Best Sam Darnold Prop Bets: Expect a Lack of Explosiveness From the Vikings Offense

• The Minnesota Vikings are currently undefeated four weeks into the season

• Sam Darnold is climbing up the oddsboard for the MVP award

• The New York Jets defense ranks below average in Pass Rush Win Rate

After entering the year expected to be near the bottom of the overall standings, the Minnesota Vikings are one of two teams who are still undefeated and are climbing up the oddsboard to win the Super Bowl. A major reason for their success stems from their quarterback Sam Darnold who has seemingly revived his career in his new home, entering week five ranked well above league average in EPA per Play. With his newfound success, Darnold is also climbing up the oddsboard for the MVP award.

Against the New York Jets defense, Darnold may find himself in a position to continue to succeed as the Jets have shockingly underwhelmed in their efforts of collapsing the pocket. Injuries and contract holdouts have played a major role in their regression, entering the contest ranked well below league average in both Pass Rush Win Rate and Pass Rush PFF Grade. With a clean pocket, expect Darnold to pick apart the Jets through the air while limiting the number of turnover worthy throws.

As for where you can wager on Sam Darnold’s player props, Caesars Sportsbook has a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with Caesars sportsbook, you can get up to $1,000 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSN1000.

Under 0.5 Interception (-101) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Even though the Jets defense ranks above league average in Def EPA per Play, a majority of their success comes from stopping the run instead of disrupting the quarterback. Focusing on their front seven, the Jets rank near the top of the board in Run Defense Win Rate but well below league average in Pass Rush Win Rate and Pass Rush PFF Grade. Their scheme plays a role in their lack of Pass Rush as the Jets prefer to anchor their linebackers in coverage while just rushing their front four.

While heavier coverage normally shades value towards the over on an interception prop, Darnold has shown he can take care of the ball by averaging less than one interception per game this season. This prop also gets the benefit of the Vikings offense reverting to a more simplistic game plan as we have seen in overseas contests, meaning there may be an uptick in rush attempts to help limit the possibility of Darnold throwing a pick through the air.

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Longest Completion Under 36.5 Yards (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, the Vikings pass attack will have to rely on quick outs and safe throws to the flats as the Jets second level of their defense anchors across the middle. This lessens the quality of throws down the field, forcing Darnold to pick apart the gaps underneath the coverage for small gains at a time.

While this does allow the Vikings to move the ball down the field through the air, it lessens the chance of generating an explosive play as the Jets contain the runner at the point of contact. Barring a desperation hail mary at the end of the contest or busted coverage on a missed assignment, Darnold should hardly threaten to burn the under on this prop as the Jets defense smothers opposing pass attacks with their heavy coverage.

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Sam Darnold Anytime Touchdown (+525) at Caesars Sportsbook 

With the Jets secondary already posing as an issue for the Vikings pass attack when in the middle of the field, Darnold will find it even tougher to convert through the air when in the red zone as the Jets get the benefit of stretching out in coverage with less ground to cover. Calling the run to counteract the coverage will also result in minimal success as the Jets rank near the top of the board in Run Defense Win Rate.

This potentially forces the Vikings to rely on play action to help scramble the Jets coverage, increasing the likelihood of a running lane opening up for Darnold to exploit. This prop also serves as a reminder to line shop when wagering on player props. As of writing, Darnold to score a touchdown can be found as high as +525 at Caesars and as low as +350 on BetMGM. That is a difference of $175 in profit for a $100 bettor.

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Sam Darnold 2024 Stats

• Passing Yards: 932

• Passing Touchdowns: 11

• Interceptions: 3

• Completion Percentage: 68.9%

• Rushing Yards: 50

• Rushing Touchdowns: 0