NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions & Odds 2024: Derrick Henry Remains Leader in Three-Horse Race

• Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey were neck and neck for Offensive Player of the Year honors throughout the 2023 season with McCaffrey ultimately winning the award.

• Non-quarterbacks have won OPOTY every year since Patrick Mahomes won the award in 2018.

• Peyton Manning in 2013 was the last player to win multiple Offensive Player of the Year awards.

The Offensive Player of the Year award is one of the more unique awards in the NFL. It differs from the MVP and is largely considered the highest individual honor outside of winning MVP. Rather than worrying about the value a player brings or his team’s success, the award is typically given to a player who dominated on the field but was perhaps overlooked as an MVP candidate for one reason or another.

Just as he has for most of the season, Derrick Henry is the current leader in the Offensive Player of the Year race. A move to a run-heavy Baltimore offense has only made him stronger. At age 30, Henry still looks like a player in his prime. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Henry is the current favorite, although he has plenty of competition.

It’s fair to call this a three-horse race at the moment. Both Saquon Barkley and Justin Jefferson are within striking distance of Henry, especially with more than half of the season left to play. There are also some sleepers who are still worth monitoring, including a couple of quarterbacks. With eight weeks played and 10 left in the 2024 NFL season, let’s look closely at the top Offensive Player of the Year contenders and share our pick on the best bet right now.

AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds in the table below to place your beys at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Favorites to Win AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Before making a bet on Offensive Player of the Year, it’s important to take a close look at some of the leading favorites and where they currently stand.

Derrick Henry - Running Back, Baltimore Ravens (+150) at FanDuel

Henry’s string of consecutive games with a touchdown ended in Week 7 while a stretch of five straight games with at least 90 rushing yards ended in Week 8. Nevertheless, his odds to be OPOTY only moved from +140 after Week 6 to +150 after Week 8. The only reason he was held to 73 yards against Cleveland in Week 8 is because the Ravens trailed for much of the game, limiting Henry to just 11 carries. The fact that Justice Hill is preferred in passing situations is the only flaw or shortcoming Henry has right now. Other than that, he’s been close to unstoppable for much of the year. As long as the Ravens can avoid falling behind in games, Henry will continue to be their workhorse and get enough touches to keep racking up big yards.

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Saquon Barkley - Running Back, Philadelphia Eagles (+360) at FanDuel

Similar to Henry, Barkley was held in check when he played the Browns a few weeks ago. However, he responded with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games. Surprisingly, he remains underutilized as a pass-catcher. However, Barkley’s exploits on the ground have been enough for a Philadelphia offense that’s starting to click. Over the last two weeks, he’s closed the gap on Henry, moving from +550 after Week 6 to +360 after Week 8. The problem is that he’s still nearly 200 yards behind Henry in rushing yards. If that gap remains that big, Barkley will have to make up for it in other ways if he hopes to catch Henry for OPOTY.

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Justin Jefferson - Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings (+650) at FanDuel

Despite his team losing back-to-back games, Jefferson has clearly stood out as the best receiver in the NFL thus far. He went for 115 receiving yards in Minnesota’s loss to the Rams, continuing a stretch of amassing at least 80 receiving yards, something he’s done in every game outside of Week 1. However, his Offensive Player of the Year odds have slipped a little, moving from +550 to +650 over the past two weeks. Being the best receiver isn’t going to be enough to win OPOTY. Jefferson will need to step up his game and do something spectacular if he’s going to overtake Henry. But with more than half the season left, he’s very much in the mix.

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Ja’Marr Chase - Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals (+1400) at FanDuel

After eight weeks, Chase leads the NFL in total receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. However, he had just one 100-yard receiving game in October and has been held below 60 yards in back-to-back weeks. Despite having a couple of spectacular games, Chase isn’t dominating week after week the way Jefferson is. Until he can show a little more week-to-week consistency, Chase will remain on the outskirts of the Offensive Player of the Year race.

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CeeDee Lamb - Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys (+1400) at FanDuel

Just when we were ready to write off Lamb completely, he came back with two excellent performances. In a losing effort against the 49ers, he collected 13 passes for 146 yards and two touchdowns. That one game helped boost his odds from +2200 two weeks ago to +1400. Without a lot of help around him, the Cowboys are going to keep forcing the ball to Lamb, giving him a lot of opportunities to make plays and put up the type of numbers that will give him a chance to win Offensive Player of the Year. Of course, it’ll help if the Cowboys can win some games and put themselves in the playoff race. Nevertheless, Lamb remains an intriguing sleeper for OPOTY and holds good value right now.

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Who Will Win 2024 Offensive Player of the Year

My Pick - Derrick Henry (+150) at FanDuel

There is a solid argument for Barkley, Jefferson, and Lamb right now. However, Henry still has a clear lead in the Offensive Player of the Year race. As mentioned, he’s leading the NFL in rushing with a nearly 200-yard cushion over Barkley. Don’t forget that he also leads the league in rushing touchdowns. At the moment, it doesn’t look like NFL defenses can consistently stop him. That will make it hard for Barkley, Jefferson, or Lamb to outshine Henry. Even if he doesn’t offer a ton of value, he’s still a safe pick to win Offensive Player of the Year.

Make sure you go to FanDuel to place your bet on Offensive Player of the Year. If you’re a new user, you can get $150 in bonus bets if you make a $5 bet on your first wager and that bet wins.

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Who Won the AP Offensive Player of the Year in 2023?

Christian McCaffrey won the 2023 AP Offensive Player of the Year award. Tyreek Hill finished second and CeeDee Lamb third with Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott rounding out the top-five. It was McCaffrey’s first time winning the award, and it was well deserved. He led the NFL in rushing yards, total yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns by scoring 14 rushing and seven receiving touchdowns during the regular season.

AP Offensive Player of the Year History

The first AP Offensive Player of the Year honor was awarded in 1972 to running back Larry Brown of the team now known as the Washington Commanders. 17 of the last 26 players to win the OPOTY have been non-quarterbacks, including the last four. 

The only positions to win the Offensive Player of the Year award are quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. That means no offensive linemen, fullbacks, or tight ends has ever won the award.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Before you can make a winning bet for Offensive Player of the Year, you must first find the best sportsbook. Many bettors forget this stop, which can be a mistake. Various online sportsbooks may have different odds, different promos, and different features, so you have to do your research. 

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How to Read NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Unless there is a heavy favorite, every Offensive Player of the Year candidate will have plus (+) odds listed next to their name. This means that you will profit more than you bet if your choice wins OPOTY. For instance, if you bet $100 on a player with +400 odds, the profit will be $400. In rare cases, a heavy favorite will have negative (-) odds. For example, if a player has -200 odds, you will have to bet $200 in order to make a profit of $100.