Best AFC Championship Prop Bets: Kansas City Owns Buffalo

• The Chiefs are (-125) on the moneyline against the Bills

• Josh Allen looks to capture his first win against Mahomes in the postseason

• Travis Kelce continues to dominate the postseason

The Chiefs will host the Bills for the fourth time in five years in the playoffs. The winner is headed to the Super Bowl, and based on history, Mahomes has the edge. 

We have targeted three player props that hold much value on Sunday. Khalil Shakir is one of these players, as he dominated the Chiefs in the first matchup this season.

We also expect DeAndre Hopkins and Kareem Hunt to perform well.

Khalil Shakir Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at FanDuel

Shakir has been Allen’s favorite target this season, and we expect Buffalo to lean on him this week. Shakir is averaging 55.8 receiving yards per game, but the stakes are much higher against the Chiefs. 

Shakir has 76 receptions for 821 yards with four touchdowns in 2024. In the previous matchup against Kansas City, Shakir had eight catches for 70 yards.

With defenses always focused on Buffalo’s rushing attack, Shakir always finds a way to get open for Allen. He has posted an impressive campaign this season and looks to be the Bills' number-one target going forward. 

Kansas City ranks 19th in the NFL against the pass, which is a good sign for the Bills passing game. On the flip side, the Chiefs have the eighth-best rush defense, so there is no question that Buffalo will focus on the passing attack this week. 

We expect Shakir to make a few big plays to go over his receiving yard prop against Kansas City.

DeAndre Hopkins Over 2.5 Receptions (+120) at FanDuel 

Kansas City hasn’t focused on getting their wideouts much attention as of recently, but this line holds excellent value for a player like DeAndre Hopkins. 

Hopkins presents a mismatch for any defense but hasn’t gotten much volume. In a game where the Chiefs will have to throw the ball, we trust Hopkins to record at least three receptions. 

Kelce has gotten the most attention for the Kansas City offense, but sooner rather than later, the Chiefs will look for other options. Hopkins is the next best option, and he will excel in this matchup against Buffalo. 

Hopkins averages 3.3 receptions per game, and we are getting 2.5 at plus money. We expect Hopkins to take advantage of this playoff game and surpass this reception prop.

Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown (+190) at FanDuel

With Isiah Pacheco returning to play, many thought Hunt’s volume would decrease, but that isn’t the case. Hunt is still getting most of the red zone touches, and this is the best price we will get for him to score a touchdown. 

Hunt has been a touchdown machine since he signed with the Chiefs mid-season. He has 728 rushing yards on 200 carries with seven touchdowns on the ground. Hunt has scored in three straight games and is getting hot at the right time. 

Pacheco still looks like he isn’t fully healthy, which is an excellent sign for Hunt bettors this week. His anytime touchdown market has never gotten this low, and we are taking advantage of this price. 

Look for the Chiefs to give Hunt the ball in the red zone and for him to capitalize on these opportunities to cash this player prop.