Best Saquon Barkley Prop Bets: Fade the Eagles Ground Game Against a Stout Packers Front Seven

• Green Bay’s loss to Chicago in week 18 bumped them down to the seventh seed

• Saquon Barkley is expected to win the Offensive Player of the Year award

• The Packers' front seven ranks top-10 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

Since joining the Philadelphia Eagles, Saquon Barkley has wasted no time in his efforts of generating rush production while building a strong case for the Offensive Player of the Year award. Barkley played a key role in the Eagles' success this season as he led their offense to top-10 marks in Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Even with his offensive line grading poorly in Adjusted Line Yards, Barkley was still able to help the Eagles sustain drives down the field by churning out over five yards per carry.

Unfortunately for Barkley, negative regression may loom large as he faces off against the Green Bay Packers and their stout front seven in the first round of the playoffs. Even with Jalen Hurts expected to make his return from injury to help stretch out the second level of their defense, getting past the trenches will be a struggle as the Packers excel at limiting opposing rush production. To counter against their front seven, expect an uptick in receptions in the form of bubble screens and dump-offs.

As for where to wager on Saquon Barkley’s player props, BetMGM Sportsbook has a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook, you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Under 101.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

As previously mentioned, the Green Bay Packers front seven have excelled at stopping the run this season as they enter the playoffs ranked top-10 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. A majority of their success stems from their defensive line as the Packers front four ranks ninth overall in Def Adjusted Line Yards while they anchor their linebackers in coverage at one of the heaviest rates in the league.

With Philadelphia’s offensive line grading out poorly in Run Block, the Eagles' ground game is poised to regress as the Packers' front four controls the line. When slowed down in the trenches, getting past the Packers' linebackers will be a struggle when they crash down to the clogged rushing lane at the point of contact. Should your book offer alternate totals, then escalator bet Barkley’s rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate unders.

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Under 20.5 Rush Attempts (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While the Packers' front seven have excelled at stopping the run, their secondary has struggled mightily in coverage as they enter the contest ranked near dead last in Def Pass Success Rate. That indicates the Packers struggle to stop opposing pass attacks from cutting the distance to gain in half on early downs, as well as converting on third down. With Saquon expected to regress, expect the Eagles to call a heavier dose of the pass which eats away at Barkley’s total number of rush attempts.

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Over 1.5 Receptions (-168) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Even though Barkley is poised to struggle with generating rush production, he will still play a key role in their offense by being used as a pass catcher. Especially if the Eagles' offensive line continues to struggle with holding their ground in Pass Protection as they face off against a Packers defense who ranks 13th overall in Def Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate. To counter their interior pressure, expect Barkley to be deployed in bubble screens and dump offs in an attempt to beat their linebackers to the outside.

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First Touchdown Scorer (+460) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With Philadelphia’s defense ranking top-10 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate, value shades towards the Eagles in the first touchdown scorer market as the Packers will struggle to get into scoring position. Even when expected to regress, Barkley’s heavy volume in the red zone still puts him in a great position to score. This prop also serves as a reminder to always line shop when making a wager as Barkley’s odds to score the first touchdown can be found as high as +460 at FanDuel Sportsbook and as low as +360 at Caesars Sportsbook.

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Saquon Barkley 2024 Stats

• Rushing Yards: 2,005

• Rushing Touchdowns: 13

• Average Yards per Carry: 5.8

• Total Fumbles: 2

• Receiving Yards: 278

• Receiving Touchdowns: 2