Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction and Odds: Boilermakers Need a Win to Stay Alive for No. 4 Seed

The No. 18 Purdue Boilermakers (21-9, 13-6) will close out the regular season in Champaign, IL, tonight with a game against the Illinois Fighting Illini (19-11, 11-8) at the State Farm Center. This Big Ten battle will get underway at 8 p.m. ET with coverage via Fox.

Purdue has the lead in the all-time series vs. Illinois, 107-90. The Boilermakers won the last matchup with the Fighting Illini 77-71 (Mar. 5, 2024; 77-71). Both teams ended up making deep Tournament runs, Illinois to the Elite Eight and Purdue to the NCAA Tournament game.

Illinois comes into this game off a pair of wins, a 20-point one vs. Iowa at home and on the road vs. Michigan. However, a trio of big losses preceded those wins: a 14-point defeat vs. No. 11 Michigan State, a 21-point loss to No. 11 Wisconsin, and a 43-point beat-down courtesy of No. 3 Duke.

Purdue vs. Illinois Odds for Friday, March 7

Odds for the Purdue vs Illinois matchup are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Sign up with Caesars with our promo code WSNDYW and claim your bonus: Bet $1, Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens.

Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction

The Boilermakers were a solid home team this season, going 14-2 straight up and 10-6 against the spread. But they did not fare nearly as well away from home, winning five of ten road games outright and six of ten ATS. Illinois had similar luck on the road (5-5 SU) but went 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS.

However, the OVER was a dismal 3-7 for Purdue in road games and 8-8 for the Fighting Illini at home.

Purdue Boilermakers Preview

A promising season turned borderline disastrous towards the end of the year when Purdue hit a wall. It started with a two-point loss to Michigan on the road, followed by a ten-point loss to Wisconsin at home. Then came a nine-point loss to the Spartans and a 15-point one to Indiana.

Just like that, they went from being contenders in the Big Ten with an 11-2 record to a middle-of-the-pack team with an 11-6 mark. They finally got back on track when they returned home with a ten-point win over UCLA and a 29-point one over Rutgers.

But now they are back on the road again and need a win to have a shot at the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and a double bye.

Getting a win over Illinois on the road will not be easy. They’ll need to do their best to shut down (or at least slow down) Illinois’s No. 11 (in the country) scoring offense. Slowing them down may be enough if they can take advantage of the Fighting Illini defense (t-No. 218, 73.3 ppg allowed).

Trey Kaufman-Renn leads the Boilermakers in scoring this season with 19.4 points per game and in rebounding (6.1 per game). Two additional players average double digits in scoring: Braden Smith (16.3 points per game) and Fletcher Loyer (14.1 points per game).

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Illinois Fighting Illini Preview

With five new players in the starting five this season, it is not hard to understand why the Illini have struggled with consistency at times this season. They’ve had some big games, like a 32-point win over No. 9 Oregon and, more recently, a 20-point win vs. No. 15 Michigan.

But then there are games like the 21-point loss to Wisconsin and the 43-point loss to Duke.

The secret to their success is simple, and kind of explains why they have issues with consistency. Illinois loves to shoot three-pointers. They easily lead the conference in attempts with 30.3 per game (good for fourth in the country).

However, while they try, they often don’t succeed. They may shoot a lot, but they don’t make a lot (second to last in the conference and No. 323 in the country at 30.8%.

If they look at how Purdue’s recent road losses played out, they’ll notice Purdue’s dreadful defense inside the paint.  Indiana made over 60% of their shots in the paint for 44 points, Michigan State wrang up 42 (56% shooting), and Wisconsin (36 points).

With an offense as efficient as Illinois has, if they can get on track early in the paint, it may not matter how many three-pointers the Fighting Illini make.

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Purdue vs. Illinois Betting Pick

• Purdue vs. Illinois Pick: Over 159.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Both teams are capable of playing great games, which makes it hard to decide who will win and if they’ll cover. However, there is one thing we can feel certain about: both teams can score some points.

As long as Purdue doesn’t revert back to the version of themselves that lost four straight, they’ll be fine. Assuming Illinois can succeed from a three-point range in the paint, they’ll have no problem scoring points.

Who will win? That’s a good question, and why am I betting on TOTAL and not the spread or moneyline?

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How to Watch Purdue vs. Illinois

• When: Friday, March 7 @ 8 p.m. ET

• Where: State Farm Center in Champaign, IL

• TV: Fox