Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 against Josh Allen in the playoffs
The Chiefs are favored by 1.5 points at home
Allen averages 10.4 rushing attempts per game against Kansas City
We have targeted three Allen props in this game that we are taking on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes once again square off in the AFC Championship game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Allen has owned Mahomes in the regular season but has yet to beat him in the postseason.
Every time Allen and Mahomes compete, many points are typically scored, making it a great game for player props. Allen has been outstanding against the Chiefs' defense despite the record in the playoffs.
Buffalo has been waiting for this matchup for a long time, and now it is time for Allen to shine.
Allen is no stranger to the endzone this season, scoring 12 times in the regular season. Against Baltimore in the Divisional round, Allen scored twice on ten carries.
With the game on the line, there is no better quarterback to trust this season than Josh Allen. His ability to make plays on his feet while avoiding pressure is phenomenal, which is why we believe he will score.
This season, Allen has 120 carries with 592 yards on the ground. His ability to extend plays on his feet is outstanding, and we think he will have plenty of chances to score.
Chris Jones and George Karlaftis are two great pass rushers who will be getting after Allen all game. Allen must scramble out of the pocket and run the football against the Chiefs.
We expect Allen to continue his hot streak while rushing the football, including scoring a touchdown in the AFC Championship game.
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Allen loves running the football against Kansas City in his career. In eight games against Kansas City, he has averaged 10.4 rushing attempts per game.
In this span, Allen averages 56 yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry against the Chiefs. We expect the game script to stay the same, with Allen running the football a ton.
Considering how much Allen loves running against Kansas City, he averaged six attempts per game this season against any other team.
The Chiefs will play with a quarterback spy throughout this game, so we’re targeting Allen’s attempts instead of yards.
Expect Allen to focus on running the football when wideouts aren’t getting open, as we see him quickly clearing this number.
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With Allen’s obsession with running the football against Kansas City, we think he goes under his passing touchdown prop. Allen averaged 1.6 passing touchdowns per game in 2024.
Allen has stayed under this number seven times this season, including the last matchup against the Chiefs. In this game, Allen threw for 262 yards with a touchdown and interception.
Kansas City has the 19th-best pass defense this season, which isn’t great, but they have always made Allen beat them on the ground. The Bills also love utilizing James Cook in the red zone, which takes away opportunities from Allen throwing the ball.
This is a game where Allen gets taken away through the air, resulting in under 1.5 passing touchdowns.
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Passing Yards: 3,731
Touchdowns: 28
Interceptions: 6
Rushing Yards: 531
Rushing Touchdowns: 12
QBR: 77.3
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