The 49ers are without wide receiver Deebo Samuel and running back Christian McCaffrey.
The Rams are without star wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
The Rams have some pass blocking help with Alaric Jackson and Logan Bruss potentially back in the lineup.
The 0-2 Los Angeles Rams are hosting the 1-1 San Francisco 49ers in an NFC West showdown. Below is my pick for this game, predictions, and top player props.
Let’s check it out.
Odds for this matchup are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. New customers at FanDuel can get $200 in bonus bets instantly when they wager $5 on the platform.
Team | Moneyline | Point Spread | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Rams | +285 | +7 (-105) | Over 44.5 (-110) |
49ers | -355 | -7 (-115) | Under 44.5 (-110) |
The Rams are 0-2 to start the year and coming off a blowout loss to the Arizona Cardinals on the road, 41-10. Here, they’ll have left tackle Alaric Jackson and, it appears, left guard Logan Bruss back in the lineup. This will help against 49ers pass rusher Nick Bosa. However, right guard Kevin Dotson is questionable. Both teams have injuries on offense, with the 49ers missing Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey and the Rams missing their top two wide receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. I expect to see more running of the football here, and because of that, I think the Rams, in their home opener, manage to keep it close enough to cover the spread.
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This is a matchup between two teams that each lack two key offensive pieces. As mentioned, it’s McCaffrey and Samuel for the 49ers and Kupp and Nacua for the Rams.
When I look at this matchup, it’s clear that the Rams have had a pass-blocking issue all season. They’ve allowed 35 pressures and six sacks. Thankfully, they have a quarterback in Matthew Stafford, who can make something work, but he just needs a bit more time to let plays develop. It appears Jackson (back from suspension) and Bruss will be back in the lineup, assisting on the left side of the offensive line. This is exactly where 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa rushes from, so slowing him down is the No. 1 goal for this offensive line here.
Both teams here will want to run the ball. The 49ers already do quite well, averaging 31.5 attempts (ninth) and 141 yards (11th) per game. The Rams haven’t run too well this season, averaging just 68 yards per game, but remember, they were getting blown out in Week 2.
The 49ers allowed 146 yards on the ground to the Vikings in Week 2, and I think the Rams should aim to get rookie running back Blake Corum going a bit more in this spot.
The Rams will certainly utilize their collection of weapons with Jordan Whittington, Demarcus Robinson, and Tyler Johnson, but the key for them here is running the ball successfully.
It’s easy to dog on the Rams right now, but I trust Sean McVay to adapt to their injury woes and keep this game close enough. I’m also intrigued to see Rams defensive end Jared Verse up against the veteran Trent Williams.
I do have concerns that the Rams might not be able to generate pressure against the 49ers offensive line, but again, this is a game in which I expect to see a lot of running the ball on both sides.
In games like that, laying seven points to a road favorite is a lot. Take the home underdog.
Getting this prop at just +320 isn’t the best value, but it makes sense to bet it based on how I think this game will go.
This season, Mason has 48 carries for 247 yards and two touchdowns. He’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
The 49ers are the road favorite here, and the Rams have allowed 62 carries for 309 yards (4.98 yards per carry) and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. They’ve been one of the worst teams in the league against the run.
This is a perfect spot for the 49ers to rely on Mason, especially with two notable injuries on offense. Mason will lead them to a road win here, despite my prediction of the Rams covering.
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I’m preparing for a big game from Mason, as should you. Thus, I’m doubling up on his player props and taking the over at 89.5 rushing yards.
Mason has run for 100 or more yards in both games this season and, as a road favorite, takes on a Rams defense that’s one of the worst teams in the league against the run. They allowed Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery to run for 91 yards on 17 carries in Week 1 and Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner to run 21 times for 122 yards in Week 2.
They have a track record of allowing a lot of production to single running backs, and here, that’ll be Mason.
Mason is the sole running back getting any action on this offense. Fellow running back rookie Isaac Guerendo is more of a pass-catching back and has just one carry through two games.
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With Nacua and Kupp out, the Rams need someone to catch passes, and Robinson appears to be the most reliable option.
This season, Robinson is leading the Rams in receiving snaps and is tied for the most targets among the active receivers—he and Tyler Johnson both have 10 targets.
Robinson averages 15.3 yards per catch and runs routes on 97.4% of his snaps.
Robinson’s receiving prop is also at 43.5. I opted for the rushing/receiving prop because I think there’s a chance we see a reverse from Robinson here to help elevate the ground game, which is averaging just 68 yards per game.
He had one carry last year for 23 yards. Again, it’s a long shot, but with the receiving prop being the exact same, you might as well add potential rushing yards into the fold.
I think Stafford will have slightly better protection here with Jackson and Bruss back in the lineup. I anticipate Robinson to be Stafford’s primary outlet, as he was on the roster last year.
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When: Sunday, September 22 at 4:25 PM ET
Where: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Where to Watch: FOX
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49ers Injuries
49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel is doubtful to play with a calf injury.
49ers running back Christian McCaffrey was placed on injured reserve with a calf injury.
Rams Injuries
Rams cornerback Cobie Durant is questionable with a toe injury.
Rams right guard Kevin Dotson is questionable to play.
Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is doubtful with an ankle injury.
Rams guard Steve Avila was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury.
Rams safety John Johnson III was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury.
Rams wide receiver Puka Ncua was placed on injured reserve with a PCL injury.
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