Woman's NCAA Tournament Odds & Predictions 2025: Watkins Injury Turns USC Into a Great Value Play

• USC lost JuJu Watkins to an ACL injury early in Monday night’s game against Mississippi State.

• Despite a blowout win vs. the Bulldogs anyway, USC’s national championship odds have plummeted.

• USC has become a tremendous value play at +3000 via FanDuel.

Things had gone well for the top teams in the women’s March Madness bracket through the first two rounds, up until the final game of Round 2 Monday night, USC vs. Mississippi State. Early in the game, JuJu Watkins went down with what was later determined to be an ACL injury.

As could be expected, the national title odds for the Trojans took a hit. The Trojans have now gone from being one of the primary contenders to a solid dark horse/long shot at +3000.

However, while losing Watkins will make a title run more challenging, the Trojans are not out of the picture yet. Teams knew they had a chance to win if they could slow down Watkins. But without her to focus on, they’ll be forced to defend the whole court.

Kiki Iriafen was a women’s Wooden Award candidate this season and led the charge in a blowout win over Mississippi State. Can she carry the Trojans to a title? At +3000, it’s worth a few dollars to find out.

NCAAW Tournament Winner Odds

Odds for the NCAAW Tournament winner are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place your bets at FanDuel and claim the bonus: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

*The rest of the league listed at +3500 odds and higher.

NCAAW Preseason Championship Trends

• 18 of 43 preseason No.1s went on to win the national championship.

• Ten of the last 21 winners were preseason No. 1s.

• But only one in the last seven seasons (South Carolina, 2022).

• Every national champion since 2003 was ranked inside the top 16 of the preseason rankings.

• 19 of the last 21 national champs were ranked inside the preseason top ten.

• The two outliers were LSU in 2023 (preseason No. 16 and Maryland in 2006 (preseason No. 14).

2025 NCAAW National Championship: Turmoil at the Top

There haven’t been too many changes at the top of the AP Poll this season. That is, up until the last couple of weeks. UCLA spent weeks atop the Poll, but then the Bruins lost to USC 71-60 (Feb. 13), which opened the door for Notre Dame to ascend to the top spot.

However, the Fighting Irish’s time at No. 1 was short as they dropped from No. 1 after getting upset by NC State. That paved the way for Texas to make a move and become the No. 1 team in the country for the first time in 21 years and the fourth team to be ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll this season.

So, let’s take a closer look at those four teams

South Carolina

• Record: 25-3

• Preseason Rank: No. 1

• Current Rank: No. 6

• Weeks Ranked #1: 3

The Gamecocks were an obvious choice to open the season as the No. 1 team in the country, having won back-to-back national championships. But it didn’t take long for their fall from grace to begin as they lost to UCLA in their sixth game of the season.

While they have been unable to regain the top spot, South Carolina remained the betting favorite to win it all this season until recently after they were destroyed by UConn, 87-58. It was the third loss of the season and second in three games.

Losses at this time of year are discouraging, but no team knows how to win in the postseason quite like the Gamecocks. If any team can get back on track come Tournament time and make a run, it’s South Carolina.

UCLA

• Record: 26-1

• Preseason Rank: No. 5

• Current Rank: No. 2

• Weeks Ranked #1: 11

After ending South Carolina’s winning streak, the then-No. 5 Bruins were an obvious choice to bump up to the top spot, where they stayed for most of the regular season. They remained there for as long as they did for one simple reason—they kept winning.

That is, until they lost to their crosstown rival USC at home, 71-60 (Feb. 13). The loss knocked them out of the top spot. But they’ve responded with a pair of wins over ranked teams and will get a chance at revenge against USC in their season finale.

Notre Dame

• Record: 24-3

• Preseason Rank: No. 6

• Current Rank: No. 3

• Weeks Ranked #1: 1

After a couple of early season stumbles (vs. USC and TCU), Notre Dame bulldozed its way through the competition, winning 19 in a row and ascending to the No. 1 spot after UCLA’s loss to USC. However, their time at the top was short-lived, as they wrapped up their first week at the top, with a 2OT loss at NC State.

The Fighting Irish will be tough to beat come Tournament time. They have one of the best offenses in the country (No. 4, 86.8 points per game), play solid defense (No. 103, 61.3 points per game allowed), and the No. 1 three-point percentage (40.6 percent).

Texas

• Record: 26-2

• Preseason Rank: No. 4

• Current Rank: No. 1

• Weeks Ranked #1: 1

Texas has been nipping at the heels of South Carolina, UCLA, and Notre Dame all season, ranking inside the top five for most of the season (consistently since Week 13). So, when Notre Dame unexpectedly lost to NC State, the Longhorns were right there at No. 2, ready to move up a spot.

Texas’ talented roster is rare in that it is among the best on both ends of the court, ranking No. 10 in the country in scoring and No. 21 in points per game allowed. No team has more wins against ranked opponents than they do (9-2).

NCAAW Championship Winner - My Picks

Favorite - Texas

Texas has quietly been one of the best teams in the country, with wins against five top-ten teams. With an offense capable of putting up points and a defense that can shut opponents down, it is not hard to see them making a deep run come Tournament time and possibly even win it all.

At +800, they may be the best value play in college basketball.

• Honorable Mention: South Carolina +300, UCLA, +450, Notre Dame +600

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Dark Horse - UConn

Paige Bueckers has not had an award-winning season, but she is still one of the best players in the country and on one of the more talented rosters. The Huskies have not been the top dog this season, but they have remained one of the top contenders throughout.

After watching them demolish South Carolina, they could certainly have what it takes to win it all. 

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Long Shot - LSU

The Tigers have not had the same amount of success as Texas or South Carolina, but LSU has gone 5-2 against ranked teams this year and has a top-ten offense. The two losses were to South Carolina and Texas, and they were not exactly close games. But if someone else can take those two out and they get a few lucky bounces on defense, they could surprise the world.

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NCAAW Championship History

The Women’s NCAA Division I basketball tournament began in 1982, with 32 teams participating. Louisiana Tech won the first title, defeating Cheyney 76-62. Over the years, the number of teams participating has ranged from 32 to 64 (since 1994). As of the 2022 Tournament, the number of teams expanded to 68.

UConn holds the record for most appearances as a No. 1 seed with 22 followed by Tennessee with 21. 

Past NCAAW Championship Winners

The following table contains the list of the teams that have won the women’s national championship and their records.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the NCAAW Championship

Now that we’ve gone over the NCAAW Championship odds and several of the top contenders to win this year’s title, it’s time to figure out which sportsbook you want to use. Here is a quick look at a comparison of three of the top sportsbooks in the industry, but you can check out our sportsbook reviews here: 

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

How to Read NCAAW Championship Betting Lines

NCAAW Championship odds are considered a futures market with a three-digit number preceded by a plus (+) or minus (-) sign. The number and sign are the odds of the market and tell bettors how much they’ll win. 

For example, if you were to bet on South Carolina’s preseason odds to win the national championship +160, a $100 wager will result in a $260 payday, your stake plus $160 in winnings.

But let’s say you wait until the end of another undefeated regular season, and the Gamecocks odds are -180. That means it will take a $180 wager to win $100. Betting $100 is not mandatory, of course. To see how much you can win when you bet XXX, plug your stake and the odds into our odds calculator.

States With Betting Restrictions on the NCAAW Championship Odds

The following states have restrictions regarding betting on college basketball (and college sports in general). States listed do not allow betting on teams from in-state colleges and universities unless otherwise specified:

• New Jersey

• Illinois

• Tennessee: Live betting is also prohibited.

• Virginia: Live betting is also prohibited.

• New Hampshire

• New York: Betting on events held in New York is also prohibited.

• Oregon: Betting on college teams can only be done at casinos.

• Rhode Island: Betting is also prohibited on events held in-state.

• Washington DC

• Connecticut

• Delaware

• No live betting in Mississippi

• New Mexico

• South Dakota

• Washington