NFL Prop Bets Week 4: Best NFL Player Props

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

My Pick – Tua Tagovailoa Prop To Account for Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-160 at DraftKings)

The Miami Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa are starting the 2023 NFL Season on another tear similar to last season. Through three games this season, Tagovailoa leads the league in quarterback rating 121. He is also behind only Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins in passing yards per game (341.3) and passing touchdowns (8).

Late last season in the 32-29 road loss to the Buffalo Bill, Tagovailoa threw for two touchdowns with an offensive line that was falling apart. This season, the Dolphins have the most explosive offense in the league thanks to a set of elite, fast receivers, a reliable offensive line and Tagovailoa being one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league.

The Bills are ranked in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (142.3), but they faced Zach Wilson (Jets), Jimmy Garoppolo(Raiders) and Sam Howell (Commanders). This game on Sunday will be a big test for the Bills' defense.

Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears

My Pick – D.J. Moore Prop To Account for Under 3.5 receptions (-120 at DraftKings)

This Sunday's game between the winless Denver Broncos (0-3) at the winless Chicago Bears (0-3) has a chance to easily be the worst game of the 2023 NFL Season. This is not the only game this Sunday to feature a matchup between winless teams, but it is certainly the most polarizing.

The Broncos' defense gave up 726 total yards and 70 total points to the Dolphins' offense last week. The Broncos were embarrassed 70-20 and yet they are the favorite going into Sunday's matchup against the Bears.

The Bears have been horrible on offense and it starts with the lack of development in the passing game from quarterback Justin Fields. Wide receiver D.J. Moore was brought in the big trade from the Carolina Panthers to give Fields a reliable number-one receiver. Fields has been unable to consistently connect with Moore as he has caught 11 receptions for 170 yards and a touchdown in three games.

After being publicly shamed by the Dolphins, the Broncos' defense is looking to redeem themselves by dominating the Bears' offense and shutting down the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

My Pick – Travon Walker Prop To Account for Over 0.25 sacks (+165 at DraftKings)

The first three games of the 2023 NFL Season have given fans a lot of surprises. One big surprise is the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) coming off a tough defensive battle with the Kansas City Chiefs in week two only to be embarrassed at home by the Houston Texas 37-17. The Jaguars are looking for solidity from their leaders on both sides of the ball.

One player that the Jaguars are looking to get more out of is second-year outside linebacker and former first-overall pick Travon Walker. Through three games this season, Walker has accounted for one sack, four tackles for loss, and only one quarterback hit. Jacksonville is looking for more production out of him.

The Jaguars are taking on the Atlanta Falcons (2-1), who have potential on offense. That potential, however, can easily be shut down over how inefficient the offensive line can be. Atlanta has given up 12 sacks this season, tied for fourth most in the league. The Jaguars' defense looks to be more explosive and play with more urgency. Walker has to be the frontlines of expected to do more.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants

My Pick – Kenneth Walker III Prop To Account for Over 62.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

The Seattle Seahawks (2-1) have been hit hard by injuries. Last week in the 37-27 home win over the Carolina Panthers, the Seahawks had three starting offensive linemen out, including their most reliable guard Damien Lewis. That didn't stop Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III from having a huge impactful game. Walker ran for 97 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries.

The Seahawks have a great chance to show they are a serious NFC Championship contender this Monday Night Football in primetime against the dreadful New York Giants (1-2). The Giants have been one of the most disappointing teams through three games this season. 

The Giants are ranked 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (138). Though three games, the Giants have allowed Tony Pollard (Cowboys), James Conner (Cardinals), and Christian McCaffrey (49ers) to rush for over 70 yards. It is now Walker's turn to do some damage to the Giants' defense.