Best Sam Darnold Prop Bets: Vikings Hopes to Win the Division Hinge on Darnold’s Arm

• Sam Darnold ranks top-6 in Quarterback EPA per play and PFF Grade

• The Minnesota Vikings are one win away from winning the NFC North division title

• The Detroit Lions defense ranks 16th in Def Pass Success Rate and 26th in Adjusted Sack Rate

For a year that was labeled as a short-term rebuild, the Minnesota Vikings have pushed aside regression and are now just one win away from winning the NFC North division title. Not only are they in a position to win the division title, but they can also secure the top overall seed in the NFC standings as well. With the top seed, the Vikings would receive a bye in the first round of the playoffs and have the ability to host the next two games which drastically increases their chances of making the Super Bowl.

Sam Darnold revitalizing his career in Minnesota has played a major role in their success this season as the Vikings quarterback currently ranks top-6 in Quarterback EPA per play and PFF Grade. With Darnold leading the charge, the Vikings' pass attack heads into week 18 ranked top-10 in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. With the Lions' secondary clearly missing their lockdown corner Carlton Davis, expect Darnold to string together another dominant performance and lead the Vikings to victory.

As for where to wager on Sam Darnold’s player props, BetMGM Sportsbook has an abundance of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook, you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With Sam Darnold playing at a very high level, as well as the Lions secondary dealing with injuries, abusing the pass will be the Vikings best path for success. Especially with Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson expected to receive single coverage opportunities while the Lions will be forced to shade their safeties toward Justin Jefferson. When in single coverage, Jordan Addison is capable of burning past anyone to create separation which also increases the quality of Darnold’s passing lanes.

The Vikings have also struggled with generating rush production as their ground game currently ranks 20th in Rush DVOA, 18th in Rush Success Rate, and 24th in Rush EPA. With the Lions' offense capable of putting up points in a flash, the Vikings will have to match their pace of points and can ill-afford to stall out a drive-by calling the run. In a winner-takes-all situation, expect the Vikings to call a heavy dose of the pass which increases the probability of Darnold clearing the over on his yardage prop.

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Under 0.5 Interception (+100) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only will Darnold have the opportunity to consistently throw into high quality passing lanes, but he may also find himself operating in a clean pocket as the Lions' defense ranks 26th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. With a lack of interior pressure, Darnold can sit back and pick apart the gaps in Detroit’s coverage as they open up. The Lions also blitz at one of the heavier rates in the league which leaves the middle of their defense exposed when their extra bodies are unable to push back the line.

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Alt Over 224.5 Passing Yards / Alt +3.5 (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Should you have missed out on the key number of +3 and want to back the Vikings, then building a correlated same game parlay may be your best way to do so. As previously mentioned, Sam Darnold will have a great opportunity to churn out pass production as he picks apart the Lions' injury-riddled secondary. When in single coverage, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson should have no issue with exploiting the gaps in coverage while Justin Jefferson deals with double teams.

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings defense possesses more than enough production to slow down the Lions high powered offense as they enter the contest ranked top-5 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. While it may not come at a consistent rate, just stalling out the Lions once drastically shifts momentum towards their way as their own offense should face minimal resistance in their efforts of getting into scoring position.

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Sam Darnold 2024 Stats

• Passing Yards: 4,153

• Passing Touchdowns: 35

• Interceptions: 12

• Completion Percentage: 68.1%

• Passing Yards per game: 259.6

• Rushing Yards: 202

• Rushing Touchdowns: 1