The NFL Coach of the Year Award is usually given to the head coach that got the most out of their roster and surprised the league.
Kevin Stefanski won the award in 2023 for the second time after leading the Browns to the playoffs with four different starting quarterbacks during the season.
The 2024 season began with Jim Harbaugh and Matt Eberflus as co-favorites for Coach of the Year honors.
The Coach of the Year race in 2024 is starting to look a lot like it did last season. This is because late in the year, Dan Campbell is the leading favorite. There were times last year when Campbell looked like a sure thing for the amazing job he’s done rebuilding the Lions, only for Kevin Stefasnki to steal the award by getting the Browns to the playoffs with a backup quarterback.
This year, Campbell has once again emerged as the frontrunner according to FanDuel, In a sense, Campbell still deserves some formal recognition for the incredible reclamation job he’s done in Detroit. At the same time, the Lions look like the best team in the NFL. Even with high expectations heading into the season, the Lions are better than advertised, and Campbell is a big reason for that success.
Of course, Campbell was in a similar position last season and somehow didn’t win Coach of the Year honors. With four weeks left in the season, the award doesn’t belong to Campbell just yet. There are still several coaches worth mentioning in this race who have a chance to steal Coach of the Year honors late in the season the way Stefanski did in 2023. Therefore, we wanted to offer a breakdown of the leading contenders for Coach of the Year and offer our best bet for the award.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head over to FanDuel and place your bets: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.
Coach | Team | Odds |
---|---|---|
Dan Campbell | Detroit Lions | -140 BET HERE |
Kevin O’Connell | Minnesota Vikings | +340 BET HERE |
Mike Tomlin | Pittsburgh Steelers | +650 BET HERE |
Sean Payton | Denver Broncos | +1800 BET HERE |
Dan Quinn | Washington Commanders | +1800 BET HERE |
Mike Macdonald | Seattle Seahawks | +2000 BET HERE |
Andy Reid | Kansas City Chiefs | +2500 BET HERE |
Jim Harbaugh | Los Angeles Chargers | +3000 BET HERE |
Todd Bowles | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +5000 BET HERE |
Nick Siriani | Philadelphia Eagles | +5000 BET HERE |
Coach of the Year in the NFL is one of the more unusual awards in the league. It’s rarely given to the best coach, as evidenced by Bill Belichick only winning it three times in his distinguished career and Mike Tomlin never winning the award despite his sustained success in Pittsburgh, including an NFL record 17 straight non-losing seasons.
Rather than giving the coach of the best team the award, Coach of the Year typically goes to the coach of the team that exceeded expectations the most. Make sure you check back regularly as we update the odds of each contender and give our pick for who will win the award.
As long as Campbell continues to guide what most would agree is the best team in the NFL, he’s going to be tough to beat out for Coach of the Year. Over the past two weeks, the Lions have extended their winning streak to 11 games while Campbell’s odds have moved from +175 to -140. With games left against the Bills, 49ers, and Vikings, it’s far from a sure thing that the Lions will finish 16-1. But even a 15-2 record would be more than enough to ensure Campbell wins Coach of the Year, in part because there hasn’t been a better coach in the NFL over the past three seasons.
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The Vikings are keeping the pressure on the Lions much like O’Connell is on Campbell’s heels for Coach of the Year honors. With six straight wins, Minnesota is now 11-2, which would have been impossible to fathom before the season. In any other year, O’Connell would be running away with this award. But it’s hard to appreciate everything the Vikings have done with what the Lions are doing in the same division. Right now, O’Connell’s best path to winning Coach of the Year is to force the Week 18 game between the Lions and Vikings to decide the division and then beat Campbell and Detroit in that game. While such a scenario is possible, it’s still a tall order.
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Based on the odds, Tomlin has a lot of work to do if he wants to overtake Campbell for Coach of the Year. As much as Campbell deserves the award for what he’s done over the past few seasons, Tomlin is just as deserving based on his entire body of work as a head coach. With the Steelers winning seven of their last eight games and holding a two-game lead in the AFC North, Tomlin’s efforts this season alone are enough to make him a serious Coach of the Year candidate. The Steelers are set to play the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals down the stretch. If Pittsburgh can win all four of those games and finish 14-3, possibly overtaking Kansas City and Buffalo as the top seed in the AFC standing, Tomlin would be just as deserving as any other Coach of the Year candidate. But again, that’s asking a lot.
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The bye week was not kind to Payton’s Coach of the Year chances. After Week 12, he was in good shape with +600 odds. But coming out of Week 14, Payton has +1800 odds and looks more like a sleeper than a serious contender. However, the job he’s done in Denver is nothing short of impressive. The Broncos have won three in a row to get to 8-5 and could be just two wins away from securing a playoff spot. However, the Broncos might need to sweep their final four games, including games with the Chargers and Chiefs, to give Payton a chance at winning Coach of the Year.
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Quinn managed to save his Coach of the Year chances when the Commanders beat the Titans in Week 13 and avoided a four-game losing streak. However, Washington is still three games back in the NFC East with four games left. Given the stiff competition for Coach of the Year, nothing short of a division title will make Quinn Coach of the Year in 2024. The odds of that happening are slim, although there’s no denying that he’s done a fantastic job this season with the Commanders poised to go to the playoffs with a rookie quarterback.
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Macdonald has seen his Coach of the Year stock ebb and flow a lot this year. But with four straight wins to put the Seahawks on top of the NFC West, he’s back in the conversation. Obviously, a division title would be a prerequisite for Macdonald having any semblance of a chance to be Coach of the Year. The fact that Seattle has just two wins over teams that currently have a winning record hurts him too. But with the Packers, Vikings, and Rams left on Seattle’s schedule, the Seahawks have a chance to prove themselves and make Macdonald a serious contender if they can win their remaining games.
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The Chiefs keep finding ways to win close games and have just one loss on the season. That means Reid is still hanging around in the Coach of the Year conversation. To be clear, Kansas City is the least impressive 12-1 the NFL has ever seen. But if the Chiefs find a way to finish 16-1, Reid will need to be considered a serious candidate for Coach of the Year, at least depending on what happens with the other top candidates. Of course, the Chiefs play three of their last four games on the road, including games against the Steelers and Broncos, so winning all four of those games will not be easy by any stretch.
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As one of the co-favorites for Coach of the Year before the season started, it’s surprising to see Harbaugh this far down on the pecking order. At 8-5, the Chargers have at least matched expectations and have arguably been a little better than expected. If nothing else, Harbaugh has Los Angeles on a clear path to the playoffs, which is no small feat for a team that went 5-12 last season and has been to the playoffs just once in the last five years. But with two losses to the Chiefs, as well as losses to the Steelers and Ravens, Harbaugh and the Chargers have failed to capitalize on opportunities to win big games, which will ultimately prevent Harbaugh from being a serious Coach of the Year contender.
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We were on Campbell after Week 10 when he had +500 odds. We stuck with him two weeks ago at +175, and we’re not going to abandon him as our pick now. Of course, there are a few candidates who can make a compelling case if their teams finish the season with three or four wins over the final four weeks of the season. But the Lions have been so dominant that it would take multiple Detroit losses combined with a 4-0 record from another coach during the final month of the season to make this much of an argument. Even if his value is a little down, Campbell is still the right pick for Coach of the Year heading into Week 15.
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In 2023, Kevin Stefanski won Coach of the Year. It was his second time winning Coach of the Year honors in his four seasons with the Cleveland Browns. Stefanski led the Browns to an 11-6 record and a spot in the playoffs despite losing star running back Nick Chubb to injury early in the season and later losing starting quarterback Deshaun Watson to an injury as well. Ultimately, Cleveland used four different starting quarterbacks with Stefanski taking the Browns to the playoffs after signing aging quarterback Joe Flacco off the street. That level of difficulty is what impressed voters enough to select Stefanski over several other worthy candidates.
The AP NFL Coach of the Year award has been given out every season since 1957. George Wilson of the Detroit Lions was the inaugural winner that season. To date, 15 coaches who have won the award were later inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Coach of the Year Winner | Year |
---|---|
Kevin Stefanski | 2023 |
Brian Daboll | 2022 |
Mike Vrabel | 2021 |
Kevin Stefanski | 2020 |
John Harbaugh | 2019 |
Matt Nagy | 2018 |
Sean McVay | 2017 |
Jason Garrett | 2016 |
Ron Rivera | 2015 |
Bruce Arians | 2014 |
Ron Rivera | 2013 |
Bruce Arians | 2012 |
Jim Harbaugh | 2011 |
Bill Belichick | 2010 |
Marvin Lewis | 2009 |
Unless there is a heavy favorite, each candidate for Coach of the Year will have plus (+) odds. This means that your profit will be more than you bet. For instance, if you bet $100 on a coach with +300 odds, the profit will be $300. In rare cases, a heavy favorite will have negative (-) odds. For example, if one candidate has -150 odds, you will have to bet $150 in order to make a profit of $100.
Often overlooked when it comes to betting on NFL Coach of the Year is choosing the best sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often have different odds, different promos, and different features. It’s usually best to shop around at different sportsbooks before making your choice.
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