Best Lamar Jackson Prop Bets: Will Jackson Give an MVP Performance Against the Bills?

• Lamar Jackson threw for just 175 yards in last week’s win over the Steelers.

• In eight career playoff games, Jackson has just seven passing touchdowns.

• Jackson is averaging 86 rushing yards per game in his eight career playoff games.

For prop bets involving Jackson or any other player, bet365 Sportsbook is a great option. The platform is easy to navigate and has a large collection of prop bets for every NFL game. Plus, new users who sign up with bet365 using our link get a choice between a safety net of $1,000 on their first bet or collecting $150 in bonus bets. Returning users can also utilize other promos, including early payouts and parlay boosts.

There should be no doubt that the most anticipated game of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is Sunday’s primetime game between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. The biggest reason is that it brings together the two leading contenders for MVP: Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. The first meeting between these teams this season was a blowout in Baltimore’s favor, so Jackson and Allen didn’t have a chance to showcase themselves. That will likely change this week as both quarterbacks attempt to carry their team to the AFC Championship Game. Jackson, in particular, is hoping to deliver in a big game and quell the belief that he can’t win big games in the playoffs.

In addition to checking out Jackson’s prop bets this week, this is the perfect time to take a close look at the Super Bowl LIX odds now that there are just eight teams left in the hunt. If you want to go one step further, Jackson is one of the players who figures prominently in the current Super Bowl MVP odds. Of course, if you would rather not get ahead of yourself, here are the best prop bets involving Jackson for this week’s game.

Lamar Jackson Under 215.5 Passing Yards (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook 

During the back half of the season, it’s been rare to see Jackson post big numbers in the passing game. He’s surpassed 215.5 passing yards just three times in his last eight games. In one of those games, Jackson barely went over that number. Last week, Jackson finished with a mere 175 passing yards against the Steelers. While the Ravens led comfortably all game, creating no need for Jackson to throw the ball a lot, Baltimore is also far more comfortable leaning on Derrick Henry and running the ball.

As long as Sunday’s game against the Bills remains close, which is likely to be the case, there is no need for the Ravens to abandon the run and make Jackson throw the ball. With Zay Flowers, the team’s leading receiver, listed as questionable because of an injury that forced him to miss last week’s game, it will be hard for Baltimore to create big plays in the passing game. The cold and snowy conditions in Buffalo could also hinder Jackson’s ability as a passer. Those factors should lead to another modest passing total for Jackson.

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Lamar Jackson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook 

Even if the Ravens don’t want to force the issue with Jackson throwing the ball, he’ll have the green light to run as much as he wants. Even in a game that the Ravens controlled most of the way, Jackson ran 15 times for 81 yards against Pittsburgh last week. He’s now rushed for over 50 yards in five of his last six games. With games getting more important late in the season, Jackson has been far more willing to run. This week’s game will be no different, especially since Jackson is averaging 86 rushing yards per game across his seven career playoff games.

Keep in mind that the first meeting between the Ravens and Bills this season was also a game Baltimore controlled for the most part. Even in that game when Jackson didn’t need to run that much, he collected 54 rushing yards on just six carries. During the Wild Card Round, the Bills let Denver’s Bo Nix get loose for 43 rushing yards on just four carries. Kyler Murray also gained 57 yards on just five carries against the Buffalo defense this season. Even if they know Jackson will use his legs, the Bills have been vulnerable against running quarterbacks, which points to Jackson racking up a lot of rushing yards in this game.

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Lamar Jackson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook 

To be clear, this bet is very much against the grain. Jackson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games and in 11 of his last 12 games. That would seem to make him a safe bet to throw at least two touchdown passes again. However, all of the reasons why Jackson may not throw for a lot of yards this week also apply to this bet. The weather conditions will not be ideal for throwing the ball, especially when the Ravens can rely on Jackson and Henry to use their legs in the red zone.

It’s also worth noting that Jackson has just eight passing touchdowns in seven career playoff games. That includes the two he had last week in a relatively easy win. Jackson also threw a famous pick-six in the red zone against the Bills in the playoffs four years ago. That could also make the Ravens more comfortable running the ball in the red zone. Also, if Flowers doesn’t play, the Baltimore passing game is a little more limited. While tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are both excellent red-zone targets, the Bills have only given up five touchdowns to tight ends in 18 games this season. The bottom line is that it won’t be easy for Jackson to throw passing touchdowns this week. It’s perhaps more likely that he’ll score with his legs, which is why we’re taking under 1.5 passing touchdowns.

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Lamar Jackson Stats

At the end of the regular season, here are Lamar Jackson’s complete stat line for the 2024 season (not including the playoffs):

• Pass Completions: 316

• Pass Attempts: 474

• Completion Percentage: 66.7%

• Passing Yards: 4,172

• Touchdown Passes: 41

• Interceptions: 4

• Yards Per Pass: 8.8

• QB Rating: 119.6

• Carries: 139

• Rushing Yards: 915

• Yard Per Carry: 6.6

• Rushing Touchdowns: 4