FAU led the AAC in scoring (82.5 PPG) and field goal percentage (48.1%)
Northwestern has victories over Purdue, Dayton, Michigan State, and Illinois
Boo Buie is making 44.3% of his three-point attempts
After a miraculous Final Four run last season, the Florida Atlantic Owls are back in the NCAA Tournament. While their seed is higher than last year, they are coming off a disappointing season that saw them lose the AAC regular and tournament titles. Now, they’ll have to face a battle-tested Northwestern team that could cap off a disappointing season.
Below, we will share the latest odds and insights for today’s matchup and our favorite bet.
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The Owls came into this season with a lot of hype after their Final Four appearance. Unfortunately, that hype did not translate into the same level of success this year. Some of that can be attributed to a move to the AAC, but the team still lacks the same edge they had last year.
FAU’s biggest strength is their ability to score. They led the AAC in scoring (82.5 PPG) and field goal percentage (48.1%). However, they have been less impressive on defense, finishing fifth in opponent scoring. The AAC had some high-scoring programs, but none were good enough to secure an at-large bid to the tournament.
While FAU has wins against Arizona and Texas A&M on neutral courts, but they struggled in AAC road games. They dropped road games to Charlotte, UAB, South Florida, Memphis, and a neutral-court game to Temple. Those losses are far more recent than their impressive non-conference wins, raising a red flag for their momentum coming into March Madness.
While Northwestern’s record and states don’t jump off the page, their tournament resume is impressive. They finished in fourth in a competitive Big Ten, while posting four wins against quadrant one teams. That includes victories over Purdue, Dayton, Michigan State, and Illinois. While consistency hasn’t been their strong suit, their veteran roster makes them a dangerous threat in March Madness.
One reason we like Northwestern to get the win is guard Boo Buie. The fifth-year senior is having his best campaign yet, leading the team in scoring (19.2 PPG), assists (5.1 APG), and three-point percentage (44.3%). A veteran guard who can shoot that effectively from deep is a massive weapon in the NCAA Tournament, and we see it leading to a win today.
If there is one red flag for Northwestern, it's their +4.6 point differential. It's a sign that this team was hard to trust during the regular season, and it may be enough to scare bettors away today.
We have been following the AAC closely this season, and we don’t trust the Owls. They struggled in games against the conference’s top teams, and Northwestern will present far more of a challenge. While FAU has experience from last season’s run, Northwestern has a team filled with veterans. While they have come confusing losses, but their wins show a high ceiling for the Wildcats.
Given how well Buie has been playing, we think he will torch a shaky FAU offense, leading the Wildcats to a first-round upset.
When: Thursday, March 21 at 9:55 PM EST
Where: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY
TV: CBS
Streaming: March Madness Live App, MAX
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