Josh Allen is the current betting favorite to win the NFL MVP award
Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid are both expected to make their return from injury
The Los Angeles Rams defense ranks below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate
With Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid expected to make their return from injury, the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen will have the opportunity to strengthen his case for the NFL MVP award as he picks apart the Los Angeles Rams' gaps in coverage. Kincaid is not the only tight end who is in a great position to score a touchdown this Sunday as Cade Otton and TJ Hockenson both get the benefit of facing off against a pair of defenses who struggle in coverage.
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At 6' 4”, Keon Coleman has been a big body target for Josh Allen to throw to when in scoring territory. While his status for this Sunday’s contest against the Los Angeles Rams is unconfirmed as of writing, he will find himself in a favorable position to score a touchdown should he be able to give it a go. Defending against the pass has been a struggle for the Rams' defense this season as their secondary currently ranks in the bottom half of the board in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
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Like Coleman, the Bills tight end is also expected to make his return from injury and will get the benefit of picking apart the Rams gaps in coverage. When healthy, Kincaid has seen a healthy amount of red zone targets and should pick up right where he left off against the weak Rams secondary. This prop is also a reminder to line shop as Kincaid’s odds to score a touchdown can be found as high as +275 at BetMGM and as low as +210 at FanDuel. That is a difference of $65 in profit for a $100 bettor.
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Since making his return from injury, the Minnesota Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson has been a reliable red zone target for Sam Darnold to throw to when in scoring territory. Especially with star wide receiver Justin Jefferson commanding defensive attention, giving Hockenson single coverage opportunities for him to exploit. With Darnold expected to play in a clean pocket against the worst pass rush in the league, Hockenson will also have extra time in the open field to create separation from the Falcons coverage.
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Since getting the starting nod after Devin Singletary went down with an injury, the New York Giants Tyrone Tracy Jr has established himself as a reliable three-down back by averaging five yards per carry. Heading into Sunday, Tracy will continue to be the focal point of the Giants offense as he faces off against a New Orleans Saints front seven who ranks 32nd in Def Rush DVOA, 31st in Def Rush Success Rate, 30th in Def Rush EPA, and 31st in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
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Turning our attention back towards tight ends, Cade Otton has been a red zone monster for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense when inside the 20 as he leads the team with 15 total targets. Like Hockenson, Otton also gets the benefit of his star receiver Mike Evans commanding defensive attention which opens up wider gaps in coverage for the tight end to exploit.
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Rounding out week 14’s slate of touchdown scorer props, we target the Seattle Seahawks Kenneth Walker as he faces off against an Arizona Cardinals defensive line who struggles to contain opposing running backs in the trenches as their low mark in Def Rush Success Rate indicates. While Zach Charbonnet has vultured his rush attempts, Walker is still heavily used in the pass when inside the 20 as he currently has the second most targets on the team.
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