Bills vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions & Player Props: The Game of the Year?

• The Buffalo Bills have allowed three touchdowns to running backs over the last two games. 

• Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie has allowed two touchdowns over the past two weeks and has a potential matchup with Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper. 

• The Kansas City Chiefs have only allowed one running back to reach 58 rushing yards this season. 

The 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs are on the road this week to take on the 8-2 Buffalo Bills in what I’d consider the “Game of the Year” to this point. This game has massive AFC Playoff picture implications, potentially including home-field advantage. 

Below are the odds for this game, my best bet, predictions, and best player props. 

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds 

Look below for the moneyline, point spread, and total odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users can receive $150 in bonus bets after placing a winning $5 wager. 

Bills vs. Chiefs: My Pick

• My Pick: Chiefs Spread at +2.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Getting the Chiefs at +2.5 is far too good to pass up. 

Yes, they barely escaped the Denver Broncos after blocking a field goal as time expired, but the Bills defense has been a bit questionable against running backs. 

They’ve allowed three touchdowns to the position over the last two games, including two receiving touchdowns.

The Chiefs are coming off a game in which running backs combined for over 100 yards receiving. 

This will be a close game, but I’ll take the points. 

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Bills vs. Chiefs Predictions 

There’s a narrative surrounding the Chiefs—and rightfully so to an extent—that these wins are coming in ways that cannot be sustainable. Again, I understand somewhat.

After all, they blocked a field goal to beat the Broncos. This wasn’t a 56-yard prayer shot—it was a 30-yard field goal that would’ve delivered the Chiefs their first loss of the season.

But they blocked it and got the win. 

There have been many other close calls, but I tend to look at these wins similar to the New England Patriots in the 2000s. They always find a way to win, and I think that we could see that again here. 

The Bills are easily their toughest matchup yet. Not to mention, it’s on the road. 

Whoever wins this game could likely earn home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. 

Heading into this game, the Bills will likely have wide receiver Amari Cooper back (he was limited in practice), while rookie Keon Coleman will be out with a wrist injury. 

As for the Chiefs, no players were held out of practice on Wednesday.

The Chiefs will take on a Bills defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in the last two games and in each of the last three games. 

As mentioned, this is going to be a close game. 

Where I think the Chiefs edge this one out is on the ground. 

The Bills have allowed 114 yards or more in each of the last two games. They’ve allowed three touchdowns in that same span, including two through the air. 

The Chiefs opened the practice window for running back Isiah Pacheco, but it’s unclear if he’ll return here. 

Even if he doesn’t, the Chiefs will have running back Kareem Hunt, who has played six games this season, out there again. 

He’s scored in four of six games this season. Last week, Hunt caught seven passes on 10 targets for 65 yards. 

Now, how do the Chiefs defend against running backs? They hold them to 3.17 yards per carry and have only allowed three rushing scores this season.

Look for the Chiefs running game to lead them to cover or win this game outright on the road. 

Bills vs. Chiefs Best Player Props

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Kareem Hunt Any Time TD (-130 at Caesars Sportsbook)

The most important aspect of this prop is Pacheco's status. Although he was limited in practice, he could play this week.

If he doesn’t, Hunt will get ample volume, and it’s hard to see a scenario in which he doesn’t score.

As mentioned, the Bills have allowed three touchdowns to running backs over the last two games and 114-plus yards in each of those. 

In six games this season, Hunt has 21 carries or more in four of six games. 

He’s coming off a game with just 14 carries, but he made up for it with seven catches. 

No, he didn’t score, but again, he’s scored in four of six games this season. One of those games included his first game off the couch. 

The key to the Chiefs winning this game is the running game. If Pacheco is out, Hunt will see 20-plus touches, giving him a great chance to score. 

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Amari Cooper Any Time TD (+200 at Caesars Sportsbook)

As we approach Week 11, the Bills have ruled out Coleman, and Cooper is limited in practice to start the week. 

If he suits up, he’ll face a Chiefs defense that’s allowed multiple touchdowns to wide receivers in two of the last three games. They’ve also allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each of the last three games. 

Cooper has only appeared in two games for the Bills, and he caught a touchdown in his first game. 

Lining up outside, Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie will oppose him. He’s allowed 25 catches on 41 targets for 254 yards and two touchdowns this season. Both of those touchdowns have come over the past two games.

At +200, this is worth a half-unit bet. 

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James Cook Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (-117 at Caesars Sportsbook)

The Chiefs are allowing just 16.56 carries and 52.56 rushing yards per game. 

Looking at this line of 57.5, only one running back has had 58 rushing yards or more this season, and that was San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason, who had exactly 58 yards. 

Cook has 128 carries for 576 yards and eight touchdowns this season. He’s averaging 64 yards per game. He’s had 57 yards or less in four of nine games this season, but this Chiefs run defense has been stout all season long. 

The Bills have another running back, Ray Davis, and quarterback Josh Allen, who will get some carries. 

Cook is going under here. 

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Bills vs. Chiefs: How to Watch

• When: Sunday, Nov. 17  at 4:25 PM ET

• Where: Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, NY

• Where to Watch: CBS

Bills vs. Chiefs Best Promos and Sportsbooks

If you’re looking for the best odds for the Bills vs. Chiefs matchup or any other Week 11 NFL game, check out our top recommended NFL betting sites. FanDuel is my go-to for betting odds, while Caesars always delivers top-tier prop bets. 

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Bills vs. Chiefs Injuries

• Bills offensive tackle Spencer Brown is questionable with an ankle injury. 

• Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman is out with a wrist injury. 

• Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a wrist injury. 

• Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid is questionable with a knee injury. 

• Bills linebacker Matt Milano is questionable with a bicep injury. 

• Chiefs defensive end Charles Omenihu is questionable with a knee injury. 

• Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is questionable with an ankle injury. 

• Chiefs wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is questionable with a hamstring injury.

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