NCAAB Picks Against the Spread: CBB Teams to Target This Week

Because most betting lines for college basketball games don’t drop until the night before, determining which teams have positive trends, impressive statistics, and ideal upcoming matchups can often be challenging for the non-professional bettor due to time restraints.

Our NCAAB Picks page hopes to bridge the gap between the frustrating wait on betting lines that we all experience for college basketball games and the time required to delve into a matchup to adequately evaluate it by highlighting the hottest teams in the country and in which particular spots they might be good to back.

While it can be challenging to predict exactly where a line might open, this page will be a helpful resource and hub for the most important statistics and trends, allowing you to make more informed betting decisions.

College Basketball Picks: Teams to Target ATS This Week

Purdue Boilermakers

2024-25 Record: 15-4 (7-1 in Big Ten)

Trends: 11-8 ATS, 10-9 Over Record

Stats:

• 7-game winning streak, including win on the road against Oregon

• 10th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin

• 8th in adjusted offensive efficiency

• 11th in average scoring margin nationally in their past three games

• 19th in effective field goal percentage

Since their loss to the top-ranked Auburn Tigers, the Purdue Boilermakers have rattled off seven consecutive wins, with six of those coming by double-digits. 

Their only single-digit win in that stretch was on the road against a ranked Oregon team.

Today, the Boilers will host the struggling Ohio State Buckeyes, who have lost three consecutive Big Ten bouts, at Mackey Arena.

Obviously, Mackey is a venue that they have been uber comfortable at this season. 

In fact, Purdue is 9-0 on its home floor (6-3 against the spread), with an average scoring margin of +18.8; however, the Boilers have been even better there recently, outscoring their last three opponents by 24.3 points per game at home.

During this span, Purdue has gotten exceptional play from Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith, the team’s two leading scorers.

Kaufman-Renn has averaged 17.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game on 60.2% shooting from the field. When the ball is in Kaufman-Renn hands, good things have been happening.

The same can be said about Big Ten Player of the Year candidate Braden Smith, who has recorded 18.9 points, 9.9 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.9 steals per game on a 47/38/82 shooting split.

As mentioned above, the Buckeyes have struggled recently, losing three straight games and four of their past five. 

Still, all of those games have been competitive, with a seven-point home loss to now-No. 8 Michigan State being the widest margin.

With that being said, the Bucks will still be without Meechie Johnson Jr, who is away from the team due to personal matters, and might not have Devin Royal, their second leading scorer, back from his injury.

If Royal can’t play, the Boilers should be able to take care of business.

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UConn Huskies

2024-25 Record: 13-5 (5-2 in Big East)

Trends: 8-9-1 ATS, 9-8-1 Over Record

Stats:

• 350th in opponent 3P%

• 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom)

• 127th in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom)

• 3rd in assists per game

I’ll put it this way: I would not want to be at a UConn basketball practice after the team’s home loss to Creighton last weekend.

The Bluejays came into Storrs and left with a five-point road victory behind a 24-point night from Jamiya Neal. Huskies head coach Dan Hurley did not mince words about his team after the loss.

The offensive end of the floor has not been the issue, as the Huskies rank seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in effective field goal percentage.

Rather, it is the other end of the floor that has been a tragedy for the Huskies. 

UConn ranks 127th in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to shoot 42.3% from the field and a head-scratching 38.1% from behind the arc. 

The team’s 3-point defense is the 15th-worst in the country thus far in the 2024-25 campaign.

So, why in the world would I back this team now? Look at the Huskies’ 2022-23 season. They had a bad slide at a similar part of the year and bounced back in a major way.

I’d expect a much-improved effort on the perimeter from the Huskies, especially against a Butler team that put a scare in them earlier this season.

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