Best Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Prop Bets: Fade Mahomes Arm Against the Eagles Stout Coverage

• Patrick Mahomes has won the Super Bowl MVP in all three of their championships

• The Kansas City Chiefs have the opportunity to be the first team to win three straight Super Bowls

• The Philadelphia Eagles secondary ranks top-3 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After thwarting Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Conference Championship, the Kansas City Chiefs have stamped their ticket to their third straight Super Bowl appearance. Unfortunately for Patrick Mahomes, the three-time Super Bowl MVP will find it tough to generate pass production against the Philadelphia Eagles secondary as their defense ranks top-3 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

As for where to wager on Patrick Mahomes player props, BetMGM Sportsbook has an abundance of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile apps. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook, you can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been a roller coaster of a year for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense as their pass attack has seemingly taken a step back in production when compared to their other Super Bowl runs. Heading into the big game on Sunday, the Chiefs offense ranks 11th overall in Pass DVOA, 10th in Pass EPA, and 10th in Pass Success Rate. Their inconsistencies on offense have resulted in career lows for Patrick Mahomes in regard to passing yards and passing touchdowns since the 2018 regular season.

Against Philadelphia, generating pass production will be a struggle as the Eagles secondary thrives in coverage. As of writing, the Eagles' back end ranks an astonishing top-3 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. A major reason for their success stems from their defensive scheme as the Eagles anchor their linebackers across the middle at one of the highest rates in the league, giving them extra bodies in coverage to help bracket Travis Kelce off the line and lessen the quality of Mahomes passing lanes.

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Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

To make matters worse for Mahomes in his efforts of generating pass production, he may find himself with less time in the pocket to operate as he will be under relentless pressure from the Eagles' front four. The Chiefs offensive line have struggled to hold their ground this season as they enter the contest ranked 15th overall in Adjusted Sack Rate and 14th in Adjusted Line Yards. Expect Mahomes to rely heavier on quick throws to counter the Eagles' interior pressure which hurts his chances of generating an explosive play.

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Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-140) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only will Mahomes have to rely on quicker throws to his receivers, but he may also have to utilize his legs at a heavier rate to help scramble away from the Eagles' pressure. Mahomes has shown he is more than willing to use his legs to sustain drives down the field as he is averaging nine carries per game in the playoffs. With Philadelphia's second level of their defense anchored in coverage to help shadow Kelce across the middle, Mahomes may be presented with an uptick in rushing lanes for him to exploit.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+400) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even with Philadelphia’s secondary grading out well in coverage, calling the pass may still be the Chiefs' best path for success in the red zone as the Eagles front line ranks second overall in Def Rush DVOA and EPA. Against the Bills, Mahomes thrived in scrambling situations as he finished the contest with two rushing touchdowns. When his pass catchers are unable to break away from the Eagles coverage in the shortened field, expect Mahomes to remain aggressive and try to punch it in himself. 

This prop also serves as a reminder to always line shop before placing a bet as Mahomes odds to score a touchdown can be found as high as +400 at BetMGM and as low as +330 at Caesars Sportsbook. That is a difference of $70 in profit for a $100 bettor.

Follow our link for more Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl player props, and get ready for this epic matchup.

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Patrick Mahomes Postseason Stats

• Passing Yards: 422

• Passing Touchdowns: 2

• Total Interceptions: 0

• Completion Percentage: 66.7%

• Rushing Yards: 57

• Rushing Touchdowns: 2

• Total Carries: 18