Michigan State vs. Iowa Prediction and Odds: Spartans Going for Win No. 25

The No. 8 Michigan State Spartans (24-15, 15-3) will try to win their five-game win streak alive when they face the Iowa Hawkeyes (15-14, 6-12) tonight at the Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, IA, with the action scheduled to start at 8 p.m. ET. Fans can find coverage via FS1.

Should the Spartans end up being victorious at the end of the night, it will be their 25th win. The last time they won 25 games during the regular season was 2019. They went on to win the Big Ten Tournament, made it to the Final Four, and finished the season ranked No. 5 in the AP Poll.

However, Iowa has owned the Spartans in recent years, winning five of the last six meetings between them, including the previous two. But they’ve had a good run of bad luck of late, losing four of their previous five. 

Their top 20 offense struggled in the last two, scoring 20+ points below their season average.

Michigan State vs. Iowa Odds for Saturday, March 6

Odds for Michigan State vs. Iowa are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Sign up with Caesars with our promo code WSNDYW and claim your bonus: Bet $1, Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens.

Michigan State vs. Iowa Prediction

Michigan State has been a solid road team in conference play this year, going 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS but 2-2 ATS when they were the betting favorite. Iowa wasn’t bad when playing at home, winning 12 games to five losses, but they did not do as well against the spread (6-10-1).

When the underdog at home, Iowa went 0-3-1 ATS. The OVER was 9-8 for them at home and 3-6 for Michigan State.

Michigan State Spartans Preview

Michigan State was expected to be a ‘good’ team this year. But their preseason odds of winning the Big Ten gave them just an 11.11% chance to win the conference (fifth best). Now, all they need to do is beat Iowa, and they can lock down the Big Ten regular season title.

But follow a win over Iowa with another victory against Michigan, and the Spartans win their first outright regular season conference title since the 2019-20 season.

Tom Izzo will likely have his team do what it does best to get the win—play suffocating defense. They’ve been allowing just 66.6 points per game, have one of the best perimeter defenses in the country (No. 4 three-point percentage defense at 28.2%), and allow 39.9% from the floor in general.

In their three losses in conference play, the issue wasn’t really their defense. They held USC to 70 points, UCLA to 63, and Indiana to 71. It was the offensive end of the court that let them down, as the Spartans scored 64, 61, and 67 points in those games, well below their season average (78 ppg).

It is undoubtedly a game Michigan State can win. But with a big game against Michigan on the horizon, the conference tournament,  and March Madness, will they have the focus they need to put the Hawkeyes away before they steal a win?

Use code WSNDYW and Double Your Winnings at Caesars

Iowa Hawkeyes Preview

The Hawkeyes got off to a decent start to the season, going 10-3, 1-1, before hitting the bulk of their conference schedule. But they just couldn’t get any traction once their Big Ten schedule kicked in. If they lost a game, it was followed by another loss and sometimes a third.

They had one two-game winning streak in conference play, otherwise, every win was sandwiched between two losses.

What has the problem been? It was certainly not their offense. The Hawkeyes have averaged 82.2 points per game this season, good enough to rank No. 20 in the nation. However, while they could play great on the offensive end, they were dreadful on the defensive (No. 332, 79.1 ppg allowed).

Of their 14 losses, they scored 80+ points in five of them. If your offense puts 80+ points on the scoreboard, then the game was absolutely one your team could have won. Had they won those five and were entering tonight’s game with a 20-9 record, the outlook on this game would be different.

Bet $1 at Caesars and Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens

Michigan State vs. Iowa Betting Pick

• Michigan State vs. Iowa Pick: Michigan State -7 (-110) at Caesars

If Iowa still had its leading scorer in the lineup, Owen Farmer (16.7 points per game) in the lineup it might have been worth considering taking the Hawkeyes and the points. Since his last game (Jan. 27), Iowa has scored more than 80 points just once in nine games and 70+ in five.

But Farmer is out, and the Iowa offense has not been the same without him. With how well Michigan State is playing on defense, Iowa will not keep up. Michigan State will lead by at least seven at the half and pull away in the second for a double-digit win.

Bet $1 at Caesars and Double Your Winnings

How to Watch Michigan State vs. Iowa

• When: Saturday, March 6  @ 8 p.m. ET

• Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, IA

• Coverage: FS1