Best Baker Mayfield Prop Bets: Divisional Debut Against Atlanta

• The Buccaneers have started the season 3-1

• Tampa Bay dominated Philadelphia, 33-16, in Week 4

• Baker Mayfield is 6th in the NFL in passing yards (984)

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers will battle the Falcons in Atlanta on Thursday Night Football. The Buccaneers have started the season 3-1 and are currently in first place in the NFC South. 

However, Tampa Bay still isn’t picked to win the division or make an NFC Championship run in the odds market. Tampa Bay has been an underdog since Mayfield took over for Tom Brady one year ago. 

While Mayfield is heavily scrutinized, he has just delivered with the Buccaneers. The quarterback is sixth in the NFL in passing yards with 984 and is positioned for a massive night against the Falcons. 

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Baker Mayfield Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-110) at bet365

Mayfield has been throwing the ball all over the field this season. The team consistently targets their star receivers down the field, resulting in Mayfield surpassing his prop lines. 

The Buccaneers' elite passing game includes Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rachaad White. All three players have done an excellent job catching the ball and racking yards after the catch. 

Since the Buccaneers need to make a statement, we expect them to throw the ball early in this contest. For the past twenty years, the Cold, Hard Football Facts have supplied bettors with winning proprietary stats for betting, and these show the Falcons to be an average team. 

Atlanta ranks 16th in Defensive Passer Rating and 23rd in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. They’re also 23rd in Total Team Yards Allowed.

The Buccaneers will have chances through the air in this contest. Mayfield is 9th in the Cold, Hard Football Facts Real Quarterback Rating metric. They’re also 4th in Offensive Passer Rating, so there will be chances down the field. 

Mayfield has gone over his passing line in two of his four starts this season. The quarterback is coming off a game where he threw for 347 yards on 47 attempts. If Tampa Bay struggles running the football, they’ll quickly revert to the pass.

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Baker Mayfield Over 253.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-110) at bet365

Mayfield will win through the air but is also a strong runner. The Buccaneers don’t call many designed quarterback runs, which makes it difficult to bet his rushing line alone. 

Mayfield goes over his rushing line when his opponents get pressure. If he stays clean in the pocket, Mayfield will rarely run. The best way to bet on Mayfield's rushing yards is by combining it with his passing yards. 

The bet365 Sportsbook has a combined market for the quarterback set at 253.5 yards. Mayfield could hit this total just with his throwing. However, since the Falcons are 23rd in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating, they don’t defend any aspect of quarterback play well. 

Mayfield rushed for a combined 55 rushing yards in the first two weeks of the season. Since he wasn’t under pressure against the Eagles, he only had ten rushing yards. Look for the Falcons to get some pressure, leading Mayfield over the line for his passing + rushing yards prop. 

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Baker Mayfield Under 34.5 Yards Longest Completion (-110) at bet365

Although Mayfield doesn’t throw the best deep ball, he is solid at targeting his receivers in the short—to intermediate-passing game. Quick passes don’t usually result in long games, especially with receivers who aren’t Tyreek Hill. 

His longest completion line is 34.5 yards, and he hasn’t had much success hitting this line. Mayfield has gone under his line in three of four games, and the Falcons have been solid at limiting the deep ball. 

The Buccaneers rank 13th in Defensive Real Passing Yards/Attempt. This is the one stat that shines on their side of the ball, and they have to limit it against Mayfled on Thursday.

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