Mountain West Tournament Predictions, Betting Odds, Favorites to Win 2025

• Congratulations to the New Mexico Lobos for winning the 2024-25 Mountain West Conference regular season championship. It’s their first since 2013 and fifth overall.

• The Lobos opened as the betting favorite to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament (+240), followed by Colorado State (+375 ), and Utah State (+425).

• Three of the last five regular season winners went on to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship.

They were not one of the betting favorites when the season got underway, but the New Mexico Lobos persevered and came out on top of the Mountain West Conference during the regular season. But now it is time for the important work—winning the conference tournament and earning an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament (aka March Madness).

New Mexico made the NCAA Tournament last year but hadn’t previously qualified since  2014 (they also won the conference tournament that year).

Winning the conference tournament is not absolutely necessary for a Mountain West team to make the NCAA Tournament, but it is the only way to guarantee a spot. Projections have as many as five Mountain West teams qualifying this year.

But it is always better to be in control of your own fate. If the odds are any indication, the Mountain West Conference Tournament will be a fun one to follow.

Mountain West Tournament Betting Odds

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The season began with San Diego State and Boise State as the betting favorites to win the Mountain West Conference (+400) followed by Nevada (+450), Utah State and New Mexico (+500), UNLV (+700), and Colorado State (+800).

Wyoming, Fresno State, San Jose State, and Air Force were never expected to be in contention with +10000 odds.

As the end of the regular season draws near, only five teams have a shot (all be it a very small one for some). But it appears that the conference regular season title is now New Mexico’s to lose. However, while the Lobos dominated the Aggies in their earlier meeting (82-63), Utah State was a 4.5-point favorite and led by six at the half.

Favorites to Win the 2025 Mountain West Conference: The Top Five

With six or seven games left for the five teams that still have a shot at winning the conference, let’s take a brief look at each team and their odds of winning the MWC this season:

New Mexico Lobos

• 2024-25 Record: 21-4, 13-1

• Most Notable Remaining Game(s): vs. Utah State on Sunday, Feb. 16

The Mountain West regular season title could be practically wrapped up if the Lobos can take care of business on Sunday when they host Utah State. However, the game may not be as easy as the score of the last one (82-63) would indicate. Utah State led at the half 36-30.

New Mexico’s adjustments, in combination with a meltdown by the Utah State defense, turned a close game into a blowout. But with the conference regular season title in play, don’t count on the Aggies to have another meltdown.

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Utah State Aggies

• 2024-25 Record: 22-3, 12-2

• Most Notable Remaining Game(s): vs. New Mexico on Sunday, Feb. 16

Utah State was in control of its own destiny before a second-half meltdown against New Mexico took that control away from them. But they aren’t done yet. They’ve been a good road team this season (7-1) and will undoubtedly be ready to take whatever New Mexico dishes out on Feb. 16.

If the Aggies and Lobos end the regular season with identical records, they’ll go down as co-champions. But from a betting perspective, the winner will be whoever wins the tiebreakers and is named the No. 1 seed in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

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San Diego State Aztecs

• 2024-25 Record: 16-6, 9-4

• Most Notable Remaining Game(s): vs. Boise State (Feb. 15), vs. Utah State (Feb. 22), and vs. New Mexico (Feb. 25)

The Aztecs will need to beat whoever wins between Utah State and New Mexico in their rematch and pray for help to have even a remote shot at winning the conference. It is more likely that they will impact who wins by winning one or both of their upcoming games versus Utah State and New Mexico.

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Boise State Broncos

• 2024-25 Record: 17-7, 9-4

• Most Notable Remaining Game(s): vs. San Diego State (Feb. 15), vs. New Mexico (Feb. 19), and vs. Utah State (Feb. 26)

The Broncos lost to all three earlier in the season, but they lost by two vs. Utah State, so that game was just a basket away from going their way. The San Diego State loss was not as close (eight points), but still a winnable game. However, they were crushed by New Mexico (84-65).

They have a better chance of playing spoiler than they do of winning the MWC.

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Colorado State Rams

• 2024-25 Record: 15-9, 9-4

• Most Notable Remaining Game(s): vs. Utah State (Mar. 1)

Colorado State has the least amount of control when it comes to whether they can win the conference. They have to win out, of course, which includes a game against Utah State. But then they’ll need other teams to do all the dirty work.

Since Boise State and San Diego State have games left against Utah State and New Mexico, they could get the help they need. But is that kind of long shot worth the risk? From what we’ve seen this season—no.

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Mountain West Conference: Picks and Predictions

Favorite - Utah State

I’m going to stick with the Aggies here because I think they’ll be ready to take care of business against the Lobos when they face off on Sunday. It wouldn’t be shocking to see San Diego State or Boise State give them a little help.

• Dark Horse - No Recommendation

• Longshot - No Recommendation

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MWC Betting Odds: History

The last decade has seen four schools taking turns winning the MWC: Utah State, San Diego State, Boise State, and Nevada. San Diego State has the most wins with five, their last coming in the 2022-23 season, their conference-leading ninth.

Since the conference began playing men’s basketball in the 1999-2000 season, ten different schools have won the regular season.. After San Diego State’s nine wins, BYU has the most with six, followed by Utah with five, New Mexico (4), Nevada (3), Wyoming, Utah State, and Boise State (2).

UNLV and Air Force have both won once (several seasons saw teams tie for the best record in the conference).

How to Read MWC Odds

If you have never placed a bet but are familiar with betting, you probably know how to read Mountain West Conference betting odds. But for those brand new to betting on sports, let’s review.

Odds are presented in one of three formats: fraction (7/4, ¼, etc.), decimal (1.91, 2.00, etc.), and American (+400, -110, etc.). Sites will let you choose the form odds will appear in, but the default setting for online sportsbooks in the U.S. is, of course, American.

American odds consist of three-digit numbers proceeded by a plus sign (+) to designate that team as the underdog or a minus sign (-) for the favorite. Let’s go over a couple of examples.

The odds Utah State will win the MWC are currently +350. At those odds, the Aggies have a 22.22% chance to win the conference. But if they do, a $100 wager will result in a $450 payday, your stake plus $350 in winnings.

But let’s say the regular season ends and New Mexico has crushed the competition. Their odds are currently -450. That means New Mexico has an 81.82% chance, but it will take a $450 wager to win $100.

You don’t have to bet $100, of course. To see what your payout would be with any stake and odds, check out our odds calculator.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the Mountain West Conference

All of the information we have covered is useful, but it means nothing if you don’t know which sportsbook to bet with. To save you from spending a lot of time researching the major sportsbooks, we’ve created solid, comprehensive reviews of each of the best online sportsbooks.

The following table will give you a brief review of what three of the more popular online sportsbooks have to offer:

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