Ja’Marr Chase is steadily climbing up the oddsboard for the Offensive Player of the Year award
The Cincinnati Bengals offense ranks top-10 in Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA
The Los Angeles Chargers defense generates pressure at one of the lowest rates in the league
After finishing last week’s matchup against their AFC North division rivals with 264 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns, Ja’Marr Chase has seen his name steadily creep up the oddsboard for the Offensive Player of the Year award. His latest performance now puts him at 981 total receiving yards for the season, leading all pass catchers heading into week 11. Chase has also already hauled in 66 receptions while generating 10 receiving touchdowns.
While the Los Angeles Chargers' top-10 ranks in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA normally indicate negative regression is looming, Ja’Marr Chase may be in or another big outing as he will get the benefit of having extra time in the open field to help create separation from their coverage. This is because the Chargers' defensive line ranks near dead last in Pressure Rate, meaning the Bengals' offense will have more time to let plays develop while Joe Burrow sits in a clean pocket.
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While it has not exactly translated to wins, the Cincinnati Bengals' pass attack has continued to terrorize opposing defenses as they enter week 11 ranked near the top of the board in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Joe Burrow has had no issue connecting with his star wide receiver this season as Ja’Marr Chase is averaging an astonishing 98.1 receiving yards per game and 14.9 yards per reception.
Against the Los Angeles Chargers, the star duo will need to continue to maintain their high level of play as they face off against a defense that ranks equally as well in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA. While the Chargers' high marks in coverage seem daunting at first glance, Ja’Marr Chase will get the benefit of having extra time in the open field to create separation from their coverage as their front seven ranks near dead last in Pressure Rate. With more time to exploit the Chargers' gaps in coverage, Ja’Marr Chase will generate higher-quality passing lanes for Joe Burrow to throw to.
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Not only will extra time in the pocket allow Chase to break away from the Chargers coverage in his routes across the middle, but it will also increase the quality of Burrow’s throws when they decide to go deep. We saw flashes of their deep ball potential last week when Chase routinely burned the Baltimore Ravens' secondary for multiple explosive plays. With Burrow now getting to set his feet instead of throwing under pressure, we should see another healthy dose of big gains from the star duo.
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With the Chargers' front seven excelling at stuffing the run as their high marks in Def Rush Success Rate and EPA indicate, the Bengals may be better off remaining aggressive with the pass when in scoring position. Especially if Tee Higgins is able to make his return from injury as his presence would help command defensive attention, freeing up Chase from any potential double coverage he may receive in the shortened field.
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For some added fun, also sprinkle a wager on Ja’Marr Chase to be the first touchdown scorer. With the Bengals' offense being in a better position to consistently move the ball down the field, as well as the Chargers' front seven excelling at stuffing the run, value in the first touchdown scorer market shades towards the Bengals' pass catchers. If you want multiple outs, then split a unit on Chase and their tight end Mike Gesicki.
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Total Receiving Yards: 981
Total Receiving Touchdowns: 10
Total Receptions: 66
Average Receiving Yards Per Reception: 14.9
Average Receiving Yards Per Game: 98.1
Total Yards After Catch: 451
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