Jalen Hurts averaged 10 yards per carry against the Los Angeles Rams
Jayden Daniels nearly leads the Washington Commanders in red zone carries
The Commanders defense rank well below league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate
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Even while dealing with an injury, that did not stop Jalen Hurts in his efforts of gashing the Los Angeles Rams defense as he finished the contest with 70 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown while averaging 10 yards per carry. Against their NFC East division rivals, Hurts and the Philadelphia offense should face minimal resistance in their efforts of getting into scoring territory as they face off against a Washington Commanders defense who rank well below league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
In the AFC Conference Championship, Travis Kelce will have the opportunity to put together another dominant performance by constantly picking apart the Buffalo Bills' gaps in coverage. The Bills have struggled to defend against the pass this season as they currently rank below league average in Def Pass EPA and Success Rate. Factor in their low mark in Def Adjusted Sack Rate, and Kelce will have extra time in the open field to create separation and give Mahomes a high-quality passing lane for him to throw to.
With the Washington Commanders' defense struggling to play at a competitive level, the Philadelphia Eagles will have the opportunity to consistently generate drives down the field to get into scoring territory. This will lead to an uptick in red zone carries for their skill players, increasing the likelihood of Jalen Hurts scoring as they near the goal line. Hurts is also a threat to score in scrambling situations should the Commanders' linebackers sell out in coverage in an attempt to mask their poor mark in Success Rate.
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After being held to just two receptions in last weekend’s contest against the Rams, AJ Brown is in a great position to bounce back as he faces off against a Commanders secondary who ranks 20th in Def Pass DVOA and 22nd in Def Pass EPA. Especially if the second level of their defense is forced to stack the box, opening up higher-quality passing lanes for Brown to exploit. With DeVonta Smith matching his red zone usage, wager half a unit on each receiver to score.
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On the other side of the field, Jayden Daniels may use his legs at a more consistent rate to help combat against the Eagles' elite coverage. Especially with his own offensive line grading out poorly in Pass Block, potentially leading to an uptick in rush attempts while scrambling away from the Eagles' interior pressure. When in the shortened field, expect Daniels to continue to be used in designed runs in an attempt to shift the Eagles linebackers and create a rushing lane for him to exploit.
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After an underwhelming regular season campaign per his standards, Travis Kelce came alive in the Kansas City Chiefs' first game of the playoffs as he finished the contest hauling in 7 receptions for 117 yards and 1 touchdown. Against Buffalo, Kelce will have the opportunity to put together another dominant outing as the Bills secondary has regressed over the past few weeks of play. Heading into the AFC Conference Championship, the Bills' back end ranks 19th in Def Pass EPA and 24th in Success Rate.
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Speaking of regression, the Chiefs' secondary have also regressed throughout the year as they head into Sunday ranked 17th overall in Def Pass DVOA and Success Rate. That bodes well for the Bills rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman who can use his massive frame to take advantage of any single coverage he may receive while the Chiefs linebackers stack the box. To pair along with Coleman, sprinkle a wager on Dalton Kincaid as the Bills' tight end also possesses a heavy usage rate when inside the red zone.
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