Josh Jacobs already has a career-high 13 rushing touchdowns this season
The Minnesota defense allows just 87 rushing yards per game, which is the second-fewest in the NFL
Josh Jacobs has totaled at least four receptions for at least 38 yards in four of his last six games
On the heels of the worst season of his career, Josh Jacobs has responded with arguably his best season during his first year in Green Bay. He’s already set a new career high for rushing touchdowns with 13. Jacobs also has over 1,200 rushing yards with two games left. The 2022 season is the only time he’s surpassed his current rushing total. After yet another productive game in Green Bay’s blowout win over the Saints this past Monday, Jacobs is an intriguing player to target for prop bets for a Week 17 game against the Vikings.
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Unfortunately for Jacobs and the Packers, they are out of the running in the NFC North. However, the race for the NFC North title remains one of the most compelling heading into the final two weeks of the season. Meanwhile, the Packers are very much an intriguing sleeper when it comes to the current Super Bowl LIX odds. For the immediate future, let’s look at three prop bets involving Jacobs for Week 17 when the Packers visit the Vikings.
Be forewarned that the Vikings are tied for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed all season. The Minnesota defense has conceded just seven touchdowns on the ground. They’ve also allowed the second-fewest rushing yards and are tied for the second-fewest yards per carry allowed. However, Jacobs has been on such a hot streak when it comes to finding the end zone that almost none of that matters.
Jacobs has scored a touchdown in six consecutive games. During that stretch, he has scored 10 total touchdowns thanks to two different games in which he scored three touchdowns. The Packers know how successful he’s been, especially in the red zone. They are going to continue to put their faith in him and trust that he’ll find his way to the end zone. Even without the most lucrative odds, it’s worth betting on this streak continuing.
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Admittedly, this pick is a little against the grain. As mentioned, the Vikings are one of the best teams in the NFL at stopping the run. They allow an average of 87 rushing yards per game. However, Jacobs is likely to get most of Green Bay’s rush attempts. He doesn’t have to worry about splitting carries with a backup, so he figures to get close to 20 carries, if not more. That should be enough to rack up over 71.5 rushing yards, which is a low figure because of Minnesota’s defensive prowess.
Jacobs has gone over that number in six of his last nine games. Despite some low rushing totals in recent weeks, in a big game like this, the Packers will lean on their most consistent offensive player, which has been Jacobs. In a blowout win last week, Jacobs only rushed for 69 yards on 13 carries because the Packers didn’t need him. In what should be a close game, the Packers will ride Jacobs as much as possible, so based on volume alone, he should go over 71.5 rushing yards.
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Not surprisingly, the Minnesota defense is good at preventing running backs from gaining a lot of yards in the passing game. They allow just 28 receiving yards per game from opposing running backs. However, even if Jacobs doesn’t hit that number, he still has a chance to amass over 17.5 receiving yards. Considering his recent production in this area, this number is surprisingly low, so it’s hard not to take the over.
The caveat is that Jacobs has been hit or miss as a pass-catcher lately. In two of his last five games, Jacobs has recorded no receptions, which obviously left him with no receiving yards. However, in four of his last six games, Jacobs has at least four catches, racking up at least 38 receiving yards in those games. He also had four catches for 27 yards early in the season when the Packers hosted the Vikings. That’s a sign that Jordan Love and the Packers will be willing to use Jacobs in the passing game, allowing him to collect far more than 17.5 receiving yards this week.
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After Week 16, here are Josh Jacobs’ current stats:
Carries: 278
Rushing Yards: 1,216
Yards per Carry: 4.4
Touchdowns: 13
Receptions: 35
Receiving Yards: 340
Receiving Touchdowns: 1
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