Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction: Intrastate Rivalry Renewed

The No. 14 Michigan State Spartans (21-5, 12-3) will be in Ann Arbor today for a Big Ten matchup against their hated rival, the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines (20-5, 12-2).

Michigan State will take a two-game winning streak into tonight’s game. After going 18-2 through January, Michigan State has gone 3-3 in February. They dropped the first two in February, to USC and UCLA, but have gone 3-1 in their last four.

As for Michigan, the Wolverines have been on a roll since suffering their worst defeat of the season against Purdue on Jan. 24 (91-64). Since then, with an 86-83 win over Ohio State last Sunday, they’ve won six in a row.

However, all six have been tight, competitive games decided by four points or less.

Who’s going to win? We can’t tell you that, but check out our preview for Michigan State vs. Michigan for our best betting picks for this Big Ten rivalry game.

Michigan State vs. Michigan Odds for Friday, February 21

The Spartans have been solid against the spread at 16-9-1 (64 percent). They’ve done well on the road (4-2-1 ATS, 66.7 percent) and as the underdog (3-1-1 ATS, 75 percent). Michigan hasn’t had as much luck (12-13, 48 percent), 6-6 at home (50 percent), and 9-12 when the favorite (42.9 percent)

Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction

Michigan State Spartans Preview

The Spartans hit a couple of bumps in the road early in the season with a loss to then-No. 1 Kansas in the third game of the season and another loss a couple of weeks later to Memphis to fall to 5-2. But then they went on a roll, a 13-game roll, to be precise, that saw them become a top-ten team at 18-2.

They were undefeated in conference play, and the sky appeared to be the limit. That is, until it came crashing down with back-to-back losses to USC and UCLA on the road. It looked like they bounced back in their next game, an 86-74 win over Oregon. But then they lost to a mediocre Indiana team at home.

With three losses in four games, the sky appeared to be falling. But then they took down Illinois on the road (79-65) and beat No. 13 Purdue at home (75-66).

After struggling from three-point range for the bulk of the season, the Spartans focused more on the inside game in both contests. However, it is not going to be easy to work that strategy against a Michigan team that has a size advantage and plays an excellent inside game.

But the Spartans are one of the best rebounding teams in the Big Ten. They’ll limit Michigan’s second-chance scoring, which could be the key to beating the Wolverines.

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Michigan Wolverines Preview

After going 8-24 last season, the university decided it was time to move on from then-head coach Juwan Howard. Of course, when coaches get let go, it is not unheard of for players to transfer out, and the Wolverines lost a handful of players.

Between the portal (five players) and graduation (four players), new head coach Dusty May (former head coach of Florida Atlantic) practically had to rebuild his team from scratch.

At 12-2 in conference play (20-5 overall), the Wolverines have surpassed expectations. With six games to go, including two against Michigan State, they are in control of their own fate and could take home the regular season conference title.

But with just a half-game lead over the Spartans, there is no room for error. That means Michigan will need big games from its frontcourt players, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. The two of them average 28+ points and 16+ rebounds per game.

But their defense is more important than their scoring production. They’ll need to control the paint against this Michigan State team and try to force the Spartans to rely more on their perimeter shooting than they want to.

Michigan is ranked No. 61 in the nation at three-point defense (31.2 percent). The Spartans are one of the worst three-point shooters in the country (No. 347, 29.1 percent).

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Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Pick

Michigan State vs. Michigan Pick: Under 152.5 (-105) at BetMGM

If you are wondering which game you should watch this weekend, look no further. From a viewer's perspective, this matchup should be a great one. But from a bettor's perspective, it is a bit tougher to call.

Both teams want to control the paint. Michigan has a talented, big frontcourt, including Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, who are up to the task. But Michigan State has depth to keep the pressure on them, possibly wearing them down.

The winner will probably be whoever ends up controlling the inside game. It is hard to say which will do it, which tells us one thing: there’s a really good chance we will have a low-scoring game between these two teams.

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