Josh Allen suffered an injury to his throwing hand in last week’s contest against New England
Cade Otton leads all Tampa Bay pass catchers in red zone targets
The Arizona Cardinals defense ranks well below league average in Def Pass Success Rate and EPA
With a one game lead over the Seattle Seahawks, the Los Angeles Rams are just one win away from locking up the NFC West division title and securing a spot in the playoffs. Against Arizona, their offense will have the opportunity to generate drives down the field and into scoring territory at a consistent rate as they face off against a Cardinals defense who ranks near dead last in Def Rush and Pass Success Rate.
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Kicking things off with Thursday night’s primetime matchup between Seattle and Chicago, D’Andre Swift will have the opportunity to churn out sizable gains at a time with each carry against the Seahawks lackluster front seven. Stopping the run has been an issue for the Seahawks defense this season as they enter the contest ranked below league average in Def Rush Success Rate and Adjusted Line Yards. Expect Swift to receive an uptick in carries, increasing the chances of him scoring as well.
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Should James Conner be able to play after suffering an injury in last week’s contest against the Minnesota Vikings, then he will have a great opportunity to find the end zone as the Los Angeles Rams defense struggles at all three levels of the field. Especially in regard to stopping the run as the Rams front seven resides in the bottom half of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Conner is also used in the pass game, giving him another avenue to help cash this prop.
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Like the Rams, Arizona’s defense has also severely underwhelmed in their efforts of limiting opposing offensive production as the Cardinals enter the contest ranked well below league average in Def Pass Success Rate and EPA. Their secondary will be stretched thin while trying to defend against the Rams star receiver Cooper Kupp, opening up gaps in coverage for Puka Nacua to exploit.
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With Josh Allen dealing with an injury to his throwing hand, the Buffalo Bills may revert to a heavier dose of the run to the benefit of their three down back James Cook. Not only does this allow the Bills to preserve their MVP front runners health, but it also allows their running back to exploit the New York Jets front seven who has struggled to stop the run. As of writing, the Jets defense ranks 23rd or worse in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
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With Atlanta possessing the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, the Bucs need to win out in order to remain in contention for the NFC South division title. Luckily for the Bucs, their offense will have the opportunity to generate plenty of trips to the red zone against the lowly Carolina Panthers defense. When in scoring position, expect their tight end Cade Otton to continue to see plenty of red zone targets as he faces off against a Panthers secondary who ranks near dead last in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
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After being held to just 24 rushing yards on 10 carries against the Philadelphia Eagles defense, the Washington Commanders Brian Robinson Jr will have a great opportunity to bounce back against a far weaker front seven. Heading into Sunday, the Falcons defense ranks well below league average in Def Rush DVOA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. With their secondary grading out well in Def Pass Success Rate, expect an uptick in rush attempts for Robinson to help combat against their coverage.
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