NCAAB Picks Against the Spread: CBB Teams to Target This Week

Because most betting lines for college basketball games don’t drop until the night before, determining which teams have positive trends, impressive statistics, and ideal upcoming matchups can often be challenging for the non-professional bettor due to time restraints.

Our NCAAB Picks page hopes to bridge the gap between the frustrating wait on betting lines that we all experience for college basketball games and the time required to delve into a matchup to adequately evaluate it by highlighting the hottest teams in the country and in which particular spots they might be good to back.

While it can be challenging to predict exactly where a line might open, this page will be a helpful resource and hub for the most important statistics and trends, allowing you to make more informed betting decisions.

College Basketball Picks: Teams to Target ATS This Week

Alabama Crimson Tide

2024-25 Record: 3-1 (0-0 in SEC)

Trends: 1-3 ATS, 1-2-1 Over Record

Stats:

• 5th in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom)

• 19th in adjusted tempo (KenPom)

• 8th in BARTHAG (BartTorvik)

If the Crimson Tide shot even remotely well against the Boilermakers, it would have pulled off a huge road win against 13th-ranked Purdue in one of the most challenging environments in college basketball.

But they didn’t. Instead, Alabama finished the game hitting just nine of its 29 3-point attempts (31.0%). 

The Crimson Tide got plenty of clean looks on shots they would typically knock down but just couldn’t get them to fall outside of Latrell Wrightsell Jr (3-for-6 from behind the arc) and freshman guard Labaron Philon, who hit three of his four attempts from 3-point land.

The rest of the team shot just 15.8% from deep. Alabama also struggled to shoot the ball in the previous two games. 

However, last season’s 19th-ranked 3-point-shooting team returned two of their top sharpshooters, Mark Sears (43.6%) and Wrightsell (44.7%), and brought in plenty of elite talent, so expect this rough shooting stretch to end.

While Purdue’s defense did a fantastic job rotating on drives and communicating on off and on-ball screens, Alabama still had an abundance of open 3-pointers. So, this was not an indictment on the Crimson Tide’s offense whatsoever.

Further, Purdue effectively played the perfect game, getting 26 points from Trey Kaufman-Renn (6.4 PPG in 2023-24) and shooting 56.3% from behind the arc. Three of those 3s came from freshman CJ Cox, who was not projected to provide much of an impact this season. And, yet, here we are.

The Boilers also (somehow) only committed three turnovers. 

To reiterate, this game was not an indictment of Alabama. Now, the Crimson Tide will return home for a matchup with the Illinois Fighting Illini.

What can we expect?

Illinois is still piecing things together after losing its top eight leading scorers from its 2023-24 team.

Don’t get us wrong: Illinois has plenty of talent. But none of these guys have played together for more than a few games at this point.

There is also a lot to like about Illinois’s frontcourt size and talent, with 5-star freshman Will Riley, Croatian sensation Tomislav Ivisic, and Ben Humrichous. Still, with Alabama’s addition of Cliff Omoruyi this off-season, Bama won’t be bullied in the paint.

I expect Alabama to have a huge bounce-back win at home against Illinois.

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Houston Cougars

2024-25 Record: 2-1 (0-0 in Big 12)

Trends: 1-3 ATS, 1-2-1 Over Record

Stats:

• 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency in 2024-25, per KenPom

• 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency in 2024-25, per KenPom

• 10-5-2 ATS record at home in 2023-24

• 35.5% opponent effective field goal percentage in 2024-25

• +51.5 Average Scoring Margin (at home) in 2024-25 (first nationally)

We love an excellent buy-low spot on the Houston Cougars, especially as they return home from a tough loss against Auburn on a neutral court.

Last season, Houston held an incredible 10-5-2 record against the spread at home (18-0 in 2023-24) with the highest average scoring margin of any team in the country, despite playing in the Big 12, undoubtedly the toughest conference nationally.

Houston’s defense also reached new heights at home, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just above 40%, a truly outrageous number.

It has been more of the same this season, with Houston’s first two home games resulting in absolute beatdowns.

Now, the Cougars look to carry the momentum from their most recent 46-point win against Louisiana-Lafayette into this one against Hofstra.

Hofstra is no joke; it has a 4-0 record thus far, including an impressive road win against Seton Hall.

But the Pride have yet to face a team like Houston, which has an elite combination of offense and defense. 

Hofstra has some great rebounding guards, but Houston’s size and physicality will overwhelm them. And while the Pride were able to knock off the Pirates, they still failed to post 50 points. That will likely be the case again against Houston.

Additionally, keep in mind that Auburn might have snuck away with a neutral court win against Houston, but the Tigers are KenPom’s No. 1 team in adjusted efficiency margin. Plus, it took a heroic 21-point outing from a freshman guard who comes off the bench even to win that game.

Don’t let the AP rankings fool you; Auburn is probably even better this season than last. And a similar story can be painted for Houston. This week should prove that fact.

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Marquette Golden Eagles 

2024-25 Record: 4-0 (0-0 in Big East)

Trends: 3-1 ATS, 2-2 Over Record

Stats:

• 21st in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin

• 231st in 3P% this season (106th last season)

• 21st in turnovers per game

Analysis 

Purdue’s emotional win over the then-second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide at Mackey Arena on Friday was impressive.

However, as mentioned above, it took everything the Boilers had on both ends of the floor (plus some luck) to hold off Alabama.

Now, they have a short turnaround: They face the No. 15 Marquette Golden Eagles at Fiserv Forum on Tuesday. 

This is a perfect letdown spot for Purdue here.

This is not the same Boilermaker team that made the National Championship game last season,

Sure, the backcourt duo of Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith is back and very talented. Trey Kaufman-Renn also impressed with a 26-point outing against ‘Bama. But it is very challenging to count on anyone outside of those three offensively.

In fact, Purdue’s other two starters combined for zero points. That might work sometimes, but certainly not against this Marquette defense, which ranks 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom).

The Golden Eagles returned five key contributors from last year’s team, continuing to build cohesion within their program; unlike most other teams across the country, they do not rely heavily on the transfer portal or recruiting trail.

Kam Jones, David Joplin, Chase Ross, Stevie Mitchell, and Ben Gold all came back and have been in the program for multiple seasons. Jones (24.0 PPG) is, without a doubt, one of the best guards in the country.

Like Alabama, Marquette is fast-paced, ranking 93rd in adjusted tempo. That pace should limit the minutes that Purdue’s backup 7-2 center Will Berg gets in this game; he only played nine minutes against the Crimson Tide.

If Berg only gets limited tick, Purdue will play small ball again, which is an advantage for the Golden Eagles, who are undersized. 

Further, the Golden Eagles have more capable and consistent scorers than Purdue, which leans too heavily on Smith for offense. 

I like Shaka Smart and Marquette here, especially since we should eventually see some positive regression in its 3-point shooting as a team.

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