Minnesota dropped down to the fifth seed after losing to the Detroit Lions in week 18
Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White did not receive a single carry or target last Sunday
The Los Angeles Rams defense ranks below league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate
After losing to the Detroit Lions in week 18, the Minnesota Vikings have dropped down to the fifth overall seed in the NFC standings and have to hit the road to play the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. Fortunately for Minnesota, their offense will have the opportunity to bounce back after an underwhelming performance against Detroit as the Rams defense enters the playoffs ranked well below league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
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Since signing Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson has been more passive in his efforts of running in for a touchdown when the Ravens offense are in scoring position. Against Pittsburgh, the Ravens may rely on Jackson’s legs as the Steelers front line ranks fourth overall in Def Adjusted Line Yards. To help counter their stacked box, expect Lamar to be used in designed runs to get to the outside. Lamar may also run one in during a pass play should a rushing lane open up when the Steelers are scrambled in coverage.
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Even though the Denver Broncos are listed as sizable underdogs against Buffalo, they still have the opportunity to get into scoring position by taking advantage of the Bills regressing secondary. Heading into the playoffs, the Bills back end has dipped down to 19th overall in Def Pass EPA and 24th in Def Pass Success Rate. When in the red zone, expect Bo Nix to continue to look at Courtland Sutton as the Broncos receiver comfortably leads the team in red zone targets while hauling in more than half of them.
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With Rachaad White not getting a single carry in week 18, it’s expected Bucky Irving will continue to receive three down back duties heading into the playoffs. That bodes well for his chances of scoring, especially when he faces off against a Washington Commanders front seven who ranks near the bottom of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Irving can also be used as a pass catcher to counter the Commanders heavy use of the blitz by bouncing him out to the flats.
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On the other side of the field, the Washington Commanders offense may revert to a heavier dose of the pass as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary have struggled in coverage this season. As of writing, the Bucs back end ranks 19th overall in Def Pass EPA, 23rd in DVOA, and 27th in Success Rate. With Terry McLaurin commanding defensive attention, Zach Ertz has excelled at exploiting the gaps in coverage to help give Jayden Daniels a reliable target to throw to when in the red zone.
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After being held to just three receptions and zero touchdowns against the Detroit Lions, Justin Jefferson will have the opportunity to round back into form against a far inferior defense. Defending against the pass has been a struggle for the Rams secondary this season as their back end enters the contest ranked near dead last in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Expect a bounce back performance from the star wide receiver as he routinely creates separation from the Rams lackluster coverage.
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Justin Jefferson is not the only Viking in a favorable position to score as Aaron Jones has the opportunity to gash a Rams front seven who ranks 20th in Def Rush EPA, 20th in Success Rate, 21st in DVOA, and 24th in Adjusted Line Yards. With the Rams anchoring their linebackers in coverage at a high rate, Jones will face less resistance in the trenches to help churn out extra yards near the goal line.
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