Best NFL Player Prop Bets Week 4

Sometimes picking the winner of a game via the money line or spread can be difficult. As we saw on Thursday Night Football to kick off the Week 4 slate, the 3-0 Miami Dolphins lost by double-digit points against the Cincinnati Bengals. The latter only got their first win a week ago against the New York Jets.

With this level of uncertainty, a great alternative is player props, where you’re gauging a single player’s success.

Here, we have four player props we think you should consider heading into Week 4.

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 6.5 Receptions (-110) at DraftKings

Heading across the swamp, the Saints and Vikings will battle in London, starting at 9:30 am ET.

That game features one of the best receivers—the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson.

However, Jefferson has been relatively silent since his Week 1 explosion against the Green Bay Packers.

In Week 2, he caught just six of 12 targets for 48 yards; Week 3 was even worse, catching three of six for 14 yards.

Thought of as a contender to lead the league in any receiving category, these two weeks will undoubtedly hold him back from that. Still, it doesn’t take away his ability to wreck a game on any given play.

This week, Jefferson and the Vikings take on the Saints. Still, Jefferson has a tough battle as he’ll line up primarily against cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

So, why would we bet on a guy to go over 6.5 receptions against his most challenging task yet?

It boils down to Jefferson’s talent.

While the last two weeks haven’t been kind to the Jefferson stat line, we have to remember this is an elite player who is matchup-proof.

There’s also something to be said about getting the ball to your best players, and the Vikings need to do that to win games.

Also, heading to London, the travel of that can impact players differently, including Lattimore.

Look for the Vikings to get Jefferson involved early and often in this one, even if they’re shorter passes to get the ball in his hand.

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Pick: Josh Allen Under 6.5 Carries (+116) at Caesars

The Buffalo Bills have been a dominant team this season. They lost in Week 3 on the road against the Miami Dolphins. Still, they were without numerous secondary players, and let’s face it—that Miami heat impacted them quite drastically.

Nonetheless, they lost the game, but there was a key takeaway from it that may be a bit under-the-radar—the Bills need to get some ground game going.

The primary runner for the team has been quarterback Josh Allen.

So far this season, the signal-caller has 19 carries while running back Devin Singletary has 23. This isn’t much of a disparity, especially considering Allen had 10 in Week 1 and eight more in Week 3.

Here, we have a line of 6.5 with a +116 tag, and we’re taking it.

The Ravens secondary has been brutal this season, allowing an obscene number of passing yards.

The Bills and Allen can take advantage of this. No, it won’t be like Week 2 against the Tennessee Titans, where they scored 41 and Allen had just one carry, but the passing game will be much more enticing in this one for the Bills.

Allen will still run with the ball, but coming off that Miami loss, they’ll try to air it out and perhaps find some answers out of the backfield running the ball.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets

Pick: Breece Hall Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM

This may be the game to avoid most if you’re looking for offense this weekend.

Going up against the Steelers in Week 4, the Jets will have quarterback Zach Wilson back after he suffered a knee injury in the preseason.

Baseline Wilson is already a bit of a rollercoaster ride on offense, but the rust could rear its ugly head here.

With that, you’d think the team would want to rely on the ground game, but instead, we’re taking the under on rookie running back Breece Halls’ rushing total of 38.5.

Despite being a top pick in the 2022 NFL Draft for the Jets, Hall has posted rushing totals of 23, 50, and 39 between Weeks 1 and 3.

The Steelers are without edge rusher T.J. Watt of course. Still, they have some solid run defenders, including edge rusher Alex Highsmith. As always, Cameron Heyward is a guy to look out for.

The Jets have worked in Michael Carter plenty this season. He has seven more carries this season.

While the Jets may want to establish the run here, the Steelers defense is still good enough to get after Wilson and perhaps make them play from behind.

Things can get even worse when the Jets need to play from behind with Wilson at quarterback.

The Steelers will win this game, hold the Jets in check, and the rushing totals will be pretty unsavory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Tom Brady Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-110) at DraftKings

Sitting at 2-1 this season, we cannot say this is due to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. This season, the team has yet to score more than 20 points.

This week, they may need to get that on track fast as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs.

This may not be the Chiefs offenses from years past, but quarterback Patrick Mahomes is still one of the best passers in the game.

So far this season, Brady’s attempts per game have ramped up, going from 27 to 34 to 42.

After having few options to work with against the Green Bay Packers, Brady should have more in this one.

The Chiefs aren’t exactly known for their rushing attack, and you know that Mahomes, no matter how good the opposing defense is, will pass the ball.

The Buccaneers would love to get running back Leonard Fournette going, but utilizing his weapons against a somewhat-squishy secondary will be how the Buccaneers pull this one off. Brady goes beyond 40 attempts in this one.