NCAAB Picks Against the Spread: CBB Teams to Target This Week

Because most betting lines for college basketball games don’t drop until the night before, determining which teams have positive trends, impressive statistics, and ideal upcoming matchups can often be challenging for the non-professional bettor due to time restraints.

Our NCAAB Picks page hopes to bridge the gap between the frustrating wait on betting lines that we all experience for college basketball games and the time required to delve into a matchup to adequately evaluate it by highlighting the hottest teams in the country and in which particular spots they might be good to back.

While it can be challenging to predict exactly where a line might open, this page will be a helpful resource and hub for the most important statistics and trends, allowing you to make more informed betting decisions.

College Basketball Picks: Teams to Target ATS This Week

Wisconsin Badgers

2024-25 Record: 17-5 (7-4 in Big Ten)

Trends: 14-8 ATS, 14-8 Over Record

Stats:

• 11-1 record at home

• 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency

• 40.6% from 3 in their past three games 

• 38th in turnovers per game

• 1st in free throw percentage

Who could have thought that losing star forward AJ Storr to Kansas, Chucky Hepburn to Louisville, and Tyler Wahl to graduation wouldn’t sink the Wisconsin Badgers’ offense?

Wisconsin had a top 20 offense last season but has somehow been even better during its 2024-25 campaign, ranking seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom).

John Tonje, John Blackwell, and Max Klesmit have formed an exceptional backcourt trio, averaging a combined 44 points per game, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists per game.

What’s shocking about this Wisconsin team is the fact that they have performed so well with Klesmit having a horrendous shooting season.

Last season, Klesmit shot 44% from the field and 40% from behind the arc; however, his shooting percentages have dropped to 34% and 28%, respectively.

If Klesmit’s shooting comes around, this Wisconsin offense could surge even higher.

Regardless, the Badgers are still a real problem offensively, and they will have an advantageous matchup against the Indiana Hoosiers this week on their home floor.

After all, the Badgers have not lost to Indiana at home since 1998.

And Wisconsin has an impressive 11-1 record at Kohl Center, with a narrow, three-point loss against the Michigan Wolverines at the beginning of December being the sole loss on its home floor.

Since that loss, Wisconsin has won all five of its home games and four of them have been by double-digits.

Further, the Badgers have held their past three opponents to the fifth-lowest 2-point field goal percentage (37.4%) in the country, which is terrific news for when they face Indiana, a team that ranks 35th in 2-point rate.

While Wisconsin has struggled to defend the 3-point line recently, those struggles shouldn’t be a problem against the Hoosiers, considering they can only rely on Luke Goode to be a consistent source of 3-point shooting. 

As long as the Badgers stick close to him, they should be able to shut down this Indiana offense.

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Houston Cougars

2024-25 Record: 17-4 (9-1 in Big 12)

Trends: 12-9 ATS, 9-12 Over Record

Stats:

• 11-1 overall home record and 8-4 ATS at home

• 1st in opponent points per game at home (49.6 PPG)

• 3rd in opponent effective field goal percentage (39.9%)

• 2nd in offensive rebounding percentage at home (41.9%)

For several years, the Houston Cougars have been one of the best teams at home in college basketball.

In fact, since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, the Cougs are 44-3 on their home floor, one of the best marks in college basketball during that span.

This season has been more of the same, as Houston has an 11-1 record at Fertitta. 

Unfortunately for the Cougs, their most recent home game resulted in a narrow (and uncharacteristic) loss to the 22nd-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Houston put Texas Tech on the line 34 times and allowed the Red Raiders to shoot 40% from behind the arc, which is certainly a rarity given the Cougars rank first in opponent points per game and third in opponent effective field goal percentage nationally at home.

Head coach Kelvin Sampson understands the importance of protecting home court, which is why I expect the Cougars to make a statement in their next home game against Oklahoma State.

Simply put, it has been a brutal season thus far for the Cowboys, who boast an 11-10 overall record, including a 3-7 Big 12 record.

The Cowboys are 172nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot just 41.5% from the field and 30.3% from 3-point land on the road.

Further, they rank 343rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, an unfathomable ranking for a Big 12 team. 

This is a bad matchup for Oklahoma State; the Cowboys have one of the worst 2-point defenses in the country and, recently, Houston has emphasized its paint play (37th in 2-point rate in its past three games).

When the Cowboys are forced to collapse on Houston’s bigs, they will kick the ball out to their 3-point shooters like LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan, who have helped the Cougars shoot an astounding 42.9% from deep at home.

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Louisville Cardinals

2024-25 Record: 16-6 (9-2 in ACC)

Trends: 13-9 ATS, 7-15 Over Record

Stats:

• 30th in adjusted efficiency margin (KenPom)

• Winners of 10 of their past 11 games

• 42nd in offensive rebounding percentage

• 6th in assists per game in their past three outings 

The Louisville Cardinals have quietly had a strong season, sitting in third place in the ACC (9-2) and boasting a 16-6 overall record.

The Cardinals have come a long way from their 4-win 2022-23 season and their 8-win 2023-24 campaign, as they are now in line to make the NCAA Tournament.

While several players (and head coach Pat Kelsey) are to thank for Louisville getting back on track as a college basketball program, one player in particular has been sensational: Chucky Hepburn.

Hepburn had a solid start to his college basketball career with Wisconsin before transferring to Louisville; however, he is now averaging 15.1 points, 6.4 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.4 steals per game.

Hepburn’s point-of-attack defense, playmaking and creating for others, and scoring ability make him an incredibly valuable point guard in college.

Alongside Hepburn as double-digit scorers are Reyne Smith, Terrence Edwards Jr, and J’Vonne Hadley.

This Louisville offense has been even better recently, ranking sixth nationally in assists per game in the past three outings.

Unfortunately, the Cardinals just suffered a tough road loss to Georgia Tech.

However, they had won 10 consecutive games prior to that, which is impressive despite the current state of the ACC.

Now, Louisville will be in a terrific bounce-back spot at home against the Miami Hurricanes, who have managed to win merely one of their first 11 ACC games.

The Hurricanes made a Final Four appearance two seasons ago. Talk about a fall off.

Miami’s biggest issue is undoubtedly on the defensive end of the floor, where it ranks 345th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

On the road, the Hurricanes are allowing opponents to shoot 50% from the field and 39% from 3-point land.

With the way the Cardinals have been moving the ball offensively, this game should be an absolute beatdown.

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