The Chiefs odds shifted from +185 to +220 to win the AFC
The Bills are now +290 after taking down the Chiefs in Week 11
Josh Allen is the new MVP favorite at +125
The Buffalo Bills defeated the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Josh Allen's great game helped the team win, making him the frontrunner for MVP.
Allen is currently +125 to win the award on FanDuel Sportsbook, with Lamar Jackson in second at +200. The AFC is loaded with talented quarterbacks, so Allen’s win over Patrick Mahomes should give the team confidence heading into the ladder portion of the season.
Allen is 4-1 over Mahomes in the regular season but 0-3 in the postseason. The Bills are still in line to earn the one seed, but we hesitate because Kansas City runs the league.
The Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens have separated themselves from the pack in the AFC. Despite this, the odds between these three teams are rapidly changing. Here, we will analyze the movement and predict the conference winner.
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds below and head to FanDuel to place your bets: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.
Team | Odds |
---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | +220 BET HERE |
Buffalo Bills | +290 BET HERE |
Baltimore Ravens | +400 BET HERE |
Houston Texans | +900 BET HERE |
Pittsburgh Steelers | +950 BET HERE |
Los Angeles Chargers | +1300 BET HERE |
Denver Broncos | +3300 BET HERE |
Miami Dolphins | +4000 BET HERE |
Cincinnati Bengals | +4800 BET HERE |
Indianapolis Colts | +5000 BET HERE |
New York Jets | +45000 BET HERE |
Tennessee Titans | +85000 BET HERE |
New England Patriots | +100000 BET HERE |
Cleveland Browns | +100000 BET HERE |
Las Vegas Raiders | +100000 BET HERE |
Jacksonville Jaguars | +100000 BET HERE |
The Chiefs lost to the Bills, but they still run the AFC. Kansas City has one loss this season, and it came on the road as an underdog to a talented Bills team.
The Chiefs didn’t make the needed plays on offense or defense to win this game, but the losing margin doesn’t represent how tight the contest was for four quarters. Allen had a breakaway run on fourth down in the final minutes, which lengthened the Bills lead.
If Allen had been stopped on the fourth down, Mahomes would have been in a prime position to drive the field and win the game. The Chiefs are now +220 to win the AFC, up from +185 before the loss.
The Chiefs needed to be better to win, but they played one of their worst games possible and were still in a spot to win. Mahomes was 22 of 33 for 196 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.
His first interception occurred on the Chiefs opening drive, which set up a touchdown for the Bills. His second pick came at the end of the game when Kansas City was facing a two-score deficit.
The Chiefs didn’t throw or run the ball well. They had 17 carries for 78 yards on the ground, with Kareem Hunt being the only producer. Defensively, they surrendered 262 yards through the air and 104 on the ground.
Even though Kansas City won, the stats don’t matter. The Chiefs know how to win in the playoffs, making their odds dip a perfect time to buy. The Bills are 0-3 against the Chiefs with Allen at quarterback in playoff games, so we trust the Chiefs when the pressure increases.
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The Bills played a perfect game against the Chiefs on Sunday. They tamed Mahomes with a ruthless pass rush and scored in high-leverage situations on offense.
Buffalo started the game by taking advantage of a Mahomes interception. Buffalo took over at their 35-yard line and drove 65 yards to the house.
The drive ended with a James Cook touchdown, his first of two throughout the game. Cook only had nine carries for 20 yards, but he was effective when he needed to score.
Allen was the player who shined for the Bills. The quarterback was 27 of 40 for 262 yards with one passing touchdown and one interception.
He also carried the ball 12 times for 55 yards with one touchdown. His touchdown run was the dagger for the Chiefs, as this score put Kansas City down by nine points following the Tyler Bass PAT.
While this was a significant win for the Bills, we still have our fears regarding this team. They haven’t been able to finish in the postseason against the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 3-0 against Buffalo in the playoffs but 1-4 in the regular season. The Bills don’t have a problem beating the Chiefs, but they have an issue beating Kansas City when it counts.
Buffalo’s best chance of winning the AFC is to claim the one seed. This will require them to have an equal or better record than the Chiefs.
Buffalo’s remaining schedule is relatively demanding, so winning out may be off the table. Next week, they have the 49ers, who are desperate for a win to be in playoff contention. They also face the Rams and Lions, two of the best teams in the NFC.
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The Ravens looked like the strongest team in the AFC, but many people have paused their coverage of Baltimore after losing to the Steelers in Week 11. The Ravens lost 18-16 but never had any control of the game.
Baltimore dominated every opponent in their path, but Pittsburgh ended this streak. However, as bad as Baltimore played, they were a two-point conversion away from taking the game to overtime.
The most concerning part about the game was Lamar Jackson’s play. Jackson was the MVP leader at +180 on FanDuel Sportsbook, but Allen overtook him following Week 11.
Jackson was horrendous throughout the game, going 16 of 33 for 207 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also carried the ball four times for 46 yards.
Jackson is second in passing yards, touchdowns, and quarterback rating, so he didn’t post a typical stat line against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the AFC, and they should be in line to make a playoff run, but Baltimore is a more talented team.
However, they must play well against physical defenses to have a chance at a championship in 2024. With four losses, it’s doubtful the Ravens have a chance at the top seed in the AFC.
Baltimore also lost their lead in the AFC North after losing to the Steelers. Therefore, Baltimore could enter the playoffs without a home game on the calendar.
The Ravens' relatively demanding schedule includes big matchups against the Chargers, Eagles, Steelers, and Texans before the end of the year.
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The Kansas City Chiefs are still the authority in the AFC. One loss doesn’t change that the Chiefs have beaten everyone else on their schedule and have the best quarterback in the NFL.
The odds are stacked against the Chiefs, but if any team can win three in a row, it’s Andy Reid’s squad. Take advantage of the lengthened odds following the team’s loss last week.
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The Chiefs won the AFC Championship Game in 2023, defeating the Ravens 27-20. Kansas City’s defense was fantastic throughout the entire game.
Lamar Jackson won the MVP in 2023-24, and Kansas City’s defense made him look silly. Jackson turned the ball over multiple times and was held to 54 yards rushing. Considering he was the Ravens' leading rusher, this limited result was a massive success for Kansas City.
Travis Kelce delivered for the Chiefs on offense, catching 11 passes for 116 yards with one touchdown. This marked the second straight AFC Championship victory for Kansas City and their sixth consecutive year in the title game.
The NFC and AFC were formed in 1970 when the NFL merged with the American Football League (AFL), splitting the league into two distinct conferences. The Baltimore Colts (now the Indianapolis Colts) defeated the Oakland Raiders (Las Vegas Raiders) 27-17 in the first AFC Championship Game.
The winner of the AFC Championship Game earns a bid in the Super Bowl against the NFC champion and also takes home the Lamar Hunt trophy, named after the founder of the AFL.
Year | Champion |
---|---|
2023 | Kansas City Chiefs |
2022 | Kansas City Chiefs |
2021 | Cincinnati Bengals |
2020 | Kansas City Chiefs |
2019 | Kansas City Chiefs |
2018 | New England Patriots |
2017 | New England Patriots |
2016 | New England Patriots |
2015 | Denver Broncos |
2014 | New England Patriots |
2013 | Denver Broncos |
2012 | Baltimore Ravens |
2011 | New England Patriots |
2010 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
2009 | Indianapolis Colts |
2008 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
2007 | New England Patriots |
2006 | Indianapolis Colts |
2005 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
2004 | New England Patriots |
2003 | New England Patriots |
2002 | Oakland Raiders |
2001 | New England Patriots |
2000 | Baltimore Ravens |
1999 | Tennessee Titans |
1998 | Denver Broncos |
1997 | Denver Broncos |
1996 | New England Patriots |
1995 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
1994 | San Diego Chargers |
1993 | Buffalo Bills |
1992 | Buffalo Bills |
1991 | Buffalo Bills |
1990 | Buffalo Bills |
1989 | Denver Broncos |
1988 | Cincinnati Bengals |
1987 | Denver Broncos |
1986 | Denver Broncos |
1985 | New England Patriots |
1984 | Miami Dolphins |
1983 | Los Angeles Raiders |
1982 | Miami Dolphins |
1981 | Cincinnati Bengals |
1980 | Oakland Raiders |
1979 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
1978 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
1977 | Denver Broncos |
1976 | Oakland Raiders |
1975 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
1974 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
1973 | Miami Dolphins |
1972 | Miami Dolphins |
1971 | Miami Dolphins |
1970 | Baltimore Colts |
NFL bettors can place wagers on a variety of futures markets, both long-term and short-term, depending on when the bets are placed.
Futures bets are available for team and player performances. The closer the finish line on the bets, the more lopsided the bets usually are in favor of the prospective winner. Betting futures far away from the completion date is, therefore usually more profitable, unless there is a huge upset or reversal in fortunes late into the season.
Here are different kinds of futures bets that are available.
Bettors can find project win totals for every team in the league and wager on whether or not the team will exceed that total. Win totals are usually set at x.5 so that there are no pushes (draws). For example, the Bengals have a projected win total of 11.5, so 11 wins or fewer would be under, and 12 or more would be over.
At the start of every season, a selection of record-breaker bets is available. These bets target players who are either close to historical achievements or have shown a propensity or ability to challenge for all-time marks.
An example of a record breakers bet is Patrick Mahomes to throw for the most yards in a single NFL season. In 2022, he threw for 5,250 last season, which is just about 13.3 yards per game off the all-time mark.
Bettors can also bet on player single-season totals in different areas, including passing and rushing totals, sacks, interceptions, and more. These are correlated to but still distinctly different from awards betting (which we discuss below).
Players can also throw down bets on which athletes will win different awards, including MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, and more. These bets can be placed from the first day post-Super Bowl all the way until the end of the season, but the odds are constantly changing.
Choosing the best online sportsbook can seem like a daunting process, but it is actually not all that bad. We have provided a guide on how to pick the best sportsbook for your NFL betting pleasure, which we encourage you to read.
Make sure to try out different sportsbooks and find the one that you are the most comfortable with before making any long-term commitments.
For more information, check our list of the best NFL betting sites.
BetMGM | Caesars | FanDuel | |
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AFC Championship Winner Odds | +220 | +210 | +220 |
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There’s a very simple way to remember how odds work.
If the odds value starts with a “-,” that means that bettors have to risk the listed amount to win $100. For example, -400 odds means that a $400 bet will result in a $100 profit. Lines with “-” are usually (but not always) the favored outcome, or the one that is expected to occur.
If the odds value is preceded by a “+,” that means that a $100 bet will win the listed amount. So, +400 odds means that a $100 bet will result in $400 of profit.
NFL betting sites offer constant welcome bonuses to new users to make the sign-up process more enjoyable and profitable. Bonuses can result in all sorts of prizes, including money-back in bet credits if the first bet loses, guaranteed bonus bets, odds boosts, deposit matches, and much more.
Every sportsbook will accept different forms of payment, although almost all of them have the same basic options. You can find more information about what payment methods are available at a particular sportsbook by consulting our sportsbook reviews or navigating to the deposit section of your sportsbook.
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