Jalen Hurts has scored at least one rushing touchdowns in 10 of his last 12 completed games.
Opposing quarterbacks have attempted at least 28 passes in all but one of Kansas City’s games this season.
Jalen Hurts has rushed for 752 yards this season (regular and postseason combined).
There should be no question that Jalen Hurt is on the shortlist for the most important players in Super Bowl LIX. If he doesn’t play well, the Eagles are going to have a hard time beating the Chiefs. That makes Hurts a fascinating player to look at with regard to prop bets. Yet, given the prowess of the Kansas City defense, Hurts will have his work cut out for him, which is why it’s worth taking a closer look at some of Hurts’ prop bets.
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After scoring three rushing touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game, it feels like a safe bet that Hurts will find a way into the end zone in the Super Bowl. If the Eagles get the ball inside the two-yard line, they usually call the famous tush-push that allows Hurts to score. If you take away the Week 16 game in which Hurts barely played because of an injury, he’s scored at least one rushing touchdown in 10 of his last 12 games. Based on that track record, the odds for Hurts as an anytime touchdown scorer should be far shorter.
To be fair, the Chiefs did a great job against Buffalo’s tush-push in the AFC Championship Game. They were well-prepared to stop Josh Allen in short-yardage situations, including the infamous fourth down that essentially gave Kansas City the game. The Chiefs will have had two weeks to prepare for Philly’s tush-push play. But that’s still not enough to bet against Hurts, who is also a threat to get loose in the open field, which is how he scored the first touchdown in the Divisional Round against the Rams.
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Hurts doesn’t always throw the ball this many times in games. After all, the Eagles would rather rely on Saquon Barkley and the running game to do most of the damage. In fact, since the start of October, Hurts has only thrown 28 or more passes three times in 13 full games. One of those games was a loss, so one could argue that if Hurts has to throw the ball a lot, things aren’t going well for the Eagles.
On the other hand, the Chiefs are likely going to be prepared for the Philadelphia running game. Kansas City’s defensive strategy could be for Hurts to beat them with his arm. It’s also worth mentioning that Week 4 was the last time an opposing team made fewer than 28 pass attempts against the Chiefs. That trend is hard to go against. Part of that is because the Chiefs typically lead late in games. But it’s also the way the Chiefs play defense. One way or another, the Kansas City defense forces teams to throw the ball, which is why I like this prop for Hurts.
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Even if there is some lingering concern over the health of Hurts’ knee, it’s a safe bet that he’s going to run the ball plenty in this game. Granted, he was limited to just 16 rushing yards in the NFC Championship Game. But since the Eagles led for much of that game, there was no need for Hurts to run and put his knee at risk. But in the Super Bowl, the Eagles know that they can’t hold anything back. That means putting Hurts in a position to run the ball, especially if the Chiefs are focusing too much on stopping Barkley.
Also, the Chiefs have been vulnerable to running quarterbacks this season, giving up the fifth most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season. Including Kansas City’s two playoff games, four straight opposing quarterbacks have rushed for over 38.5 yards against them. Even C.J. Stroud and Russell Wilson, who aren’t known for their running abilities, found plenty of running room against the Chiefs. That bodes well for Hurts to pick up plenty of yards with his legs in Super Bowl LIX.
Looking for more player props? Take a look at our selection of the best player props for the Eagles vs Chiefs matchup.
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Pass Completions: 48
Pass Attempts: 69
Completion Percentage: 69.6%
Passing Yards: 505
Touchdown Passes: 3
Interceptions: 0
Yards Per Pass: 7.3
QB Rating: 105
Carries: 23
Rushing Yards: 122
Yard Per Carry: 5.3
Rushing Touchdowns: 4
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