Davante Adams was traded to the New York Jets and is expected to play this weekend
The New York Jets are two games back from Buffalo for first place in the AFC East standings
Pittsburgh’s front seven ranks top-10 in Def Rush Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA
After a 2-4 start to their year, the New York Jets decided to push the rest of their chips into the middle of the table and made a trade for the Las Vegas Raiders star wide receiver Davante Adams to help salvage their Super Bowl hopes. A highly anticipated move that has seemingly been bubbling up for months, now finally official with Aaron Rodgers getting to reunite with his former teammate. Heading into this weekend, interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich has already announced Adams will be available to play.
With Adams good to go, the New York Jets' pass attack will receive an instant boost in production to the benefit of Aaron Rodgers passing props. Especially since the Steelers' secondary no longer gets the benefit of throwing heavy coverage at Garrett Wilson while daring someone else to beat them. This gives Wilson the opportunity to burn his defender when in single coverage, creating higher-quality passing lanes for Rodgers to throw to. Generating pass production is vital in this contest as the Steelers' front seven is one of the best run-stopping units in the league.
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New York could not trade for Davante Adams fast enough as the Jets' offense has struggled mightily with generating pass production. Heading into week seven, the Jets offense ranks below league average across the board in Off Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their lack of playmakers outside of Garrett Wilson is largely to blame, allowing opposing secondaries to throw heavy coverage at Wilson while daring one of the other lower-quality pass catchers to beat them for minimal success.
With Adams opposite of Wilson, opposing secondaries no longer get the benefit of shading their formation towards one side of the field as both receivers are capable of beating any single coverage they may receive. This creates serious pressure towards opposing back ends, potentially opening up wider gaps in coverage to help give Rodgers higher quality passing lanes for him to throw to.
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With scoring opportunities potentially coming at a lower rate than normal against one of the better defenses in the league, the Jets will need to capitalize on their trips in the red zone in order to limit the amount of endgame variance. That means a potential uptick in pass attempts as their ground game should struggle against a Steelers front seven who ranks well above league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Especially when rush production has already been tough for the Jets to come by as they enter the contest ranked near dead last in Off Rush DVOA and EPA.
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Outside the possibility of completing another hail mary, Rodgers should struggle to clear the over on this prop as the Steelers safeties have excelled at keeping opposing playmakers in front of them. Even when having to stretch out in coverage with Adams now in the lineup, the Steelers' second level of their defense will have bodies near the point of contact as they blitz at one of the lowest rates in the league.
Rodgers may also find himself with less time in the pocket at various points of the contest as the Steelers front line ranks well above league average in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. While the Jets' offensive line has drastically improved from last year’s disastrous marks in pass protection, consistently limiting TJ Watt and the Steelers' vaunted line is a tough task. Rodgers is also noticeably still injured, potentially forcing him to get the ball out quicker than normal as his injury hampers his scrambling ability.
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Passing Yards: 1,387
Passing Touchdowns: 9
Completion Percentage: 61.8%
Average Yards per Completion: 6.4
Average Yards per Game: 231.2
Interceptions: 5
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