The Cincinnati Bengals are now 1-4 after last week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens
Joe Burrow currently leads all qualified quarterbacks in EPA per Play
The New York Giants defense ranks well below league average in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA
After losing to the Baltimore Ravens in a thrilling AFC North divisional matchup, the Cincinnati Bengals are in desperate need of sparking a hot stretch of play in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. Fortunately for the Bengals, they have the opportunity to do just that as they are set to face off against the lowly New York Giants whose defense ranks below league average across the board in Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Bengals | -3.5 (+100) | -178 | Over 48 (-110) |
New York Giants | +3.5 (-120) | +150 | Under 48 (-110) |
With the Giants' secondary ranking well below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate, Joe Burrow and the vaunted Bengals pass attack will face minimal resistance in their efforts of airing out the ball. Especially with Tee Higgins steadily rounding back into form since returning from injury, giving Burrow another highly productive pass catcher to throw to. With Offensive Player of the Year contender Ja’Marr Chase commanding double coverage and help side support from safeties, Higgins may benefit from an uptick in targets as he exploits the gaps of the defense.
Even at 1-4, the Bengals have managed to remain competitive due to fielding one of the best offenses in the league in terms of overall DVOA. Burrow now has the opportunity to continue to lead all quarterbacks in EPA per Play as the Giants' secondary has struggled mightily in coverage. Factor in the Giants' inability to excel at any area on offense, and the Bengals' offense will also receive an uptick in offensive possessions. Limit your amount risked at -3.5 with intentions of adding more should the Bengals tick down to the key number of -3.
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After failing to throw the ball just once in a potential game-winning drive in overtime against the Baltimore Ravens, Zac Taylor would be wise to learn from his mistakes by calling a heavier dose of the pass this time around. Especially when the Giants secondary grades out poorly in DVOA, Success Rate, and EPA, now having to defend against one of the most high-powered pass attacks in the league. Joe Burrow has been playing at a high rate since the start of the season, leading all quarterbacks in EPA per Play while ranking above league average in Efficiency and PFF Grade.
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While the Giants' back end has struggled in coverage, their front line has done a far better job at collapsing the pocket and stuffing the run in the trenches as New York ranks first overall in Adjusted Sack Rate and 14th in Def Rush DVOA. Factor in the Bengals potentially being without starting running back Zack Moss, and Joe Burrow may see an uptick in pass attempts as shredding the Giants' anemic secondary is their best path for success.
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Keeping the theme on the Bengals' pass attack thriving against the Giants' secondary, Tee Higgins may be in for a big game as one of Burrow’s go-to options at receiver. Especially if their star wideout Ja’Marr Chase is forced to deal with double coverage, opening up holes elsewhere on the field for Higgins to exploit. Factor in their tight end Mike Gesicki potentially sitting out with an injury, and that may also lead to an uptick in targets for Higgins to help clear the over on his receiving yards prop.
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When: Sunday, October 13
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Where to Watch: NBC
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RB Zack Moss - Questionable
TE Mike Gesicki - Questionable
DT Sheldon Rankins - Questionable
RB Devin Singletary - Questionable
LB Kayvon Thibodeaux - Questionable
OL Jon Runyan - Questionable
LB Brian Burns - Questionable
CB Dru Phillips - Questionable
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