The Washington Commanders upset the Detroit Lions as a +8.5 underdog
Jayden Daniels finished the contest against Detroit with 16 rush attempts for 51 yards
The Eagles' secondary ranks top-3 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate
After upsetting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wildcard round, the Washington Commanders' run was expected to come to a halt as they were listed as a +8.5 point underdog against the Detroit Lions. That did not phase Jayden Daniels as the front runner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award led the Commanders to a shocking 45-31 victory over the number one seed in the NFC.
In their win, Daniels took it upon himself to keep drives alive with his legs as he finished the contest with 16 rush attempts for 51 yards. Against Philadelphia in the NFC Conference Championship, Daniels will once again have to rely on his legs to counter the Eagles front seven who excel at collapsing the pocket and bringing down the quarterback. Utilizing Daniels legs also negates the variance that comes with throwing against a secondary who ranks top-3 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
As for where to wager on Jayden Daniels player props, BetMGM Sportsbook has a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile apps. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.
After easily cashing the over on Jayden Daniels rush attempts prop against the Detroit Lions in the divisional round, we go back to the well on Sunday as he will need to utilize his legs at an aggressive rate against the vaunted Eagles defense. The Eagles have excelled at collapsing the pocket this season as their front seven heads into the NFC Conference Championship ranked top-15 in Def Adjusted Sack Rate and Def Adjusted Line Yards.
With the Commanders grading out poorly in Pass Block, the Eagles' defensive line will have the opportunity to generate pressure at a consistent rate. This will force Daniels into more scrambling situations, potentially leading to a rush attempt. Daniels may also receive an uptick in designed runs to help combat against the Eagles' elite coverage as their secondary ranks near the top of the board in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
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Even though Daniels may receive an uptick in rush attempts to counter the Eagles' defensive line, he will struggle to generate an explosive play once he gets past the line of scrimmage. This is because the Eagles anchor their linebackers in coverage at one of the heaviest rates in the league, giving them bodies spread across the middle to help slow down Daniels in the open field. Barring a broken play, expect Daniels to struggle to fight past the contact once he reaches the second level of the Eagles' defense.
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As previously mentioned, the Eagles' secondary have arguably been one of the more formidable units in the league as they currently rank top-3 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their suffocating coverages forces opposing quarterbacks to throw into low-quality passing lanes, drastically reducing their chances of generating a completion. With Daniels also expected to see an increase in rush attempts, he will have less opportunities to air out the ball which shades value towards the under on this prop.
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After gashing the Lions' front seven for two rushing touchdowns, Brian Robinson Jr now faces a much tougher test as he tries to churn out yards against an Eagles defense who ranks top-6 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. With regression looming large, the Commanders may revert to more designed runs for Daniels in an attempt to shift their linebackers and create a rushing lane for him to exploit. This prop is also a reminder to always shop around for the best line as Daniels to score a touchdown can be found as low as +160 at Caesars and as high as +200 at BetMGM.
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Passing Yards: 567
Passing Touchdowns: 4
Total Interceptions: 0
Completion Percentage: 69.7%
Rushing Yards: 87
Rushing Touchdowns: 0
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