Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow was sacked four times during last week’s win
The AFC’s Second-Seeded Buffalo Bills have won eight games in a row
Watch Bengals vs Bills live on Sunday, January 22, 2023, at 3:00 PM ET on CBS
POINT SPREAD: Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 (-109) at Unibet
POINTS TOTAL: Over 48 (-113) at BetRivers
SPECIAL: 1st TD Scorer – Stefon Diggs (+700) at FanDuel
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Game 3 of the NFL Playoff Divisional Round is a much anticipated AFC battle between the AFC’s third-seeded Cincinnati Bengals and the second-seeded Buffalo Bills, these Bengals were victorious in Wild Card week over the Ravens after DE Sam Hubbard ran a recovered fumble back for a TD while the Bills QB Josh Allen threw 2 INTs, dropped 3 fumbles, and was sacked 7 times in their win.
According to the sportsbooks, the Cincy Bengals have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as underdogs, and in this game for this Point Spread bet they get an extra +4.5 points from Unibet, though given that the Bills have won each of their last eight games, this will be no walk in the park for either of these teams, both with young QBs who like to throw the ball to playmakers deep.
The difference in this game could come down to how well the Bengals’ 16th-ranked defense can stop the Bills’ 2nd-best offense while balancing a top-7 passing attack with their top-7 rushing attack that includes such playmakers as WRs Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and TE Dawson Knox while getting backfield help from RBs Devon Singletary and his rookie backup James Cook.
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There is a reason that BetRivers has this points total bet at (48) because these two AFC divisional champs know how to find the end zone and often, with the Bengals offense averaging 26.1 points per game and the Bills offense posting points 28.4 points per week, that combined total of 43.5 points well over what this bet allows, so we like the over for this one.
Of course, we always check the defensive scoring tendencies as well, and in this case Cincinnati’s squad allows opponents to score 20.1 points per week and Buffalo’s defense allows teams to average 17.9 points per game, that combined total of 38 points well under what the oddsmakers predict, this winter game in Buffalo a potential defensive battle, especially if the cold weather demands it.
Two fun matchups to watch for in this one – Bills deep threat Stefon Diggs working against the Bengals’ best CB Eli Apple, a battle that could help determine the outcome of the game; also watch for Cincinnati’s best WR Ja’Marr Chase as he runs deep routes against Buffalo’s speedy CB Tre’Davious White, with both defenses relying on safety double-teams whenever possible.
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The folks at FanDuel have a fun Special Wager for this Divisional Round matchup, with bettors expected to guess which player might score the first touchdown of the game, that sportsbook offering odds on just about every playmaker from both teams, the favorite among all of the Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs (+700), who so far this season has posted 11 touchdowns.
The oddsmakers tell us that the Bills have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven postseason games, so that could also be done by QB Josh Allen (+950), the 6’ 5” 237 big-armed scrambler who has 7 rushing TDs in 2022 (with 38 total rushing TDs since 2018), a dual-threat quarterback who can beat you deep but then take advantage of the open field with his legs.
The Cincinnati Bengals have their own share of TD scorers, including RB Joe Mixon, a 6’ 1”
220-pound back who is tough to tackle, this season with 7 rushing TDs and 2 receiving TDs; also pay attention to Cincy WR Ja’Marr Chase who is fast down the field and excellent at snagging contested catches, plus his ability to evade tackles has helped net him post 9 TDs in 2022.
What: Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills
Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY
When: Sunday, January 22, 2023, at 3:00 PM ET
How: CBS
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