Best Jahmyr Gibbs Prop Bets: Lions Best Path For Success Resides on the Ground

• Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 1.51 Yards Over Expected Per Carry

• The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks first overall in Adjusted Line Yards

• Houston’s secondary ranks top-10 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Sack Rate

A versatile running back who can burn opposing defenders with his elite speed and maneuverability, Jahmyr Gibbs has been a consistent source of offensive production for the Detroit Lions and has played a key role in their resurgence as a viable Super Bowl contender. Even when splitting duties with David Montgomery, Gibbs has managed to capitalize on his opportunities by averaging 1.51 Yards Over Expected Per Carry while also averaging 20.6 receiving yards per game.

With Houston’s secondary ranking near the top of the board in Def Pass Success Rate, DVOA, EPA, and Adjusted Sack Rate, the Lions best path for success may involve a heavier dose of the run. While the Texans front seven also grades out well in stopping the run, Jahmyr Gibbs gets the benefit of running behind an offensive line that ranks first overall in Adjusted Line Yards. Should Jared Goff find himself under relentless pressure, then Gibbs may also see an uptick in receptions as a viable dump off option.

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Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

While the Lions pass attack is one of the more efficient units in the league, regression is looming large as they face off against a Texans secondary who ranks top-10 in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA. Not only does Houston’s back end excel in coverage, but their front line consistently generates pressure by ranking near the top of the board in Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate. That spells potential disaster for Jared Goff as the Lions offensive line has dipped down to 13th in True Pass Protection Grade.

In order to combat against the Texans elite coverage, the Lions offense may opt into a heavier dose of the run to help command defensive attention towards the middle of the field. Even when against a front seven that ranks equally as well in stopping the run per DVOA and Success Rate, Gibbs gets the benefit of running behind an offensive line that ranks first overall in Adjusted Line Yards and creates high quality rushing lanes at a consistent rate.

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Over 11.5 Rush Attempts (-146) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, Jahmyr Gibbs should see an uptick in carries as keeping the ball on the ground is their best path for success. This also helps neutralize the negative variance that comes with throwing when under pressure while also avoiding a turnover worthy play that may flip the field in Houston’s favor. 

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Longest Reception Over 9.5 Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook

Not only is Gibbs potentially in for a heavy workload on the ground, but he may see an uptick in receptions as a viable dump off option for Jared Goff when he is under duress. This gives Gibbs the opportunity to take advantage of a scrambled secondary after receiving the pass, gaining sizable chunks of yards at a time before making contact. The Texans second level of their defense will also be stretched out thin against the Lions pass attack, creating more space in the open field for Gibbs to work with.

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Anytime Touchdown (-145) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

After conceding red zone duties to David Montgomery last year, Jahmyr Gibbs has nearly matched the bull back in total carries this season. Gibbs also gets the benefit of being heavily used in the Lions pass attack, sitting only behind Amon-Ra St Brown for the most targets when inside the 20. With his versatility playing a key role in the Lions efforts of breaking up the Texans stout coverage, expect Gibbs to be heavily involved when in scoring position.

Jahmyr Gibbs 2024 Stats

• Total Rushing Yards: 656

• Total Rushing Touchdowns: 7

• Average Rush Yards Per Carry: 6.4

• Average Rush Yards Per Game: 82.0

• Total Receiving Yards: 165

• Total Receiving Touchdowns: 1