Best Lamar Jackson Prop Bets: Ravens Offense to Lean More on Lamar’s Legs

• Lamar Jackson is averaging 84.7 rushing yards per game this season

• Baltimore's offensive line ranks above league average in Run Block Win Rate

• The Buffalo Bills front seven ranks 26th overall in Run Defense PFF Grade

In a must-win situation, the Baltimore Ravens managed to ward off the Dallas Cowboys' second-half surge to help secure a 28-25 victory. Their ground game was instrumental in their win over Dallas as Derrick Henry ran for 151 yards on 25 attempts while reigning MVP Lamar Jackson added another 87. With head coach John Harbaugh making it clear earlier in the season Derrick Henry will not regularly see a heavy workload, Lamar Jackson may have to take the reins as their go-to source of rush production.

Especially with negative regression looming large over the Buffalo Bills front seven as they currently rank 3rd overall in Run Defense Win Rate but 26th in Run Defense PFF Grade. Their rush defense metrics are also a tad inflated as they benefited from Tua Tagovailoa getting injured in their contest against the Miami Dolphins as it allowed the Bills to stack the box at a heavier rate. Even in a blowout victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, Travis Etienne still managed to average over six yards per carry.

As for where you can wager on Lamar Jackson’s player props, BetMGM Sportsbook has a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile sportsbooks. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM sportsbook, you get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at BetMGM

With Derrick Henry fresh off of a heavy workload, he may take a back seat to Lamar Jackson as we saw in their season opener. Especially given the circumstances of their matchup as negative regression looms large over their front seven in regard to defending the run. Entering week four, the Bills front seven ranks an impressive 3rd overall in Run Defense Win Rate but a lowly 26th in Run Defense PFF Grade.

The Bills' defensive scheme also leaves them prone to getting beat by mobile quarterbacks as they anchor their linebackers in coverage while relying on just their front four to generate pressure in the trenches. With the Ravens' offensive line ranking above league average in Run Block Win Rate and PFF Grade, expect Baltimore to neutralize the Bills' pressure in the trenches. With little to no pushback, Lamar will find himself with plenty of rushing lanes for him to exploit while the Bills back end scrambles in coverage.

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Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM

With an uptick in carries, Lamar Jackson will have less opportunities to burn the under on his longest completion prop as each carry takes away a potential pass attempt. Especially when it’s against a Bills defense who favors defending the pass as previously mentioned, lessening the quality of his throws while his pass catchers deal with heavier coverage.

The Ravens' pass attack is also built around their offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s scheme that he deployed in college, relying on quick throws to their playmakers to help get them out into the open field. While his scheme helps raise the quality of Lamar’s throws, it also lessens the chance of generating an explosive play. Running his scheme in the NFL also brings less variance than when he did it in college as the quality of defenses are far better in terms of keeping playmakers in front of them.

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Under 0.5 Interception (-120) at BetMGM

Keeping the theme of higher quality throws on less pass attempts, the Ravens' scheme also shades value towards the under on his interception prop as Lamar is in a position to string together an efficient outing. Even when it’s against a defense who anchors their linebacking unit in coverage, Lamar should still benefit from high-quality passing lanes out to the flats and outside the numbers.

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Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-169) at Caesars 

While Derrick Henry may be used less in the middle of the field, the Ravens offense would be wise to deploy him when in scoring territory. Especially when the Bills back end gets the benefit of having to cover less ground when in the red zone, allowing them to stretch out in coverage. With fewer bodies to help create contact in the trenches against Henry, the bull back should have no issue with churning out extra yards towards the goal line.

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Lamar Jackson 2024 Stats

• Passing Yards: 702

• Passing Touchdowns: 3

• Interceptions: 1

• Completion Percentage: 65.6%

• Rushing Yards: 254

• Rushing Touchdowns: 1