Best Lamar Jackson Prop Bets: Fade Lamar’s Arm Against the Stout Texans Secondary

• Lamar Jackson’s odds to win the NFL MVP award have steadily grown

• The Baltimore Ravens have clinched a spot in the playoffs

• Houston’s secondary ranks top-10 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After Josh Allen suffered an injury to his throwing hand, the Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson has seen his odds to win his second straight MVP award steadily grow. Should Lamar steal the award from Josh Allen at the last second, then he would be just the sixth player in NFL history to win three MVP’s. Lamar certainly has a case for winning the award, yet he still needs to play at a high level while the Bills quarterback hogs most of the spotlight.

Maintaining his high level of play will be tough as the Ravens are set to face off against the Houston Texans in a potential AFC Conference championship preview. Houston’s defense has arguably been one of the best units in the league this season as they enter the contest ranked top-10 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their defensive line has played a major role in their high marks and possess more than enough production to break down a Ravens offensive line who ranks top-5 in Pass Protection.

As for where to wager on Lamar Jackson’s player props, BetMGM Sportsbook has a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile apps. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Under 219.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only do the Baltimore Ravens have to play on short rest, but they get the unfortunate favor of having to face off against the Houston Texans who field one of the best defenses in the league. Especially in regard to defending against the pass as the Texans secondary ranks near the top of the board in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Houston also anchors their linebackers in coverage at a high rate, giving them more bodies spread across the field to help lessen the quality of opposing passing lanes.

To make matters worse for Lamar, the Ravens star quarterback may find himself under more pressure than he is accustomed to as the Texans defensive line ranks top-5 in Def Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate. Even with his own offensive line excelling in Pass Protection, Lamar may find himself scrambling away from pressure at a more consistent rate. When scrambling, the quality of Lamar’s throws will drastically decline which hurts his chances of making a completion.

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Under 19.5 Pass Completions (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, Lamar Jackson will find it tough to connect with his pass catchers while throwing on the run and into low quality passing lanes. Especially if his number one target Zay Flowers is unable to play while dealing with a shoulder injury, allowing the Texans to bracket Mark Andrews near the line and shade their coverage towards Rashod Bateman. As of writing, Flowers is listed as questionable on the Ravens injury report after missing Monday’s practice.

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Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (-148) at Caesars Sportsbook

With the Ravens pass catchers expected to struggle with creating separation from the Texans coverage, Lamar may take it upon himself to extend plays with his legs at a higher rate to help sustain drives down the field. The Ravens quarterback may also receive an uptick in designed runs to help burn the Texans anchored linebackers as Derrick Henry will command defensive attention to the middle of the field while Lamar scrambles to the outside.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+230) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While Lamar Jackson has accounted for 40 total touchdowns this season, only three of them have come from his legs. Even with Derrick Henry receiving a majority share of the carries when inside the 20, Lamar has still accounted for over a third of the Ravens total rush attempts. Factor in the Texans tendency to anchor their linebackers across the middle and Lamar will have opportunities to take off and run should a high quality rushing lane open up while the Texans are scrambled in coverage.  

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Lamar Jackson 2024 Stats

• Passing Yards: 3,787

• Passing Touchdowns: 37

• Interceptions: 4

• Completion Percentage: 67.9%

• Passing Yards per game: 252.5

• Rushing Yards: 765

• Rushing Touchdowns: 3