AFC South Odds, Predictions, Best Picks 2024: Texans and Colts Stumble Toward Finish Line

• The Texans have lost three of their last five games

• The Colts final four games are against the Broncos, Titans, Giants, and Jags

• Houston hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 5

The AFC South race is now down to two teams: The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts. The Texans own the tiebreaker and a two-game lead, but they have been bad over the last couple of months. The Colts haven’t been any better, but an easy remaining schedule makes this race far from over.

Below, we will share how we view all four AFC South teams and our pick to win. We’ll be using odds taken from Caesars Sportsbook, which currently offers new bettors a Bet $1, Double Your Winnings Your Next 10 Bets offer when they sign up using promo code WSNDYW. 

Take a look at our podcast, Ride the Line, and explore Grant and Tanner's predictions for AFC South. Also, check out our rankings of the best football betting sites.

AFC South Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below and claim: Bet $1, Double Your Winnings Your Next 10 Bets.

AFC South Predictions and Favorites to Win

Houston Texans (-10000) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Texans had their bye in Week 14 as they prepared for a brutal final stretch of the season. The team will close out the season with games against the Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens, and Titans. While their two-game lead in the division gives them a nice cushion heading into the final stretch, Houston’s recent play shows this race is far from over.

Houston will need to find a way to win without linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. He was suspended for three games after a brutal hit against Trevor Lawrence. The Texans’ defense is why this team still has a lead in the division, helping to cover for inconsistent offense. If the unit struggles without Al-Shaair, it could lead to an ugly finish to the season.

We haven’t been genuinely impressed by this team for some time now. The Texans haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 5 and barely held on for three-point victories against the Jags and Colts. Losses to the Titans and Jets during that stretch show that this team has some significant holes, making this division race far from over.

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Indianapolis Colts (+900) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Colts are the only team remaining on the board for the AFC South winner. The bad news is that the team has lost four of their previous six games, with both wins coming by just one point. The good news is that the team is coming off a bye to close the season against the Broncos, Titans, Giants, and Jaguars.

If the Colts want to overtake the Texans for the division title, they’ll need to improve on defense. The unit allows the fourth-most yards per game, thanks partly to their struggles on third down. The Colts have the fourth-highest conversion percentage in the league, allowing opponents to extend drives with ease. If the defense can’t fix that, there is no chance they will catch the Texans.

This division will likely be decided in Week 15 as the Colts head to Denver. The Broncos are a playoff team in the AFC, but their rookie quarterback struggles with accuracy. If Indy can exploit that and get a win, they will be set up for a Cinderella run to an AFC South title.

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Tennessee Titans (OFF) at Caesars Sportsbook

After a stunning win against the Texans, the Titans’ offense has gone MIA. They scored 32 points against Houston but managed a combined 25 points against Washington and Jacksonville. That has damaged the teams’ hopes for the future, especially surrounding quarterback Will Levis.

While Tennessee has just three wins, there are some positive takeaways from this season. For starters, they allowed the second-fewest yards per game (291.8) and ranked in the top ten on third down (35.6%). The team also had an effective run game with Tony Pollard, which thrived despite the struggles of the pass.

Will Levis will be the biggest question heading into the offseason. The team hoped they had found the future of their franchise, but he has been disappointing this season. We expect the team to give the young quarterback another shot next season, but we are not surprised if their top pick of the NFL draft is a quarterback.

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Jacksonville Jaguars (OFF) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Jaguars season has been over for some time, and now they will be without Trevor Lawrence for the remainder of the season. The quarterback briefly returned in Week 13 but exited after taking a vicious hit against the Texans. That means Mac Jones will finish the season at quarterback, meaning the team’s ugly Week 14 win against the Titans will likely be their last.

As bad as this season was, the team seems to have found a star in receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The rookie has been incredible this season, posting 851 yards and six touchdowns despite the team’s issues at quarterback. If Lawrence can heal and improve in the offseason, it could lead to the Jacksonville offense being vastly improved in 2025.

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Who Will Win the AFC South - My Pick

Indianapolis Colts (+900) at Caesars Sportsbook

As we said last week, we want no part of the Texans at their current price. Even with Nico Collins back on the field, the team has been a mess. Their remaining schedule will be challenging, and their recent play suggests they aren’t up for it.

The Colts aren’t a very good team, but they have enough to win their four remaining games. If they can beat the Broncos on Sunday, you can bet that the price will change dramatically. This is definitely a longshot bet, but the stage is set for a Colts’ division title.

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Previous AFC South Winners

How to Read Future NFL Odds

NFL futures odds work the same as any other bet. Each bet includes a number following the team or player, preceded by a plus or minus sign. 

A plus sign before the number usually indicates an underdog, which is common with futures bets. If the odds next to a team or player have a plus sign, that is the amount that you will win for every $100 you bet.

A minus sign usually indicates the favorite to win, though they are rarely seen for future bets. A minus sign in front of the odds means that is how much you need to bet to win $100.

For example, you bet $100 on the Texans +100 to win the AFC South. If they win the division, you will win $100 

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the AFC South

Are you ready to start betting on the AFC South but unsure where to start? If so, we have you covered with our sportsbook reviews. Below is a comparison between some of the industry’s best NFL betting sites.

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