Nico Collins leads the NFL with 489 receiving yards after four games.
Collins is gaining 16.3 yards per reception this season.
The Bills have allowed five receiving touchdowns during their first four games.
Through the first month of the NFL season, there should be no question that Nico Collins has been the league’s best wide receiver. He’s currently the NFL’s leading receiver with a cushion of more than 100 yards. That sets up a fascinating matchup in Week 5 as Collins and the Houston Texans take on the Buffalo Bills. While Collins has been unstoppable, the Bills have been among the best in the league at defending the pass. That makes it difficult to predict how Collins will fare in prop bets this week.
For this week’s prop bets involving Collins, the odds are from bet365 Sportsbook. Currently, bet365 is giving new customers a choice of two different welcome offers. One is a safety net bet of up to $1,500 on your first wager. The other will give you $200 worth of bonus bets if you just sign up via our exclusive bet365 link and make a $5 wager.
Since Collins is off to such a great start, he’s now become a serious contender to win Offensive Player of the Year. Meanwhile, from a team perspective, the Texans have started the year 3-1. With an important showdown against the Bills this week, this is a good time to look at how both teams stack up among the other contenders to win the AFC.
Perhaps the only flaw for Collins this season is that he’s caught just two touchdown passes in four games. For a player who has already amassed 489 receiving yards in four games, that’s a little surprising. Of course, despite not racking up as many yards, Stefon Diggs is still a great playmaker and obvious target for C.J. Stroud, allowing him to match Collins with two receiving touchdowns.
Nevertheless, there is every reason to take the plus odds on Collins scoring a touchdown in Week 5. Admittedly, the Bills have allowed just five passing touchdowns in four games, so they’ve been a little stingy in this area. However, the Bills lack a truly elite cornerback who can take Collins out of the game. They also know what Diggs can do close to the end zone, so he will be watched carefully as well. That should leave the door open for Collins to find the end zone in Week 5.
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The over/under for Collins at bet365 is 78.5 receiving yards. But he’s been so good this year that it’s worth taking a chance on a higher milestone given the odds available. Collins has already gone over 100 yards in three games, including 151 receiving yards in last week’s win over Jacksonville and 135 receiving yards in a win over the Bears. Even when the Texans were blown out by the Vikings 34-7, Collins still racked up 86 yards on just four catches.
There is no reason to think that Collins can’t reach 100 receiving yards yet again. As mentioned, the Bills don’t have an elite cornerback who can keep Collins under wraps all game. While Buffalo has defended opposing wide receivers effectively in most of their games this season, they haven’t faced a passing attack anywhere near the level that the Texans possess with Stroud throwing to both Collins and Diggs. That should give Collins more than enough opportunities to pick up yards and get over 100 once again.
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This feels like a safe bet because Collins is more than capable of running after the catch and gaining more than 25 yards on a reception. Plus, Stroud isn’t afraid to target him on deep routes more than 25 yards down the field. In fact, Collins has a reception of at least 26 yards in all four games this season. Even further, Collins is one of four receivers who is currently tied for the league lead with seven catches of 20 yards or more. There is no question that he’s a big-play receiver.
The reason why this number seems so low is because the Buffalo defense has only allowed one catch over 25 yards this season, and that came last week to a tight end. However, the Ravens had no reason to push the ball down the field in a blowout win last week while the Bills have also faced a struggling Trevor Lawrence and Miami backup Skylar Thompson in recent weeks. Stroud will have no problem challenging the Buffalo secondary, which should allow Collins to have another long reception this week.
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Through four games, here are Collins’ stats in 2024:
Receptions: 30
Receiving Yards: 489
Touchdowns: 2
Yards Per Catch: 16.3
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