Isaac Guerendo scored two rushing touchdowns against the Chicago Bears last weekend
Josh Allen’s odds to win the NFL MVP award have astronomically grown
The Jacksonville Jaguars secondary ranks near dead last in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate
With reigning Offensive Player of the Year winner Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out with an injury, Isaac Guerendo capitalized on his first true start with the San Francisco 49ers by scoring two rushing touchdowns against the Chicago Bears. Guerendo was not the only player to find the back of the end zone on multiple occasions last weekend as the Buffalo Bills Josh Allen has strengthened his case for the MVP award by running in for three scores of his own to go along with his three passing touchdowns.
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With expectations pointing towards Isaac Guerendo being able to suit up for Thursday’s contest against the Los Angeles Rams, the 49ers running back will have the opportunity to put together another dominant performance against a weak front seven. As of writing, the Rams' front seven ranks in the bottom half of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Should Guerendo sit out, then look to place a wager on his back up Patrick Taylor Jr as he will take over as their three down back.
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Like the Rams, the New Orleans Saints have also been abysmal in their efforts of stopping the run. Heading into Sunday, the Saints' defense ranks 30th or worse in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. That puts Washington’s dual-threat running back Brian Robinson Jr in a position to thrive as he gashes the Saints' anemic front seven for sizable gains at a time. Especially with their outside linebackers forced to spy Jayden Daniels, leaving them prone to getting beat up the gut.
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In NFC North divisional match against the Chicago Bears, the Minnesota Vikings Aaron Jones may find himself as the focal point of their offense when in the red zone. While the Bears struggle to play at a competitive level in most areas of the field, their secondary has excelled in coverage as they rank top-10 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. That may lead to an uptick in carries for Jones as it also allows the Vikings to avoid the variance that comes with throwing into heavy coverage.
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Even though Detroit’s defense is expected to get some of their key players back from injury, the Buffalo Bills Josh Allen will still have the opportunity to run wild as the Lions have struggled with getting to the quarterback. Even after trading for Za’Darius Smith, the Lions' front seven still ranks well below league average in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. Even with a high Blitz and Pressure Rate, their defense has been prone to getting beat by scrambling quarterbacks.
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While Ladd McConkey’s is still listed as questionable heading into Sunday’s contest against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Los Angeles Chargers star rookie wide receiver will have a favorable opportunity to score should he be able to suit up. The Bucs' defensive scheme leaves their corners on islands as they blitz at one of the higher rates in the league, giving McConkey more room to work with in his efforts of creating space from a unit who ranks dead last in Def Pass Success Rate.
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It’s been a nightmare year for the New York Jets offense as it was expected a healthy Aaron Rodgers would lead them to the playoffs. While their offense has sputtered for a majority of the season, Aaron Rodgers and company should face minimal resistance in their efforts of airing out the ball against a Jacksonville Jaguars secondary who ranks 30th or worse in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. To pair along with Garrett Wilson, make a wager on Davante Adams to score as well.
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