any Time TD (+102 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Getting the “+” odds value, Achane scoring is a great bet. 

It’s been tough sleddin’ for Achane while Tagovailoa has been out. During his absence, Achane didn’t score at all.

In Week 8, he had 10 carries for 97 yards and caught six passes on eight targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. 

The Bills have been pretty good about keeping opposing running backs out of the end zone, but they did allow a receiving score to Achane in Week 2.

Achane is a unique back-in. He could get 25 touches or more, with a good chunk of them coming in the passing game. 

He caught seven passes against the Bills in that game.

The Dolphins are sizable underdogs here, but that leaves the door open for even more opportunities for Achane in the passing game. 

I expect Achane to get a lot of usage here, which will result in a touchdown, even if it’s in garbage time.

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Bills vs. Dolphins: How to Watch

• When: Sunday, Nov. 3 at 1 PM ET

• Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

• Where to Watch: CBS

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Bills vs. Dolphins Injuries

• Dolphins defensive tackle Zach Sieler is questionable. 

• Dolphins cornerback Kader Kohou is questionable. 

• Dolphins cornerback Storm Duck is questionable. 

• Dolphins safety Jevon Holland is questionable with a knee injury.

• Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel is questionable. 

• Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard is questionable.