Mountain West Tournament Predictions, Betting Odds, Favorites to Win 2025

• New Mexico won four games in the Mountain West Tournament against Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State to secure the conference championship.

• The Lobos recorded their fifth Mountain West Tournament championship in 2024, only two behind the San Diego State Aztecs for the most in the MWC.

• The Mountain West put six teams in the 2024 NCAA Tournament after a strong season for the conference.

The Mountain West was an absolute bloodbath in the 2023-24 regular season, with upsets seemingly every other night; it was indeed a testament to the conference’s competitiveness and parity last year. 

However, the conference’s performance in the 2024 NCAA Tournament was underwhelming, to say the least. In fact, the Mountain West finished with a 4-6 record (.400 winning percentage), which was the second-worst winning percentage for conferences with at least two teams, trailing only the AAC.

Nonetheless, this conference remains one of the more competitive in the country, as it ranked seventh in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin for the average team in the conference that finished at least .500. 

Which Mountain West team will take home the MWC Tournament trophy in 2025? Let’s list our favorites to run the table in the conference tournament below!

Mountain West Tournament Betting Odds

Since the 2024-25 regular season has yet to begin, the Mountain West Tournament odds will not be available. Most major sportsbooks might drop the Mountain West Tournament odds in February or early March because they do not know how teams will perform in the regular season or their seeding in the conference tournament.

Favorites to Win the 2025 Mountain West Tournament

Boise State Broncos

The return of Tyson Degenhart (16.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG) alone would keep the Boise State Broncos (22-11, 13-5 in MWC last season) in the Mountain West Conference Tournament picture entering the 2024-25 season; however, the Broncos were also able to bring back O’mar Stanley (12.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG), giving them two All-Mountain West returners to build around.

The departure of Chibuzo Agbo (USC) and Roddie Anderson III hurts, considering they were the second and fifth-leading scorers, respectively. Still, head coach Leon Rice mitigated the damage by bringing in star point guard Alvaro Cardenas, a transfer from San Jose State University. 

Cardenas posted an impressive 13.2 points per game and 5.5 assists per game last season for the Spartans, proving he can be a high-impact lead guard at a higher level, including the Mountain West. 

With Cardenas running the show and Degenhart and Stanley pouring in points and pulling down all of the rebounds, the Broncos would already be considered a favorite, but they have even more talent coming into the program.

Forward Javan Buchanan and big man Dylan Anderson will help round out the Broncos’ starting lineup. Between Anderson, Degenhart, and Stanley, Boise State will have one of the nation’s best rebounding and defensive frontcourts. However, its top-heavy roster will be vulnerable to injury risk in the long term and foul trouble in the short term, as the Broncos will not have much talent off the bench. 

Last season, injuries were non-issues, so avoiding them and staying out of foul trouble will be paramount. If they can avoid those potential pitfalls, we can expect a deep run in the Mountain West Conference Tournament and another NCAA Tournament berth behind Degenhart and company this season. 

Bet on Boise State Broncos at FanDuel

Nevada Wolf Pack

Don’t think that losing the dynamic duo of Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear, who combined for roughly 33 points, eight rebounds, and six assists per game, will sink head coach Steve Alford and the Nevada Wolf Pack. 

Alford got busy in the transfer portal, snagging Cal Poly’s Kobe Sanders (19.6 PPG, 3.2 APG), Fresno State’s Xavier DuSell (11.5 PPG), Texas State’s Brandon Love (10.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG), Oklahoma State’s Justin McBride, Evansville’s Chuck Bailey III, and Rice’s Alem Huseinovic. 

All of those players join returners Nick Davidson (12.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG), Tre Coleman (8.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.8 APG), KJ Hymes (5.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG), and Daniel Foster (4.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG) to form an early MWC favorite.

Sanders will be the X-Factor for Nevada. If he can build on his efficient scoring (45.9% shooting from the field during the 2023-24 season), he could fit seamlessly into Jarod Lucas’s spot as a big guard who can score in bunches and shoot at a high percentage.

The Wolf Pack have a surprising amount of scoring and talent transferring and returning despite losing Lucas and Blackshear. In fact, they have more than 30 points per game coming back and close to 50 points per game transferring into the program, giving them a team with a ton of production from last season.

It will take a bit of time for these players to develop the necessary cohesion and chemistry needed to compete at the top of the Mountain West Conference, but by the time the MWC Tournament rolls around, they will be very much in the picture. They also have the depth, experience, offense, and coaching needed to make a run in the NCAA Tournament.

Bet on Nevada Wolf Pack at FanDuel

New Mexico Lobos

The New Mexico Lobos, KenPom’s 29th-ranked team from last season, will again be in Mountain West Conference Tournament contention. Head coach Richard Pitino and his lightning-fast team strung together four consecutive wins against Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State to win their fifth MWC Tournament.

Still, New Mexico suffered a first-round loss in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, likely because it just ran out of steam after an emotional conference tournament ride; however, the Lobos have a chance to be a top team in the Mountain West with Donovan Dent (14.1 PPG, 5.4 APG, 2.5 RPG, 1.5 SPG), Nelly Junior Joseph (8.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG), Mustapha Amzil (6.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG), and Tru Washington (6.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.4 SPG) returning to play another season for the program. 

Unfortunately, the Lobos will lose some crucial talent and chemistry from last year’s squad. Jaelen House (15.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.5 APG) will be playing professionally in the States or overseas. Jamal Mashburn Jr. (14.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG) opted to transfer to the AAC to join the Temple Owls, and J.T. Toppin (12.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG) decided to take his talents to Texas Tech.

Pitino prepared for these potential departures, though, prioritizing the transfer portal to snag North Texas guard C.J. Noland (10.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.0 APG), Arizona power forward Filip Borovicanin (2.3 PPG, 1.6 RPG), and BYU forward Atiki Ally Atiki (4.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG). 

Despite the Lobos’ stifling interior defense (23rd in block percentage) and excellent rebounding (44th in total rebounding rate) last season, they did have a glaring weakness that needs to be improved upon entering the 2024-25 campaign: offense. 

New Mexico relied on its pace to score in transition; however, its half-court offense was inefficient, exemplified by House’s (37.4% from the field) and Mashburn’s (36.0% from the field) shooting percentages from the field. The Lobos’ 3-point percentage (32.7%) will also have to take a sizable leap, but there’s plenty of talent on this roster for that to be possible.

Bet on New Mexico Lobos at FanDuel

My Pick: Boise State Broncos

It would not be shocking to see Boise State spend some time in the A.P. Top 25 this season after returning two All-Mountain West players, including Tyson Degenhart, who is fresh off a roughly 17-point, 6-rebound-per-game campaign in the 2023-24 season. O’Mar Stanley (12.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG) will also have the latitude to expand his overall offensive game alongside Degenhart, and that should not be challenging with point guard Alvaro Cardenas transferring into the program. 

Last season, one weakness for the Broncos was that they did not have an elite lead guard, as Cam Martin averaged merely 2.4 assists per game. Cardenas nearly dished out six assists per game for a far less talented San Jose State team last season, so he should have no issues reaching that number, or even eclipsing it, in the 2024-25 regular season.

Bet on Boise State Broncos at FanDuel

Who Won the Mountain West Tournament in 2024?

New Mexico ran the table in the 2024 Mountain West Tournament, knocking off the Air Force Falcons, Boise State Broncos, Colorado State Rams, and San Diego State Aztecs to log their fifth overall MWC Tournament championship. The Lobos defeated three of their four Mountain West Conference Tournament opponents by double-digits and the only team that kept it to single-digits (San Diego State) still lost by seven points.

New Mexico got fantastic play from its core of Jaelen House, Donovan Dent, Jamal Mashburn Jr., and J.T. Toppin. House’s 28-point outing in the MWC Tournament championship helped him secure the MWC Tournament MVP.

Mountain West Tournament History

Below is a table of the past 15 Mountain West Tournament champions, including the New Mexico Lobos, who just won the conference tournament in 2024 after knocking off No. 11 Air Force, No. 3 Boise State, No. 7 Colorado State, and No. 5 San Diego State. 

Last season was one of the more competitive years in recent memory for the Mountain West, as the conference put six teams in the NCAA Tournament, which tied the Big Ten and finished with one team more than the ACC!

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the Mountain West Tournament 

Choosing the best sportsbook for betting on the Mountain West Tournament and any other sport or team comes down to a list of factors. Everyone has different preferences, but the most common factors for selecting a primary sportsbook usually come down to the brand name (i.e., Caesars, BetMGM, etc…), user interface, navigability, first-time user welcome bonuses, withdrawal options and times, payment options, odds favorability, and overall selection of sports, players, teams, and props that you can bet on.

Below is a basic table that breaks down some of these factors for major sportsbooks like FanDuel, Caesars, and BetMGM; however, there are a ton of other options for sportsbooks. Still, these are three of our favorites and will provide any potential user with a terrific experience.

How to Read Mountain West Tournament Odds

To bet on the Mountain West Conference Tournament or any sports in general, you first have to be able to read American betting odds. It might initially seem confusing, but it is super simple once explained.

When you see betting odds, there will always be a plus (+) sign or a minus (-) sign in front of them. That indicates whether the player or team you are betting on is a favorite (greater than 50% implied probability of winning) or an underdog (less than 50% implied probability of winning). If the betting odds have a minus (-) sign in front of them, then the team or player is a favorite, while a plus (+) sign in front of the odds indicates the team or player is an underdog.

Because favorites are likelier to win, they don’t pay out as much as an underdog would. For example, if the New Mexico Lobos have -120 odds to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament, you would have to bet $120 to win $100. Conversely, if the Boise State Broncos are +200 underdogs, you only have to bet $100 to win $200 since they are less likely to win.