Best Derrick Henry Prop Bets: King Henry to Run Wild Against the Commanders Front Seven

• Derrick Henry is the current betting favorite for the Offensive Player of the Year award

• The Baltimore Ravens ground game ranks top-10 in Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

• The Washington Commanders' front seven ranks near dead last in Def Adjusted Line Yards

After the first game of the season, the Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh announced that they would not run Derrick Henry into the ground with a heavy workload. That has yet to be the case as Henry continues to run wild since joining the Ravens, averaging 19 carries, 6 yards per carry, and 114.4 rushing yards per game. His hot start to the year has resulted in him climbing up the oddsboard for the Offensive Player of the Year award, currently sitting in first with a sizable lead over the rest of the field.

Following a performance against the Cincinnati Bengals that resulted in 92 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown, Henry will have the opportunity to continue his hot stretch of play against a far inferior Washington Commanders defense. Defending the run has been a major issue for the Commanders' front seven, entering the contest ranked well below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their defensive line gives them no support in limiting opposing rush production in the trenches as their front line ranks near dead last in Def Adjusted Line Yards.

As for where to wager on Derrick Henry’s player props, Caesars Sportsbook has an abundance of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile apps. If you have not signed up yet with Caesars Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can get up to $1,000 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSN1000.

Over 84.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Even though Harbaugh’s comments do bring some cause for concern in terms of Henry’s workload throughout the regular season, it’s tough to ignore how favorable of a matchup this is for the Raven’s bull back. Defending the run has been a massive struggle for the Commanders' front seven five games into the season as they enter Sunday’s contest ranked well below league average across the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

Their weak defensive line is mostly to blame for their lack of defensive production as they rank near dead last in Adjusted Line Yards. That indicates the Commanders struggle to contain rush production in the trenches, conceding sizable chunks of yards at a time to opposing running backs. That spells potential disaster for their defense when up against the most physically imposing running back in the league as their lack of contact at the line will allow Henry to continue to get out to the open field.

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To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+380) at Caesars Sportsbook 

While I don’t mind drinking the juice on Derrick Henry’s inflated odds to score a touchdown, his two touchdown scorer prop is also worth a wager as the Ravens offense should generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Not only do the Commanders' defense struggle with stuffing the run, but their secondary has been equally as awful in coverage as they enter the contest ranked well below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

Against a Ravens offense who ranks top-10 in both the run and the pass in the same previously mentioned advanced metrics, the Commanders' defense will be hard-pressed to stop Lamar Jackson and company in their efforts of moving the ball down the field at a consistent rate. This will result in an uptick in potential scoring opportunities, giving Henry more carries in the red zone and a higher chance of cashing this prop.

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First Touchdown Scorer (+300) at Caesars Sportsbook 

While the Commanders' offense have been the best unit in the league in terms of EPA per Play, they face their toughest defensive test yet with the Ravens' defense ranking above league average in Def Rush and Pass DVOA. That may result in the Commanders' offense stalling out, shading value for the first touchdown to be scored toward the Ravens. With Derrick Henry being the focal point of their offense when inside the red zone, back the Ravens running-back to score the first touchdown of the game.

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Derrick Henry Stats

• Rushing Yards: 572

• Rushing Touchdowns: 5

• Yards per Carry: 6.0

• Yards per Game: 114.4

• Fumbles: 1