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AFC Championship Odds, Favorites to Win, Best Bets 2024/25: Josh Allen and the Bills Take Down the Chiefs

Contributors
Updated November 20, 2024
13 min read
  • The Chiefs odds shifted from +185 to +220 to win the AFC

  • The Bills are now +290 after taking down the Chiefs in Week 11

  • Josh Allen is the new MVP favorite at +125

The Buffalo Bills defeated the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Josh Allen's great game helped the team win, making him the frontrunner for MVP. 

Allen is currently +125 to win the award on FanDuel Sportsbook, with Lamar Jackson in second at +200. The AFC is loaded with talented quarterbacks, so Allen’s win over Patrick Mahomes should give the team confidence heading into the ladder portion of the season. 

Allen is 4-1 over Mahomes in the regular season but 0-3 in the postseason. The Bills are still in line to earn the one seed, but we hesitate because Kansas City runs the league. 

The Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens have separated themselves from the pack in the AFC. Despite this, the odds between these three teams are rapidly changing. Here, we will analyze the movement and predict the conference winner.

AFC Championship Odds

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds below and head to FanDuel to place your bets: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

TeamOdds
Kansas City Chiefs+220
BET HERE
Buffalo Bills+290
BET HERE
Baltimore Ravens+400
BET HERE
Houston Texans+900
BET HERE
Pittsburgh Steelers+950
BET HERE
Los Angeles Chargers+1300
BET HERE
Denver Broncos +3300
BET HERE
Miami Dolphins+4000
BET HERE
Cincinnati Bengals+4800
BET HERE
Indianapolis Colts +5000
BET HERE
New York Jets+45000
BET HERE
Tennessee Titans +85000
BET HERE
New England Patriots +100000
BET HERE
Cleveland Browns+100000
BET HERE
Las Vegas Raiders +100000
BET HERE
Jacksonville Jaguars+100000
BET HERE

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Afc Championship Predictions

AFC Championship Predictions - AFC Favorites

Kansas City Chiefs (+220) at FanDuel

The Chiefs lost to the Bills, but they still run the AFC. Kansas City has one loss this season, and it came on the road as an underdog to a talented Bills team. 

The Chiefs didn’t make the needed plays on offense or defense to win this game, but the losing margin doesn’t represent how tight the contest was for four quarters. Allen had a breakaway run on fourth down in the final minutes, which lengthened the Bills lead. 

If Allen had been stopped on the fourth down, Mahomes would have been in a prime position to drive the field and win the game. The Chiefs are now +220 to win the AFC, up from +185 before the loss. 

The Chiefs needed to be better to win, but they played one of their worst games possible and were still in a spot to win. Mahomes was 22 of 33 for 196 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. 

His first interception occurred on the Chiefs opening drive, which set up a touchdown for the Bills. His second pick came at the end of the game when Kansas City was facing a two-score deficit. 

The Chiefs didn’t throw or run the ball well. They had 17 carries for 78 yards on the ground, with Kareem Hunt being the only producer. Defensively, they surrendered 262 yards through the air and 104 on the ground. 

Even though Kansas City won, the stats don’t matter. The Chiefs know how to win in the playoffs, making their odds dip a perfect time to buy. The Bills are 0-3 against the Chiefs with Allen at quarterback in playoff games, so we trust the Chiefs when the pressure increases.

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Buffalo Bills (+290) at FanDuel

The Bills played a perfect game against the Chiefs on Sunday. They tamed Mahomes with a ruthless pass rush and scored in high-leverage situations on offense. 

Buffalo started the game by taking advantage of a Mahomes interception. Buffalo took over at their 35-yard line and drove 65 yards to the house. 

The drive ended with a James Cook touchdown, his first of two throughout the game. Cook only had nine carries for 20 yards, but he was effective when he needed to score. 

Allen was the player who shined for the Bills. The quarterback was 27 of 40 for 262 yards with one passing touchdown and one interception. 

He also carried the ball 12 times for 55 yards with one touchdown. His touchdown run was the dagger for the Chiefs, as this score put Kansas City down by nine points following the Tyler Bass PAT. 

While this was a significant win for the Bills, we still have our fears regarding this team. They haven’t been able to finish in the postseason against the Chiefs. 

Kansas City is 3-0 against Buffalo in the playoffs but 1-4 in the regular season. The Bills don’t have a problem beating the Chiefs, but they have an issue beating Kansas City when it counts. 

Buffalo’s best chance of winning the AFC is to claim the one seed. This will require them to have an equal or better record than the Chiefs. 

Buffalo’s remaining schedule is relatively demanding, so winning out may be off the table. Next week, they have the 49ers, who are desperate for a win to be in playoff contention. They also face the Rams and Lions, two of the best teams in the NFC.

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Baltimore Ravens (+400) at FanDuel

The Ravens looked like the strongest team in the AFC, but many people have paused their coverage of Baltimore after losing to the Steelers in Week 11. The Ravens lost 18-16 but never had any control of the game. 

Baltimore dominated every opponent in their path, but Pittsburgh ended this streak. However, as bad as Baltimore played, they were a two-point conversion away from taking the game to overtime. 

The most concerning part about the game was Lamar Jackson’s play. Jackson was the MVP leader at +180 on FanDuel Sportsbook, but Allen overtook him following Week 11. 

Jackson was horrendous throughout the game, going 16 of 33 for 207 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also carried the ball four times for 46 yards. 

Jackson is second in passing yards, touchdowns, and quarterback rating, so he didn’t post a typical stat line against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the AFC, and they should be in line to make a playoff run, but Baltimore is a more talented team. 

However, they must play well against physical defenses to have a chance at a championship in 2024. With four losses, it’s doubtful the Ravens have a chance at the top seed in the AFC. 

Baltimore also lost their lead in the AFC North after losing to the Steelers. Therefore, Baltimore could enter the playoffs without a home game on the calendar. 

The Ravens' relatively demanding schedule includes big matchups against the Chargers, Eagles, Steelers, and Texans before the end of the year. 

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AFC Championship - My Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (+220) at FanDuel

The Kansas City Chiefs are still the authority in the AFC. One loss doesn’t change that the Chiefs have beaten everyone else on their schedule and have the best quarterback in the NFL. 

The odds are stacked against the Chiefs, but if any team can win three in a row, it’s Andy Reid’s squad. Take advantage of the lengthened odds following the team’s loss last week. 

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Who Won the AFC Championship in 2023/24?

The Chiefs won the AFC Championship Game in 2023, defeating the Ravens 27-20. Kansas City’s defense was fantastic throughout the entire game. 

Lamar Jackson won the MVP in 2023-24, and Kansas City’s defense made him look silly. Jackson turned the ball over multiple times and was held to 54 yards rushing. Considering he was the Ravens' leading rusher, this limited result was a massive success for Kansas City. 

Travis Kelce delivered for the Chiefs on offense, catching 11 passes for 116 yards with one touchdown. This marked the second straight AFC Championship victory for Kansas City and their sixth consecutive year in the title game. 

AFC Championship Winner History

The NFC and AFC were formed in 1970 when the NFL merged with the American Football League (AFL), splitting the league into two distinct conferences. The Baltimore Colts (now the Indianapolis Colts) defeated the Oakland Raiders (Las Vegas Raiders) 27-17 in the first AFC Championship Game.

The winner of the AFC Championship Game earns a bid in the Super Bowl against the NFC champion and also takes home the Lamar Hunt trophy, named after the founder of the AFL.

History of Past AFC Champions

YearChampion
2023Kansas City Chiefs
2022Kansas City Chiefs
2021Cincinnati Bengals
2020Kansas City Chiefs
2019Kansas City Chiefs
2018New England Patriots
2017New England Patriots
2016New England Patriots
2015Denver Broncos
2014New England Patriots
2013Denver Broncos
2012Baltimore Ravens
2011New England Patriots
2010Pittsburgh Steelers
2009Indianapolis Colts
2008Pittsburgh Steelers
2007New England Patriots
2006Indianapolis Colts
2005Pittsburgh Steelers
2004New England Patriots
2003New England Patriots
2002Oakland Raiders
2001New England Patriots
2000Baltimore Ravens
1999Tennessee Titans
1998Denver Broncos
1997Denver Broncos
1996New England Patriots
1995Pittsburgh Steelers
1994San Diego Chargers
1993Buffalo Bills
1992Buffalo Bills
1991Buffalo Bills
1990Buffalo Bills
1989Denver Broncos
1988Cincinnati Bengals
1987Denver Broncos
1986Denver Broncos
1985New England Patriots
1984Miami Dolphins
1983Los Angeles Raiders
1982Miami Dolphins
1981Cincinnati Bengals
1980Oakland Raiders
1979Pittsburgh Steelers
1978Pittsburgh Steelers
1977Denver Broncos
1976Oakland Raiders
1975Pittsburgh Steelers
1974Pittsburgh Steelers
1973Miami Dolphins
1972Miami Dolphins
1971Miami Dolphins
1970Baltimore Colts

Popular NFL Futures Bets

NFL bettors can place wagers on a variety of futures markets, both long-term and short-term, depending on when the bets are placed.

Futures bets are available for team and player performances. The closer the finish line on the bets, the more lopsided the bets usually are in favor of the prospective winner. Betting futures far away from the completion date is, therefore usually more profitable, unless there is a huge upset or reversal in fortunes late into the season.

Here are different kinds of futures bets that are available.

Regular Season Wins

Bettors can find project win totals for every team in the league and wager on whether or not the team will exceed that total. Win totals are usually set at x.5 so that there are no pushes (draws). For example, the Bengals have a projected win total of 11.5, so 11 wins or fewer would be under, and 12 or more would be over.

Record Breakers

At the start of every season, a selection of record-breaker bets is available. These bets target players who are either close to historical achievements or have shown a propensity or ability to challenge for all-time marks. 

An example of a record breakers bet is Patrick Mahomes to throw for the most yards in a single NFL season. In 2022, he threw for 5,250 last season, which is just about 13.3 yards per game off the all-time mark.

Player Totals

Bettors can also bet on player single-season totals in different areas, including passing and rushing totals, sacks, interceptions, and more. These are correlated to but still distinctly different from awards betting (which we discuss below).

Award Winners

Players can also throw down bets on which athletes will win different awards, including MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, and more. These bets can be placed from the first day post-Super Bowl all the way until the end of the season, but the odds are constantly changing.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the AFC Championship

Choosing the best online sportsbook can seem like a daunting process, but it is actually not all that bad. We have provided a guide on how to pick the best sportsbook for your NFL betting pleasure, which we encourage you to read.

Make sure to try out different sportsbooks and find the one that you are the most comfortable with before making any long-term commitments.

For more information, check our list of the best NFL betting sites.

BetMGMCaesarsFanDuel
AFC Championship Winner Odds+220+210+220
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AFC Championship Winner Odds

There’s a very simple way to remember how odds work.

If the odds value starts with a “-,” that means that bettors have to risk the listed amount to win $100. For example, -400 odds means that a $400 bet will result in a $100 profit. Lines with “-” are usually (but not always) the favored outcome, or the one that is expected to occur.

If the odds value is preceded by a “+,” that means that a $100 bet will win the listed amount. So, +400 odds means that a $100 bet will result in $400 of profit.   

Welcome Bonus

NFL betting sites offer constant welcome bonuses to new users to make the sign-up process more enjoyable and profitable. Bonuses can result in all sorts of prizes, including money-back in bet credits if the first bet loses, guaranteed bonus bets, odds boosts, deposit matches, and much more.

Payment Options

Every sportsbook will accept different forms of payment, although almost all of them have the same basic options. You can find more information about what payment methods are available at a particular sportsbook by consulting our sportsbook reviews or navigating to the deposit section of your sportsbook.

2024 AFC Championship FAQ

What Is the AFC Championship?

When Is the AFC Championship Game?

Who Is Favored to Win the AFC?

Which Team Has Won the Most AFC Championship Games?

Which Team Has Lost the Most AFC Championship Games?

tip_r

Responsible Gambling

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Tanner Kern

Tanner Kern

Sports Betting Analyst & On-Air Host

Expertise:
MLB
NCAAB
NCAAF
NFL
Online Sports Betting
Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.
Email: [email protected]
Nationality: American
Education: M.S in Sports Journalism
Favourite Sportsbook: Fanatics Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: Caesars Palace
Experience: 4 years
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