Cooper Flagg Injury Shifts March Madness Futures Odds

Duke is no longer the outright favorite in March Madness odds at top college basketball betting sites following an injury to freshman sensation Cooper Flagg.

The ACC Player of the Year and projected first-overall pick in the upcoming NBA Draft went down clutching his ankle with less than three minutes remaining in the first half of Thursday’s win over Georgia Tech in the ACC Quarterfinal. Flagg did not return to the game and was seen in a wheelchair inside the arena. 

Duke, the number-one team in the country, opened the day as the consensus March Madness betting favorite just ahead of Auburn. According to Kalshi, Duke also went from having a 75 to 44 percent chance to win the ACC Tournament before and after Flagg’s injury.

Flagg Injury Reshapes March Madness Odds

FanDuel Sportsbook listed Duke as a +320 favorite (23.8 percent implied chance) in odds to win March Madness on the morning of Thursday, March 13.

Even after Duke came from behind to beat GT, 78-70, those odds had fallen to +350 and set them even with Auburn. 

That’s good news for the sportsbooks. Senior sports betting analyst for Yahoo Sports, Ben Fawkes, said on X (formerly Twitter) on Tuesday, March 11 that Duke was BetMGM’s biggest liability.

While it’s unclear if that’s the same at all other sportsbooks, it’s reasonable to assume the Blue Devils, who posted the highest average point differential, would be at or near the top of the list of highest-liability schools.

bet365 still has the most faith in Duke, giving them +325 odds to emerge victorious in the annual NCAA Tournament. However, BetMGM showed a considerable decline in trust for the Blue Devils, demoting them to +375 and promoting Auburn to +325.

DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook also moved Duke down to +360, just behind Auburn at +350, while BetRivers left both Duke and Auburn at +300.

Teams such as Florida and Houston also surged in odds following the injury. All major college basketball betting sites except for BetMGM have the Gators at +700, while BetMGM has them at +600.

Fawkes also reported that one BetMGM bettor wagered $100,000 on Florida at +900 odds. Their updated odds suggest they now have a 14.3 percent chance to win the tournament instead of the 10 percent chance they had when the bet was placed.

Houston is also up to +650 at Caesars and BetRivers, +700 at BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel, and +750 at bet365.

Alabama rounds out the top five at +1000 on BetRivers, +1100 on bet365, DraftKings, and FanDuel, and +1200 at BetMGM and Caesars.

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An Duke Survive March Madness Without Flagg?

As a projected number-one seed in March Madness, Duke has high expectations to meet.

Top seeds won 25 of 39 (64.1 percent) NCAA Tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. They also took 88 of 152 (57.9 percent) of possible Final Four spots, meaning that they are more likely to make the penultimate round than a coin is to land on heads or tails.

At least one top seed made the Final Four in 35 of the 38 tournaments, although 2023 was one of three times they were excluded. 

Last year’s bracket saw two top seeds, UConn and Purdue, reach the Final Four. Both also advanced to the national championship game where UConn prevailed, 75-60. 

As strong of a precedent as that is, losing Flagg would greatly diminish the Blue Devils’ firepower on both ends. The 6-foot-9 Maine native leads his team in points (19.4), rebounds (7.6), assists (4.2), steals (1.5), and blocks (1.3) and shot 49.4 percent from the field and 37.7 percent from three.

The 6-foot-9 forward was also the only Duke player who was on the court for more than 30 minutes per game, and he did not miss a game this season.

To his teammates’ credit, they beat Georgia Tech 61-41 over the final 22:46 of Thursday's game after he left with an injury.

Depending on the severity of his injury, Flagg could be back in time for the start of the tournament or done for the year.

The return to play time for a regular ankle roll can be up to a week. A Grade 1 sprain would take 1-2 weeks, a Grade 2 sprain would take 2-6 weeks, and a Grade 3 sprain or any type of fracture would likely put him out for the entire tournament.

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