Best Caleb Williams Prop Bets: Bears Pass Attack to Bounce Back Against a Weak Cardinals Secondary

• Caleb Williams ranks below league average in quarterback EPA per Play and PFF Grade

• The Chicago Bears odds to miss the playoffs continue to grow after a 4-3 start to their year

• Arizona’s secondary ranks 20th or worse in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After being selected with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, it was expected Caleb Williams was going to instantly elevate the Chicago Bears offense and lead them to a playoff berth. That has yet to be the case as Williams currently ranks well below league average in quarterback EPA per Play and PFF Grade while his odds to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and the Bears' odds to make the playoffs continue to decline.

Fortunately for Williams, he has the opportunity to bounce back against the lowly Arizona Cardinals defense as their secondary continues to struggle in coverage. Heading into Sunday, the Cardinals rank 20th or worse in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. That opens up higher-quality passing lanes for Caleb Williams and his stacked group of pass catchers to exploit, feeding into his passing props as Williams will have a great chance to sustain drives down the field through the air.

As for where to wager on Caleb Williams player props, BetMGM Sportsbook has a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile apps. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first bet after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

Don’t let Caleb Williams low ranks in EPA per Play and PFF Grade fool you, he has drastically improved since his slow start to the year while elevating the Bears mark in Pass Success Rate to the league average. Williams now has the opportunity to continue to build on his rookie campaign as he is set to face off against one of the worst coverage units in the league. Heading into Sunday, the Cardinals' secondary ranks well below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

Better yet for Williams, he may finally get the benefit of throwing in a clean pocket as the Cardinals' defensive line has struggled with generating pressure as they rank in the bottom half of the board in Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate. A major reason for the Cardinals' struggles with generating pressure is due to their own scheme as they blitz at one of the lowest rates in the league. With a cleaner pocket, expect Williams to stay ahead of the sticks by picking apart the gaps in the Cardinals coverage.

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Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (+100) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, the Cardinals' struggles with generating pressure will allow the Bears' offense to let plays develop. That means more potential pass attempts instead of Caleb Williams having to scramble away from pressure. We may also get the benefit of avoiding a late-game script that revolves around the run as the Cardinals are listed as the slight betting favorite and their explosive offense is capable of staying within the Bears' scoring pace to keep the contest tight.

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Under 0.5 Interception (-108) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

With the Bears fielding four productive pass catchers in DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet, the Cardinals reeling secondary will be stretched out thin trying to cover them all. That means more single coverage, opening up higher-quality passing lanes for Willaims to exploit. Factor in the Cardinals' inability to generate pressure and Williams may avoid danger-worthy throws that come with throwing on the run.

The Bears may also be better off calling the run when in scoring territory as the Cardinals' scheme of anchoring their linebackers in coverage limits Chicago’s pass catchers' ability to create space. The Cardinals also struggle with defending the run when in the red zone as their front seven ranks 22nd in Def Rush EPA. Running the ball also limits the variance that comes with throwing into heavy coverage, increasing the likelihood of Williams keeping a clean sheet in the turnover department. 

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Caleb Williams 2024 Stats

• Passing Yards: 1,448

• Passing Touchdowns: 9

• Completion Percentage: 62.8%

• Average Yards per Completion: 6.5

• Average Yards per Game: 206.9

• Interceptions: 5