AFC Championship Odds, Favorites to Win, Best Bets 2024/25: Bills Favored to Win Conference

• The Chiefs beat the Browns and covered for the first time in seven games

• Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury and is questionable for Week 16

• Buffalo is favored to win the conference after beating Detroit in Week 15

The Buffalo Bills, led by MVP favorite Josh Allen, defeated the Detroit Lions on Sunday. This win caused a lot of line movement, as Buffalo shifted from +240 to +180 to win the AFC. 

The Bills have looked like the best team in the conference for weeks now, and this has also coincided with an injury to Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes suffered an ankle injury last week, which caused the Chiefs to slide in the odds. 

Based on the odds, the Bills, the Chiefs, and the Ravens are still the three primary contenders in the conference. However, as we have seen in years past, anything can happen in the NFL. 

Even though the AFC is top-heavy, the board constantly changes and will continue doing so until we decide on the conference champion. Here, we will analyze the movement and predict the conference winner.

AFC Championship Odds

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds below and head to FanDuel to place your bets: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

AFC Championship Predictions - AFC Favorites

Buffalo Bills (+180) at FanDuel

The Bills have locked up the AFC East, but they’re still on the outside looking in for the top seed. Kansas City holds the top spot in the conference, even though Buffalo has a head-to-head win over the back-to-back Super Bowl champions. 

Josh Allen has changed the narrative surrounding the Bills in 2024. The team lost Stefon Diggs in the offseason, and the football world believed this would be detrimental. However, Diggs's departure has helped the team elevate its play to a different level.

Allen has made his cast of weapons look like some of the best players in the NFL and elevated his game in the process. Allen is currently -900 to win MVP, and rightfully so, as he has been the most dominant player in the game. 

The Bills are making a push, and they have Super Bowl aspirations. They made a statement on Sunday against the Lions on the road, and we believe this will continue. 

Buffalo’s defense struggled against the Lions, allowing 42 points. However, Allen and company put up more as the team won by six. Allen was 23-34 for 362 yards and two touchdowns in the win. 

He also carried the ball 11 times for 68 yards with two additional touchdowns. Allen connected with Ty Johnson for most of the game, who caught five passes for 114 yards. 

Khalil Shakir and Ray Davis were the two receivers who hauled in touchdown passes. The Bills looked like a Super Bowl champion on Sunday, and they still are in line to claim the top seed in the AFC. 

They have three easy games against the Patriots and the Jets twice. They still need the Chiefs to lose, but it’s very possible. 

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Kansas City Chiefs (+270) at FanDuel

The Chiefs' odds of winning the AFC shifted from +210 to +270. Now is the time to bet on them because their odds of winning the conference haven’t been this long in months. 

The rise of Allen and the Bills, combined with the Chiefs' inability to cover spreads, has caused bookmakers to give Kansas City a favorable price. 

The Chiefs are dealing with some adversity, considering that their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, has a high ankle sprain. The severity is unknown, but he attempted to practice on Tuesday. 

Practices in the season include limited contact, especially with the Chiefs playing three games in two weeks because of their Christmas showdown. 

Kansas City is battling Buffalo for the top AFC seed, but having their MVP quarterback healthy is more important. Mahomes and Kansas City have shown the ability to win games on the road in the playoffs, so we still trust them no matter what seed they claim. 

Mahomes has also dominated Allen in the playoffs. The quarterback finds ways to win games, so we should expect to see this again until the narrative changes. 

Kansas City covered their first spread in eight games on Sunday when they beat the Browns 21-7. It was a solid win, but it wasn’t dominant. 

Cleveland isn’t a great football team, so the final score wasn’t surprising. The Chiefs will the Texans on Saturday before finishing the season with the Steelers and Broncos. 

If Mahomes can’t play, Carson Wentz will be under center. Wentz is a reliable backup but isn’t at the same level as the quarterback.

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Baltimore Ravens (+390) at FanDuel

The Baltimore Ravens are being disrespected because of their record. They are +390 to win the AFC Championship, even though they should have shorter odds. 

This is a good spot to buy on Baltimore, as they have gone 2-1 in their past three games, including a tight loss to the Eagles. 

The positive news for the Ravens is that they have a stacked roster and an excellent quarterback in Lamar Jackson. Jackson has won multiple MVP awards and is currently second on the odds list. 

While Allen is -900, Jackson has better stats in many categories. He has a higher completion percentage, more touchdowns, and passing and rushing yards while having fewer interceptions. 

The quarterback threw five touchdowns on Sunday against the Giants. The combination of Jackson and Derrick Henry should be deadly postseason, no matter where the Ravens fall in the seeding. 

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AFC Championship Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (+270) at FanDuel

The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t been +270 to win the AFC in months. They can win games on the road and at home in the postseason, so we’re not worried if the Chiefs don’t receive the top seed. 

The current favorite is the Bills. Allen still hasn’t beaten Mahomes in the playoffs, so we’re confident Kansas City can get the job done in the AFC.

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Who Won the AFC Championship in 2023/24?

The Chiefs won the AFC Championship Game in 2023, defeating the Ravens 27-20. Kansas City’s defense was fantastic throughout the entire game. 

Lamar Jackson won the MVP in 2023-24, and Kansas City’s defense made him look silly. Jackson turned the ball over multiple times and was held to 54 yards rushing. Considering he was the Ravens' leading rusher, this limited result was a massive success for Kansas City. 

Travis Kelce delivered for the Chiefs on offense, catching 11 passes for 116 yards with one touchdown. This marked the second straight AFC Championship victory for Kansas City and their sixth consecutive year in the title game. 

AFC Championship Winner History

The NFC and AFC were formed in 1970 when the NFL merged with the American Football League (AFL), splitting the league into two distinct conferences. The Baltimore Colts (now the Indianapolis Colts) defeated the Oakland Raiders (Las Vegas Raiders) 27-17 in the first AFC Championship Game.

The winner of the AFC Championship Game earns a bid in the Super Bowl against the NFC champion and also takes home the Lamar Hunt trophy, named after the founder of the AFL.

History of Past AFC Champions

Popular NFL Futures Bets

NFL bettors can place wagers on a variety of futures markets, both long-term and short-term, depending on when the bets are placed.

Futures bets are available for team and player performances. The closer the finish line on the bets, the more lopsided the bets usually are in favor of the prospective winner. Betting futures far away from the completion date is, therefore usually more profitable, unless there is a huge upset or reversal in fortunes late into the season.

Here are different kinds of futures bets that are available.

Regular Season Wins

Bettors can find project win totals for every team in the league and wager on whether or not the team will exceed that total. Win totals are usually set at x.5 so that there are no pushes (draws). For example, the Bengals have a projected win total of 11.5, so 11 wins or fewer would be under, and 12 or more would be over.

Record Breakers

At the start of every season, a selection of record-breaker bets is available. These bets target players who are either close to historical achievements or have shown a propensity or ability to challenge for all-time marks. 

An example of a record breakers bet is Patrick Mahomes to throw for the most yards in a single NFL season. In 2022, he threw for 5,250 last season, which is just about 13.3 yards per game off the all-time mark.

Player Totals

Bettors can also bet on player single-season totals in different areas, including passing and rushing totals, sacks, interceptions, and more. These are correlated to but still distinctly different from awards betting (which we discuss below).

Award Winners

Players can also throw down bets on which athletes will win different awards, including MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, and more. These bets can be placed from the first day post-Super Bowl all the way until the end of the season, but the odds are constantly changing.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the AFC Championship

Choosing the best online sportsbook can seem like a daunting process, but it is actually not all that bad. We have provided a guide on how to pick the best sportsbook for your NFL betting pleasure, which we encourage you to read.

Make sure to try out different sportsbooks and find the one that you are the most comfortable with before making any long-term commitments.

For more information, check our list of the best NFL betting sites.

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AFC Championship Winner Odds

There’s a very simple way to remember how odds work.

If the odds value starts with a “-,” that means that bettors have to risk the listed amount to win $100. For example, -400 odds means that a $400 bet will result in a $100 profit. Lines with “-” are usually (but not always) the favored outcome, or the one that is expected to occur.

If the odds value is preceded by a “+,” that means that a $100 bet will win the listed amount. So, +400 odds means that a $100 bet will result in $400 of profit.   

Welcome Bonus

NFL betting sites offer constant welcome bonuses to new users to make the sign-up process more enjoyable and profitable. Bonuses can result in all sorts of prizes, including money-back in bet credits if the first bet loses, guaranteed bonus bets, odds boosts, deposit matches, and much more.

Payment Options

Every sportsbook will accept different forms of payment, although almost all of them have the same basic options. You can find more information about what payment methods are available at a particular sportsbook by consulting our sportsbook reviews or navigating to the deposit section of your sportsbook.