Best Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets: Expect Bounce Back Performance Against Weak Falcons Pass Rush

• Patrick Mahomes was limited to just 151 passing yards against the Cincinnati Bengals last week

• The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks below league average in True Pass Set Grade

• The Atlanta Falcons front seven ranks 32nd overall in Pass Rush Win Rate

It has been anything but easy for the Kansas City Chiefs as they squeaked past the Baltimore Ravens in their season opener after Isaiah Likely stepped out of bounds on a last-second catch while needing a game-winning field goal to beat the Cincinnati Bengals in week two. Current NFL MVP betting favorite Patrick Mahomes was especially underwhelming last week against the Bengals as he finished the contest throwing for just 151 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

The Chiefs offensive line has played a major role in Mahomes struggles as they enter week three of the regular season ranked 19th overall in True Pass Set Grade. While Mahomes is a magician when having to throw on the run, it still brings an uptick in variance. Fortunately for Mahomes and the Chiefs' pass attack, the Atlanta Falcons' defensive line has continued to struggle with generating a pass rush as they rank dead last in Pass Rush Win Rate and second to last in PFF Grade.

As for where you can bet on Patrick Mahomes player props, FanDuel Sportsbook has a wide range of props for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile sportsbooks. If you have not signed up yet with FanDuel Sportsbook, you can claim $200 in bonus bets as well as three weeks of NFL Sunday Ticket after creating an account and making an initial wager of at least $5.

Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

After being held to just 151 passing yards against the Cincinnati Bengals, Patrick Mahomes has the opportunity to bounce back against one of the worst pass rushes in the league. With minimal improvements to their front seven in the offseason, the Atlanta Falcons' struggles with getting to the quarterback are on pace to mirror last year's lowly marks as they currently rank dead last in Pass Rush Win Rate and second to last in PFF Grade.

The Falcons' inability to collapse the pocket at a consistent rate bodes well for the Chiefs' pass attack as their offensive line has underwhelmed this season. In two games played, the Chiefs offensive line ranks below the league average in True Pass Set Grade. In a cleaner pocket, Mahomes will find himself with higher-quality passing opportunities to help sustain drives down the field. With extended drives, Mahomes will also receive more attempts to help clear the over on this prop.

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Over 23.5 Pass Completions (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, more pass attempts also give Mahomes more opportunities to rack up completions. Especially when he will be given higher-quality passing lanes as a cleaner pocket gives his pass catchers more time in the open field to create separation from the Falcons' secondary. His star tight end Travis Kelce excels at plugging gaps in opposing coverage, giving Mahomes a reliable target for him to throw to.

Better yet for Mahomes and the Chiefs pass attack, first-round pick Xavier Worthy has already shown he can immediately contribute to their offense as he uses his blistering fast speed to stretch opposing secondaries thin. This takes coverage away from Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice as opposing safeties are forced to shade towards Worthy to help keep him in front of them in order to avoid getting beat down the field.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+550) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

While Mahomes may be given higher-quality passing opportunities in the middle of the field, finding success through the air in the red zone may still be tough to come by as it’s easier for the Falcons to stretch out in coverage with less space to cover. 

The Chiefs' offense will also be without starting running back Isiah Pacheco, potentially forcing head coach Andy Reid to rely more on Mahomes and their pass attack than rookie running back Carson Steele when in scoring position. With their pass catchers having to deal with heavier coverage while in a shortened field, Mahomes may try to take it in himself should a running lane open in scrambled coverage. Be sure to line shop as the odds on a touchdown scorer prop can wildly vary between each sportsbook.

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Patrick Mahomes 2024 Stats

• Passing Yards: 442

• Passing Touchdowns: 3

• Interceptions: 3

• Completion Percentage: 71.7%

• Rushing Yards: 32

• Rushing Touchdowns: 0

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